Economic reports to be overshadowed by escalating Iran war

Hello and welcome to the working week.

If it is not too obvious to say, the war in Iran and the wider Middle East is set to dominate the news agenda again over the coming days. I cannot tell you how because military campaigns are not announced in advance. However, you can get insights from my colleagues who are heavily involved in the reporting of events as they will be taking questions about the political, military and diplomatic calculations behind the conflict in a live FT subscriber webinar on Tuesday from 1pm GMT. Register and send your questions here.

One of the issues with the Iran war dominating the headlines is that it affects interpretation of the economic data, which so often is a lagging indicator of the current state of affairs. That is likely to be the case with the February inflation figures produced by the US, China and Germany this week. Also for the US, The Conference Board publishes its February Employment Trends Index on Monday. GDP estimates will be published, but again recording a time before the start of the US and Israeli air strikes. These include updated fourth-quarter figures from the US and Japan, while the UK makes a first stab at economic growth in January.

It’s a mixed bag of company reports this week, but they include several market leaders. Oracle will report third-quarter numbers on Tuesday, two days before the 40th anniversary of its initial public offering. Having seen a lot of technology innovations in that time, the software and services business has bet big on today’s hot market, AI, but the growing debt burden to finance this investment has weighed on its stock and bond prices in the past few months.

Lego, which provides full-year figures on Tuesday, has been bucking the wider slowdown in the toys sector, partly by appealing to the “kidult” market of grown men and women with the financial means to consider splashing out on a £735 Lego Millennium Falcon. In recent weeks Lego has been in the news for embracing the digital revolution with Smart Bricks, to a mixed reception.

The question for British high street favourite John Lewis, which reports on Thursday, is when the employee-owned business will at last revive the annual bonus for staff, which has not been paid since 2022. The recent pay increase handed out to shop floor staff and the fact that the retailer forecast an increase in profit last September suggest that it might be regaining its status as the middle-class department store of choice. More details on the other companies reporting this week below.

One more thing . . . 

Monday is the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s Enlightenment masterpiece, The Wealth of Nations, an inspiration for me while studying economics at university. It gave me an excuse to trawl the FT archives for this piece from 2018 on how Smith would fix our 21st-century capitalism. My current read is Middlemarch, a book I have long felt I should have read, but frankly I’m beginning to regret starting.

Can you recommend me a good replacement book? What can we do to fix the current problem of people not reading? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• IMF Managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives the keynote speech at the Future of Global Economy among Fluid International Economic and Monetary Order symposium during her visit to Japan

• China: February consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Germany: January production index

• UK: KPMG/REC UK Report on Jobs

• US: The Conference Board February Employment Trends Index

• Earnings calls: Korn Ferry Q3

Tuesday

• Climate and Energy Summit 2026, a two-day event held online and in person by Chatham House in London

• China: January trade data

• Japan: updated Q4 GDP estimate

• South Africa: Q4 GDP estimate

• South Korea: Q4 GDP estimate

• UK: British Retail Consortium February Retail Sales Monitor

• Earnings calls: Domino’s Pizza FY, Hugo Boss FY, Jardine Matheson FY, Lego FY, Lindt FY, Oracle Q3, Partners FY, Persimmon FY, Rotork FY, Saudi Aramco FY, Spirax FY, Volkswagen FY

Wednesday

• Federal Reserve vice-chair for supervision Michelle Bowman speaks about efforts to update and right-size the bank regulatory rule book on the last day of the American Bankers Association annual Washington summit

• The latest Apple smartphone, the iPhone 17e, goes on the market internationally

• OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

• Germany: February CPI and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• US: February CPI inflation rate, plus real earnings data

• Earnings calls: 4 imprint FY, Balfour Beatty FY, The Campbell’s Company Q2, Cathay Pacific FY, Franco Nevada FY, The Gym Group FY, Hill & Smith FY, Inditex FY, London Gatwick Airport FY, Kloeckner & Co FY, Legal & General FY, Rheinmetall Q4/FY

Thursday

• Federal Reserve vice-chair for supervision Michelle Bowman, who announced a comprehensive review of the bank capital framework when she took on the role last year, explains the changes she has made, talking about Basel III and Bank Capital Rules at the Cato Institute in Washington

• Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivers opening remarks at the Financial Stability Board payments summit in London

• IEA Oil Market Report

• Germany: Ifo Economic Forecast Spring Report

• Turkey: interest rate decision

• UK: Rics Residential Market Survey

• Earnings calls: Adobe Q1, BMW FY, Brenntag FY, Computacenter FY, Dollar General Q4/FY, Geberit FY, Helios Towers FY, Informa FY, John Lewis Partnership FY, Restore FY, RTL FY, RWE FY, Savills FY, Swiss Life FY, TP ICAP FY, Vivendi FY

Friday

• EU: Eurostat Q4 labour market data, plus January industrial production figures

• France: February CPI inflation rate data

• UK: January monthly GDP estimate, production index and Great Britain construction output

• US: updated Q4/2025 GDP estimate, plus January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts)

• Earnings calls: Berkeley trading update, Lennar Q1

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• 250th anniversary of Scottish economist and philosopher Adam Smith publishing his book, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, in Great Britain

• UK: Commonwealth Day service at Westminster Abbey marking the annual celebration of the Commonwealth of Nations. King Charles and Queen Camilla, and the Prince and Princess of Wales, are expected to attend

• US: the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that will put an EchoStar 25 broadcast communications satellite into geostationary orbit is scheduled to launch from Cape Canaveral in Florida at 11.14pm local time

Tuesday

• Poland: Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf and Queen Silvia begin a three-day state visit, hosted by Polish President Karol Nawrocki

• UK: start of four days of horseracing at the Cheltenham Festival, part of the National Hunt calendar

• US: 150th anniversary of Alexander Graham Bell speaking for the first time by telephone to his assistant Thomas Watson in an adjacent room: “Mr Watson, come here, I want to see you.”

Wednesday

• China: scheduled last day of this year’s National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) annual session, for China’s top political advisory body

• UK: Chancellor Rachel Reeves answers questions on her Spring Statement from members of the Treasury Committee. Also in Westminster, the Work and Pensions Committee takes evidence on policies that have affected the employability of young people, including apprenticeships and the setting of the national minimum wage

Thursday

• Canada: the Association for Asian Studies annual conference begins in Vancouver, running until Sunday, to discuss Asia’s past, present and future

Friday

Saturday

• UK: conclusion of the Six Nations rugby tournament

• US: winners announced for the 46th Golden Raspberry Awards, aka the Razzie Awards, celebrating the worst films and performances of the year

Sunday

• Republic of the Congo: presidential election

• France: first round of mayoral elections

• Italy: Milano Cortina Paralympic Winter Games conclude

• Kazakhstan: referendum on new constitution

• UK: Mothering Sunday

• US: 98th Academy Awards, aka the Oscars, take place in the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles

• Vietnam: parliamentary and local elections