AI-doom scenarios are going viral because there are no easy public-policy responses to the problem of large-scale but not universal technological unemployment. Society’s best hope is a Goldilocks scenario, where the AI rollout is not too fast, and where the industry is not too oligopolistic.
CHICAGO – The small equity-research shop Citrini recently sent a panic through financial markets when it outlined a scenario in which AI ends most white-collar employment by 2028, with dire consequences for the broader economy. But this forecast is surely too pessimistic in some respects. Outside a few sectors, like software, frictions to adoption and sheer inertia will probably slow the pace of change. This has always been the case. For example, although automated telephone exchanges were possible in the 1920s, the last human telephone operator in the United States was not replaced until the 1980s.
CHICAGO – The small equity-research shop Citrini recently sent a panic through financial markets when it outlined a scenario in which AI ends most white-collar employment by 2028, with dire consequences for the broader economy. But this forecast is surely too pessimistic in some respects. Outside a few sectors, like software, frictions to adoption and sheer inertia will probably slow the pace of change. This has always been the case. For example, although automated telephone exchanges were possible in the 1920s, the last human telephone operator in the United States was not replaced until the 1980s.