Qualification for the 2026 Kentucky Derby is determined by a series of prep races. With the first leg of the road’s championship series complete, Paladin and Incredibolt are among the top 2026 Kentucky Derby horses with 60 points apiece. The former is undefeated across three starts, while the latter is coming off a win in the Virginia Derby on March 14. However, you should look at more than just the results of these prep events when making 2026 Kentucky Derby picks.
Last year, Burnham Square topped the Road to the Kentucky Derby standings before finishing sixth in the Run for the Roses, while Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty was just sixth during the prep races. For the Kentucky Derby 2026 on Saturday, May 2 from Churchill Downs, Paladin is the 9-1 favorite, followed by Nearly (10-1). Incredibolt is grouped with “all other 3-year-olds” with 12-1 Kentucky Derby odds. Before making any 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
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A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 12 times in the last 17 years. He also predicted the top three 2025 Kentucky Derby finishers in the correct order and called the exacta in last year’s Preakness. Anyone who has followed him on horse racing betting sites could be way up.
Now, with the 2026 Kentucky Derby approaching and horse racing futures odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2026 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: He doesn’t have the favorite, Paladin (9-1), winning. The Chad Brown-trained horse was sired by Gun Runner, while his damsire is Tapit, both of whom were Grade 1 winners. However, none of those G1 victories came at the Kentucky Derby, despite each having short odds. Both Gun Runner and Tapit were the third-favorites in their respective Kentucky Derby races, and Gun Runner placed third in the 2016 race, while Tapit was a disappointing ninth at the 2004 Derby.
Paladin also hasn’t progressed in terms of speed over his three career starts. His maiden saw him post a 112 speed figure back in Oct. 2025, but he then dropped to a 108 speed at the Remsen Stakes in December, despite it being a longer distance. He could then only match his 112 speed figure in his last start in February, and he’s raced only on fast track conditions. Paladin possibly having already peaked as a racehorse is yet another reason to avoid him with Kentucky Derby bets. See who to back at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Canaletto, even though he’s a longshot at 15-1. Canaletto opened his career in January with a win at Gulfstream Park, beating Lost Money and Autobahn in a one-mile race. He stepped up in competition to the Tampa Bay Derby last week and came up a bit short, finishing third behind The Puma and Further Ado.
Demling, however, is still impressed with his bloodline. He labels him as a horse who “has the looks of a superstar in the making,” so he likes getting the 15-1 odds at this point in the spring with nearly two months to go before the Kentucky Derby 2026. See which other horses to back at SportsLine, and you can make Kentucky Derby futures bets TwinSpires here:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a massive double-digit longshot who could be the best of a “barnful of standouts.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 12 Derby-Oaks doubles.
