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    Financial Analysis

    Novartis Promises Growth Despite ‘Historic’ Patent Cliffs – I Broadly Agree (NYSE:NVS)

    adminBy adminMarch 23, 2026No Comments2 Mins Read
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    Novartis Promises Growth Despite ‘Historic’ Patent Cliffs – I Broadly Agree (NYSE:NVS)
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    Investment Overview – Novartis Latest M&A Deal Speaks to Pipeline Pressure

    A few days ago (March 20th), Swiss Pharmaceuticals giant Novartis (NVS) announced it would pay $2bn up front (the deal may rise to $3bn if milestones are met) to acquire Pikavation Therapeutics, a wholly owned subsidiary of Synnovation, a privately owned Biotech headquartered in Delaware.

    The clue is in the name – Pikavation is developing SNV4818, a pan-mutant‑selective PI3Kα inhibitor,

    “exploring a next-generation approach for the treatment of patients with HR+/HER2- breast cancer and potentially other solid tumor indications.”

    Drug candidates that target PI3Kα are highly prized – in January 2025, Eli Lilly (LLY), the world’s most valuable Pharma company, paid ~$1.5bn upfront and pledged another $1bn in milestone payments to Scorpion Therapeutics in exchange for its candidate STX-478, also an inhibitor of PI3Kα, also being developed for breast cancer and other solid tumors.

    In a press release, Shreeram Aradhye, M.D., President of Development at Novartis, remarked that:

    While mutated PI3Kα is a well‑established driver in HR+/HER2‑ breast cancer, there remains a challenge in achieving effective pathway inhibition with a tolerable therapeutic profile.

    SNV4818 applies new mutant‑selective chemistry to more precisely target tumor biology while sparing normal cells. This approach has the potential to translate proven biology into improved tolerability and more durable benefit for patients through precision medicine.

    Novartis clearly believes it has acquired a potential “best-in-class” candidate; however, the deal does not seem to have gone down so well on Wall Street – Novartis stock is down nearly 10% on a one-week basis. Share price is presently $147.5, and market cap valuation $279bn.

    The pharma already markets and sells a PI3Kα-targeting drug, Piqray, approved in 2019 to treat breast cancer, which earned $382m of revenues last year – down ~15% year-on-year, but its new, next-generation asset will now compete against Lilly’s asset, as well as similar drugs

    agree Broadly Cliffs growth historic Novartis NYSENVS Patent promises
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