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The U.S. intelligence community doesn’t expect China to invade Taiwan in 2027. Do you agree?
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Good morning! Here’s the latest in trending:
Truce or escalation: Trump sets deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and floats seizing Iranian oil. A 45-day ceasefire is on the table.
War windfall: EU members call for windfall tax on energy firms’ profits fueled by the Iran war, while U.S. chemical makers see sudden boom.
Strategic backing: Paramount (PSKY) lines up ~$24B in funding from Gulf sovereign wealth funds for its Warner Bros. (WBD) deal.
As the world focuses on the Iran war, recent developments may be signaling possible Chinese military activity ahead along some parts of its coastline. China has issued alerts reserving swaths of offshore airspace for a period of 40 days without explanation, The Wall Street Journal reported.
What’s new: The alerts, known as Notice to Air Missions (or NOTAMs), are in effect from March 27 through May 6 and are intended to flag temporary airspace hazards or restrictions. China has not announced any military exercises in the area for now, but the NOTAMs are similar to alerts used to warn aviation authorities of Chinese military exercises. The reserved airspace is designated as “SFC-UNL” in the NOTAMs. This refers to the altitude restrictions – SFC means surface height or ground level and UNL is unlimited height. The airspace reserved in the alerts is hundreds of miles away from Taiwan, and includes offshore airspace extending from the Yellow Sea facing South Korea, south to waters of the East China Sea facing Japan.
Why it matters: “What makes this especially notable is the combination of SFC-UNL with an extraordinary 40-day duration — and no announced exercise,” Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight project at Stanford University that tracks Chinese maritime activity, told WSJ. “That suggests not a discrete exercise but a sustained operational readiness posture — and one that China apparently doesn’t feel the need to explain.” Beijing is likely seizing an opportunity to boost its active military presence while the U.S. is focused on the Middle East, a senior Taiwan security official said, adding that the current airspace reservation is “clearly aimed at Japan.” To note, U.S. intelligence does not expect China to invade Taiwan in 2027 and there is no fixed timeline for achieving unification.
Bigger picture: The development comes as Taiwan’s parliament is weighing a proposed $40B defense budget, which has stalled due to pushback from local opposition and Beijing. In this backdrop, Chinese President Xi Jinping invited the leader of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang, or KMT, for a visit to China this week. U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to Beijing in mid-May. “As of now I am not anticipating any major exercises or flare-ups” because of these upcoming visits, said Ben Lewis, whose research organization PLATracker tracks Chinese military activity. To note, a WSJ report last week highlighted China’s island-building efforts in the South China Sea, which could potentially turn Antelope Reef into a major military base.
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Court upholds decision to block subpoenas in Jay Powell probe.
Aging homes drive surge in repair costs, financial strain for owners.
Today’s Markets
In Asia, Japan +0.6%. Hong Kong closed. China closed. India +1.1%.
In Europe, at midday, London closed. Paris closed. Frankfurt closed.
Futures at 6:30, Dow flat. S&P +0.2%. Nasdaq +0.5%. Crude -0.9% to $110.50. Gold +0.7% to $4,713.90. Bitcoin +4.1% to $69,860.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 4.35%.
On The Calendar
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