Jannik Sinner’s defeat to Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the second round of the French Open sent shockwaves across the world of tennis,
World No 1 Sinner was the biggest favourite going into a Grand Slam in the men’s singles draw since Rafael Nadal at the 2009 French Open. Coincidentally, Nadal also failed to win at Roland-Garros that year.
Sinner’s elimination means the men’s draw has now been blown wide open, so who are the favourites to be champion next Sunday? A first-time major winner, or perhaps history for a certain Serb?
Alexander Zverev
Ranking: 3, Age: 29
Alexander Zverev has been the nearly man when it comes to Grand Slams for the last six years with three career major final appearances. He should have won the first of those – the 2020 US Open – as he was two sets up and served for the championship too, only to lose to Dominic Thiem.
The German has bounced back from a severe right-ankle injury when he rolled it and tore three lateral ligaments in the 2022 French Open semi-finals.
But his return to form has coincided with the rise of Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz over the last three years. With Alcaraz injured and Sinner out, Zverev is now favourite as his big serve and consistent hard groundstrokes have matched up well on the clay throughout his career.
Four of Zverev’s seven Masters 1000 titles have come on the clay but the big question is can he handle the pressure of his new favourite status for the remainder of the tournament?
Alexander Zverev is the bookmakers’ favourite after Sinner lost in the second round
Novak Djokovic
Ranking: 4, Age: 39
Novak Djokovic has been stuck on 24 Grand Slam titles since September 2023 and one more major would see him surpass Margaret Court for the most victories by a man or woman of all-time.
Djokovic’s full focus is on the Grand Slams as he approaches the end of his outstanding career, having only played four matches outside of the majors this season.
In fact, he only played one match on clay coming into the French Open and that was a surprise defeat to Dino Prizmic at the Italian Open two weeks ago.
As he so often has, Djokovic can play his way into a two-week Grand Slam, though, as he showed at the Australian Open earlier this year when he reached the final – beating Sinner in an epic semi-final encounter.
Under pressure, he is still arguably the best player on the tour, but, at 39 years old, it is his physicality which is the big question mark. Another issue is Zverev, among others who we will get on to, stands in Djokovic’s way before even getting to this year’s French Open final.
Novak Djokovic is the only Grand Slam champion left in the men’s singles draw
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Ranking: 6, Age: 25
Felix Auger-Aliassime is yet to fulfil the great potential he appeared to have earlier in his career but he is one of only a few standout names in the top half, so can he reach his first Grand Slam final?
Auger-Aliassime prefers the hard surface but generally never makes his life easy coming through the earlier rounds and so does not have enough left for the latter stages of tournaments.
The Canadian has proved that once again this week with a gutsy fifth-set tie-break win over Daniel Altmaier in the first round, then he dropped another set in the second round.
He must sense a big opportunity, though, to go far as his side of the draw has opened up without Sinner, but Auger-Aliassime must get a couple of easier wins under his belt.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has made two Grand Slam semi-final appearances but both came at the US Open
Alex de Minaur
Ranking: 7, Age: 27
Alex de Minaur has made seven Grand Slam quarter-final appearances, but lost them all. Clay is not his best surface and he was struggling until the week before the French Open when he went to Hamburg for an ATP 250 event and made the semi-finals.
De Minaur enjoyed a walkover in the second round but next plays Jakub Mensik who collapsed to the floor after winning his brutal last-64 match in a fifth-set tie-break.
It means De Minaur could have a relatively comfortable match and enter the second week reasonably fresh, which may make a big difference.
The Australian is in that tough bottom half but his possible physical advantage, for a player who is consistently strong, cannot be ignored.
Alex de Minaur is yet to reach the semi-finals of a Grand Slam
Flavio Cobolli
Ranking: 14, Age: 24
Also in Auger-Aliassime’s section of the draw is Flavio Cobolli and they could meet in the quarter-finals. Cobolli possesses great ball-striking ability and is a natural at the baseline which works well on the clay.
The 24-year-old led Italy to the defence of their Davis Cup title last November, winning each of his matches, so he can handle the pressure.
Cobolli is yet to drop a set at this year’s French Open and faces young American star Learner Tien in the next round. If he also wins that match in straight sets, it is fair to say he has timed his form perfectly and he has looked pretty unstressed in the heat of Paris too this week.
Flavio Cobolli made the quarter-finals at Wimbledon last year
Casper Ruud
Ranking: 16, Age: 27
Casper Ruud is set to meet Djokovic in the fourth round this Sunday if both come through their tricky third-round ties. Ruud faces USA’s Tommy Paul, while Djokovic goes up against talented Brazilian Joao Fonseca.
Ruud is a clay-court specialist, having reached the 2022 and 2023 French Open finals, and his topspin creates all sorts of problems for anyone he plays.
The Norwegian had a quiet 2025 but was runner-up to Sinner at the Italian Open earlier this month and made the semi-finals in Geneva a week later to ensure he was match ready for Roland-Garros.
He was nearly beaten by Roman Safiullin in the first round on Monday but dug extremely deep to come through in five sets. With a potential clash with Djokovic in the last 16, even if Ruud beats the Serb, the rest of his draw is not easy and the physical exertions he went through in the first round could come back to bite him later on.
Casper Ruud has been runner-up twice at the French Open
Frances Tiafoe
Ranking: 22, Age: 28
Frances Tiafoe came through a gruelling five-set match in the second round against Hubert Hurkacz but, with his big serve, he can always be a threat.
Tiafoe made the quarter-finals of the French Open for the first time 12 months ago but clay is arguably his weakest surface.
He is in the more open top half, though, and would not have to play a seeded player until the last eight at the earliest.
Frances Tiafoe’s big serving and big forehand could cause problems for his opponents
Rafael Jodar
Ranking: 29, Age: 19
No Alcaraz, no problem? Spanish tennis fans are getting very excited about teenager Rafael Jodar who has skyrocketed up the rankings this year.
Jodar was outside the top 100 in March but is up to 29th in the world and playing tennis that could take him very deep into this French Open.
The 19-year-old won a Challenger Tour event in April on the clay but his big breakthrough came at the Barcelona Open where he made the semi-finals, then followed it up with runs to the quarter-finals in Madrid and Rome.
His powerful groundstrokes and natural ability to move across the clay has worked wonders but he is also in the stacked bottom half of the draw which features Zverev, Djokovic and Ruud.
Rafael Jodar is making his French Open debut
Who else?
Aside from Djokovic, there are no other Grand Slam champions in the draw so it might not be one of the previous eight names mentioned.
Andrey Rublev is in the top half and could cause problems if he can keep his head, and his compatriot Karen Khachanov is another name to look out for in the bottom half – Zverev will likely need to beat him in the fourth round.
World No 62 Raphael Collignon has never been past the third round of a major but upset American No 1 Ben Shelton in straight sets in the second round with some incredible tennis.
Moise Kouame, 17, has got French fans excited after he became the youngest player to reach the third round of a Grand Slam since Nadal in 2003. The teenager is on course to meet Auger-Aliassime in the fourth round.
And what about Sinner’s conqueror Cerundolo? Although the Argentine capitalised on Sinner’s physical issues, he will need to play much better and it would be just as shocking if he made a deep run in this tournament.
Sinner might be out, but there is a huge opportunity for someone to achieve their tennis dream…
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