England’s World Cup chances assessed as they are rated third favourites behind Spain and France – Between the Lines | Football News

The World Cup is finally upon us. Could it be England’s year?

Opta’s supercomputer, which is based on 10,000 simulations and factors a wide range of data points, has Thomas Tuchel’s side as third favourites, with a 10.9 per cent chance of lifting the trophy.

European champions Spain are rated as favourites, with a 15.9 per cent chance of success, while France are second on 13.2 per cent. Holders Argentina, Portugal, Brazil and Germany complete the top seven. Scotland, meanwhile, are given only a 0.3 per cent chance, although they are at least predicted to reach the round of 32.

So, is England’s 10.9 per cent chance of winning the tournament for the first time since 1966 a fair calculation? And how do their chances really compare to Spain’s and France’s?

Who has the toughest route?

One factor to consider is each side’s possible route to the final.

If the tournament plays out according to the Opta supercomputer’s predictions, England will top Group L, ahead of Croatia, Ghana and Panama, then come up against Senegal in the round of 32, before facing co-hosts Mexico in the round of 16.

So far, so good. After that, though, it becomes a lot more difficult for Tuchel’s men, with five-time winners Brazil in the quarter-finals, holders Argentina in the semis, then Spain in the final, with Opta predicting defeat against the tournament favourites.

How does that route compare to those of the other favourites?

On the other side of the draw, Spain are predicted to finish top of Group H, which contains Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cabo Verde, then face Austria in the round of 32, Netherlands in the round of 16, Belgium in the quarters and France in the semis before the final against England, which they are predicted to win.

Second-favourites France, meanwhile, are predicted to top a tricky-looking Group I ahead of Norway, Senegal and Iraq. Opta’s supercomputer says they will then face Sweden, Colombia and Germany before defeat to Spain in the last four.

Of those three knockout routes, England’s ranks as the toughest. Their opponents have an average FIFA ranking of eight, compared to Spain’s having an average of 8.8 and France’s 15.8.

Who has the most quality?

One thing the three favourites have in common is a high level of strength in depth. They also benefit from a high concentration of players playing in the most competitive leagues.

England actually come out on top in terms of the average Opta Power Rankings of their players’ clubs, ahead of France in second. Favourites Spain rank behind Germany in fourth.

England’s presence at the top of the list is explained by the fact that 20 of their 26 players play in the Premier League, which Opta rates as the strongest league in the world.

Transfer value is another big indicator of player quality, and it’s France who come out on top in that regard. According to Transfermarkt, their squad is worth a whopping £1.33bn.

England’s squad is the next-most valuable at the tournament, at £1.14bn, while Spain’s is the third-most valuable, at £1.1bn. There is then a big gap to Portugal, whose squad is the fourth-most valuable, according to Transfermarkt, at £889m.

France have three of the most valuable players at the tournament in forwards Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise and Desire Doue. Spain’s most valuable asset is Lamine Yamal, although Pedri also features in the top 10. England’s only player in the top 10 is Jude Bellingham.

England and France have star players in form in Harry Kane, who scored 61 goals for Bayern Munich last season, and his club team-mate Olise, who continued his outstanding domestic form with a hat-trick in his country’s warm-up win over Northern Ireland. Spain’s main man Yamal, meanwhile, hasn’t played since April due to injury.

Luis de la Fuente will be banking on him returning to top form but the uncertainty around his condition is a potential issue.

The age sweet spot?

England, Spain and France have all selected relatively youthful squads.

Spain’s average age of 26.2 makes them one of the youngest squads at the tournament, while England and France aren’t far behind at 26.6. Brazil and Argentina, by contrast, have selected significantly older squads at 28.8 and 28.7 respectively.

England, Spain and France will hope their youthful energy helps them deal with the hot and humid conditions at the tournament. Meanwhile, history shows that World Cup-winning teams are typically on the younger side.

As shown in the graphic below, all but four of the competition’s 14 winners since the 1970 World Cup have had starting line-ups with average ages of under 28.

Of course, experience is also important. Have Spain tipped the balance too far towards youth? Only two sides, France at 2018 and Argentina in 1978, have won the World Cup with a starting line-up average age lower than 26.2 since 1970.

Travel disadvantage for England?

Spare a thought for Curacao.

The smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup are already up against it in a group containing Germany, Ecuador and Ivory Coast, but they also have to travel a whopping 10,123km for their games.

England also have to deal with extensive travel during the group stage with games in Boston, New York and Dallas, all far from their Kansas City base, meaning they will clock a total distance of 8,948km, which ranks as the fourth-highest of all competing nations at the tournament.

France, by contrast, will benefit from relatively little travel, covering just 1,518km with their games all taking place on the east coast of the US in New York, Philadelphia and Boston, something which could aid recovery and boost freshness relative to England.

Spain also get off lightly compared to England, with the European champions set to travel a middling 5,464km during the group stage.

Could conditions suit South American sides?

While Opta rates Spain, France and England as its tournament favourites, it is worth noting that European nations do not historically fare well in tournaments staged in the Americas.

In fact, of the eight World Cups to be held in the Americas, the only European champions are Germany, who triumphed in Brazil in 2014.

The other seven tournaments were won by South American teams, partly because they are better acclimatised to the conditions. So could that factor give Brazil or Argentina an edge? Or could a side like England follow Germany’s example and defy history?

Verdict: Tough task for England

England undoubtedly have one of the best squads at the tournament but they will have to overcome numerous obstacles if they are to go the distance, including a potentially difficult route through the knockouts, a gruelling travel schedule, and a fight against unfamiliar weather conditions.