Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.
The highlights this week: Somalia’s political deadlock worsens after clashes broke out last week, U.S. policies block Africans from entering the country as the World Cup gets underway, and South Africa’s president walks a delicate tightrope on immigration in the wake of deadly protests.
Fighting between Somali federal troops and opposition-allied militias broke out in Somalia’s capital of Mogadishu on June 3, as the country’s political crisis spirals, threatening the future of its electoral system.
Tensions have flared in recent months over delays to Somalia’s elections, originally scheduled for earlier this year, and the highly contested one-year extension to President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term, which was slated to end on May 15.
Last week’s clashes, which killed one person and injured 55 others, occurred ahead of planned protests for June 4 against the term extension. The demonstrations did not end up taking place.
The Somali government said it restored order through mediation involving clan elders. (Somali society is broadly divided into five patrilineal clans, where elders play a role in conflict resolution and governance.)
Yet official talks between the government and opposition, led by the United States and United Kingdom, have not resumed since they collapsed on May 15. On Sunday, former President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, widely known as Farmaajo, said he would lead a dialogue to try to resolve the political deadlock.
The disagreement has centered on Mohamud’s goal of shifting the country to a one-person, one-vote electoral system. Somalia has not held a direct national vote since a 1969 coup by autocratic leader Mohamed Siad Barre, which was followed by decades of military rule and civil war. After the fall of Barre’s military government in 1991, the country had no effective central government. Since a central state was reestablished in 2012, leaders have been elected through indirect clan-based power-sharing.
In March, Somalia’s parliament passed constitutional amendments to replace the old system—whereby clan elders choose the parliament, which then selects a president—and move to a direct vote. These also extended the mandates of both the president and parliament from four to five years, pushing back elections by a year.
Critics of the clan-based system, including Mohamud, argue that it is corrupt and undemocratic. “This system is too dirty and keeps people out,” one lawmaker, Mohamed Ibrahim Moalimuu, told Al Jazeera last week. “It needs to be changed.” Moalimuu added that parliamentary seats could be bought for anywhere from $100,000 to $1.3 million.
Opposition leaders, however, reject the move as illegal and demand the reinstatement of the old system. Mohamud’s critics, who have set up a coalition called the Somali Future Council, argue that direct voting is a pretext to entrench the president’s power. They also say it is unworkable due to militant group al-Shabab’s control over parts of the country, even though direct municipal elections have already been held in Mogadishu and South West State.
Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, both of whom are fierce critics of the constitutional changes, said government forces targeted their homes during the clashes.
“Mohamud has directed a sustained and indiscriminate military assault with the apparent objective of killing me, former President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, dozens of respected traditional elders, and other political leaders in Mogadishu,” Khaire claimed on X last week.
“This attack is part of the actions of … Mohamud who wants to shed more blood without having a formal term of office, and his time has expired,” wrote Ahmed, who later accused the government of cutting his electricity and water supply following the fighting.
While the Somali government has not directly addressed the claims, it blamed the violence on “opposition group militias.” It also accused both Khaire and Ahmed of leading a coup attempt, without providing evidence.
Similar violence occurred when Farmaajo extended his term by more than a year in 2021. Like Mohamud, Farmaajo argued that it was necessary to change Somalia’s electoral system, which he was ultimately not successful in doing.
“At the core of the disagreement is a conflict between my government’s goal of universal suffrage through direct elections and those who insist on an indirect election model that empowers elites and denies ordinary citizens a vote,” he wrote in Foreign Policy in 2021.
Aside from recent internal clashes, Somalia has long shown signs of a fracturing state. The breakaway region of Somaliland declared its independence in 1991 and has since held separate elections and issued its own passports. In recent years, two states—Puntland and Jubaland—have started to operate independently from Mogadishu, after declaring they no longer recognize the federal government.
Political disputes also distract from counterinsurgency efforts against al-Shabab, security experts warn. And they draw attention—and resources—away from a looming famine, as more than 6 million Somalis face crisis levels of hunger amid severe drought and devastating foreign aid cuts.
Thursday, June 11: South Africa plays Mexico in the opening match of the FIFA World Cup.
Thursday, June 11, to Friday, June 12: The African Peace and Security Annual Conference is held in Rabat, Morocco.
The Africa Development Impact Forum is held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Monday, June 15: Egypt vs. Belgium and Cape Verde vs. Spain at the World Cup.
Tuesday, June 16: Senegal vs. France at the World Cup.
World Cup exclusion. Omar Artan, who was set to become the first Somali to referee a game at the FIFA World Cup, was denied entry to the United States after an 11-hour interrogation on Saturday. U.S. border officials said Artan was deemed inadmissible due to unspecified “vetting concerns.”
Somalia is among the 75 nations, largely in Africa and Latin America, impacted by travel bans or restrictions introduced by the Trump administration as part of its broader crackdown on immigration. For the duration of the World Cup, the United States has waived a visa bond requirement of up to $15,000 for five qualifying African nations—Algeria, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Tunisia—but many African fans from these countries say they have still faced visa delays or rejections.
The bond waiver only applied to supporters who purchased official tickets and registered with the digital FIFA Pass system by April 15. Some fans from other African nations are also being held up by multiple overlapping U.S. immigration policies, including travel bans.
The teams have been affected as well. Although all members of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s soccer team play for foreign clubs and are based outside of Congo, the White House World Cup Task Force mandated that the whole squad isolate for 21 days before entering the United States due to the Ebola outbreak.
Congolese fans are barred from entry, and Congo has requested that FIFA refund tickets. Fans from other nations, such as Ghana, have complained of high visa rejection rates and fees.
South Africa’s xenophobia. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is walking a delicate tightrope on immigration as deadly protests against Black African migrants have prompted several nations to organize charter flights to evacuate their citizens.
Some South African groups have blamed African migrants for the country’s high unemployment and crime rates, though researchers and others have pushed back against this narrative. In a televised address on Sunday, Ramaphosa promised to act on “real” concerns over illegal immigration but warned against vigilantism.
Ghana, Malawi, and Zimbabwe have already repatriated citizens. Last week, Mozambique said that five of its citizens were killed in xenophobic attacks in South Africa’s Mossel Bay.
Failed impeachment. Last month, Madagascar’s constitutional court rejected an opposition lawmaker’s attempt to impeach the country’s military leader, President Michael Randrianirina, who seized power in a coup last October.
The parliamentarian, Antoine Rajerison, accused Randrianirina of treason for “serious and repeated violations of the constitution,” but the court ruled that the case did not meet the legal requirements for removing a head of state.
Earlier this year, the junta-led government announced a transition road map, which includes a constitutional referendum and 2027 presidential elections. But many Malagasy remain concerned about the fate of democracy in the country, as activists have been arrested and subjected to harassment, according to local and international rights groups.
Despite the political turmoil, the military leader met with Nigerian President Bola Tinubu on Monday in Abuja to discuss trade.
Nigeria’s insurgent recruits. Abuja has recruited former Boko Haram fighters to aid Nigerian troops in the war against jihadis, ignoring the need for justice and accountability for the families whose relatives were abducted, executed, or raped by combatants, Ahmad Salkida writes in HumAngle.
“Many affected communities perceive former insurgents as receiving privileges unavailable to victims. Some surrendered members received food support, accommodation, vocational training, phones, stipends, or reintegration assistance,” Salkida writes. “Meanwhile, many survivors still live with displacement, trauma, hunger, unemployment, grief, and insecurity.”
Russia’s African recruits. An Interpol investigation has found that Moscow held recruitment drives at the University of Botswana and other campuses to dupe African students into helping its war effort in Ukraine, Keletso Thobega reports in the Continent. Students were told they could earn up to $2,000 a month in hospitality jobs but were ultimately sent to drone factories or military training.
“The recruitment people got uncomfortable when someone asked too many questions,” one student told the Continent, adding it all sounded “too good to be true.” Ukraine has estimated that more than 3,000 people from 36 African nations are fighting for Russia.
