It might be my last NHL preview of the season Thursday night as the Vegas Golden Knights visit the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final with it tied 2-2 and a puck drop of 8 ET. Needless to say, tonight’s winner could hoist the Cup in Game 6 on Sunday when I’m off. I’m hoping for a Game 7 back in Raleigh next Wednesday and would be all over that.
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Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes same-game parlay
- Vegas alt +2.5
- Carolina alt Over 2.5 goals scored
FanDuel SGP price: +115
Frankly, this series deserves to go seven games with how fantastic it has been, and Carolina’s 5-3 road win in Game 4 on Tuesday was more of the same. I will admit that the Hurricanes’ empty-net goal ruined my +175 parlay of Golden Knights +1.5 and Canes Over 2.5 team goals. An empty-netter is always a risk betting +1.5 in the NHL, but especially in the playoffs.
The Knights had rallied from a 3-1 hole in the second to tie it entering the third, but Jordan Staal’s seventh goal of these playoffs proved the winner at 6:32 of the third, and then Nikolaj Ehlers put a stake in my heart with the EN score at 19:05. We were so close to a fourth straight one-goal game, and now all four in the Final have seen at least seven total goals scored.
It’s the first Stanley Cup Final in history where four games featured a team rallying from a multi-goal deficit to at least tie the game. In addition, it’s the third Final in the expansion era (since 1967-68) to see each of the first four games tied at any point in the third period, and first since Blackhawks-Lightning in 2015 (I remember that so well) had the first five as such.
Finally, the 33 goals scored are tied for the second-highest total through the first four games of a Final – needless to say, all four have landed Over the total. We finally have 6.5’s on the totals board for Game 5, whereas only 5.5’s and a few 6’s in the first four games.
Despite the series being tied, and after he was held to one assist in Game 4, Vegas forward Mitchell Marner remains the Conn Smythe Trophy favorite at -105 as he continues to lead the postseason by far in scoring with 29 points. But three Carolina forwards all got huge boosts on that futures prop in Taylor Hall (now +380), Logan Stankoven (also +380) and Staal (+550).
Staal was the No. 1 star of Game 4 with two goals, and at age 37 years and 272 days on Tuesday he became the third-oldest player to record a multi-goal game in the Stanley Cup Final. He has five goals in the series, third-most by any active player in a single Final, and is the third player in the past 40 years to record a four-game goal streak at any point in a Final. To find the net tonight, the team captain is +370.
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The big story of Game 4 was Carolina coach Rod Brind’Amour opting to bench goalie Frederik Andersen after he had started each game of these playoffs and giving rookie Brandon Bussi his first career playoff start. It wasn’t a surprise that happened, and Bussi was terrific in relief of the struggling Andersen in Game 3 and surely will remain as the starter tonight after stopping 18 of 21 shots – including all nine in the third. Not bad for an undrafted rookie claimed on waivers last October.
What was shocking was that Andersen wasn’t even active, instead a healthy scratch with Pyotr Kochetkov as the backup. Bussi presented a bit of a different challenge for the Vegas shooters, as he catches with his right hand and Andersen with his left.
Brind’Amour said afterward he was non-committal about whether Andersen returns as the starter following four days off to reset, but it would shock me if he sits the rookie. Bussi had been off the board for Conn Smythe but is now +15000.
I still don’t see Vegas coach John Tortorella benching Carter Hart even if he has been beaten 16 times on 115 shots, resulting in a 3.60 goals-against average and .861 save percentage in the series. But he could be on a short leash. Hart is the first netminder in NHL history to give up at least four goals in each of the first four games of a Stanley Cup Final, but Carolina’s team total is 3.5 for Game 5.
The Final will require six or more games for the third straight year and sixth time in the past eight. Carolina has stolen back home-ice advantage and is -145 on the series line with Vegas at +120. That it ends in six is -110 and seven -120. I like seven.
Vegas has outscored Carolina 9-1 in second periods in these four games, but the Golden Knights have been outscored 16-7 in first, third and overtime periods combined. Tuesday was the third straight game in which the Knights have allowed at least three goals in one period to the Canes.
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I see no reason why Carolina wouldn’t score at least three goals tonight against the struggling Hart, but I also see no reason why the Knights would lose by at least three goals, either. I was too chicken to play Vegas +1.5 (despite the much better parlay price) because of the empty-net nonsense last time. Check out more expert picks in the daily SportsLine newsletter.
