The odds are clearly against Argentina.
Italy managed to retain the World Cup title in 1938 after winning four years earlier, and Brazil did the same in 1962 — but both times, the second win came in their home continent.
No team have ever retained the trophy in a tournament played so far away from home. Argentina, then, are taking on history as they strive to be champions once again. And yet, they clearly travel to the USA as one of the favorites — not least because things have gone so well for them since that dramatic win over France at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Like that great Spain side of around 16 years ago, they have put together a magnificent run of three consecutive trophies: the Copa Americas of 2021 and 2024, either side of the 2022 World Cup. Before this glorious run, their previous title had been the Copa America all the way back in 1993.
Winning has become a habit, which the current generation have enthusiastically acquired. And they were both consistent and eye-catching all the way through South America’s marathon World Cup qualification campaign.
Qualifying looks easy, because so many teams make the cut. But the campaign offers no respite — there is hardly an easy game along the way, and Argentina still finished comfortably top of the table, a full nine points ahead of their nearest rivals.
So, is this Argentina team built to defy the odds and win back-to-back World Cup titles?
How an aging Messi still keeps Argentina in World Cup-winning position
Working in Argentina’s favor is that they have worked out ways of reducing their dependence on Lionel Messi, who will turn 39 during the course of this World Cup.
True, he was the team’s top scorer in the qualification campaign. But La Albiceleste put in some very impressive performances in games that he missed — the 3-0 win away to Bolivia, 3-0 win at home to Chile, 1-0 win away to Uruguay and, most impressively of all, the 4-1 thrashing of Brazil that may even stand as the team’s finest display of the almost eight years in which coach Lionel Scaloni has been in charge.
When they beat Colombia in the 2024 Copa America final, Argentina’s performance arguably improved after Messi left the field injured, and it has been no problem leaving him on the bench for the occasional match.
Of course Messi is important — how could he not be? But he no longer has to carry the attack all the time.
Julián Álvarez — a reserve at the start of the Qatar campaign four years ago — has blossomed into the team’s most potent weapon, with lung power, talent and versatility. Alvarez can play alongside Messi as the center forward, or drop a little deeper and operate in the Messi role. Alvarez’s partnership with attacking midfielder Thiago Almada looks highly promising, too.
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Scaloni: Messi will get minutes in Argentina World Cup friendly
In the locker room, Messi’s mere presence may be an important factor for Argentina, too. Current players cite Messi as a source of motivation as the captain continues to defy the odds heading into his sixth World Cup.
“Anyone who knows Leo knows that wherever he is, winning is the goal,” Rodrigo De Paul told ESPN. “He competes — he always wants to win and be a key player with his clubs and his national team.”
As former Argentina national team player Oscar Ruggeri sees it, all-time greats like Messi can push the rest of the players to another level. Ruggeri — who formed part of the team that lifted the 1986 World Cup and went on to reach the 1990 final before ultimately losing 1-0 to West Germany — sees in Messi what his team had in another Argentine great, Maradona.
“The team today has a captain [Messi] that is very similar to the one we had back in ’90 [Maradona], and I believe he will lead them down the right path,” he said.
Why history and injuries could halt Argentina’s in this World Cup
By all outward appearances, this Argentina side believe they can win again.
“I feel that when the moment of truth arrives, this team becomes extremely competitive. I believe that is our greatest asset,” Argentina defender Nicolás Tagliafico told ESPN’s “Fuera de Juego” last month.
But the reality is that statistics are not on Argentina’s side. Since 1930, five national teams have reached consecutive World Cup finals including Netherlands, Argentina, France, Italy and Brazil. But only 9.09% of World Cup editions have resulted in a team successfully defending their title.
Former Argentina national team player and 1978 World Cup champion Mario Kempes emphasized the difficulty of beating the odds, even after trying to do so himself in 1982. After winning the tournament in 1978, Kempes and Argentina failed to reach the knockout stage in the following edition of the World Cup.
“I experienced this first-hand after the 1978 [World Cup] at the 1982 [World Cup] — we realized then that it is by no means an easy feat,” Kempes told ESPN last week. “Teams are getting to know you better now, they know how you play. They have to change because Argentina is a national team that everyone wants to beat.”
Kempes explained that part of the difficulty in winning consecutive tournaments comes from maintaining peak fitness over the course of four years — especially as players, four years older, accumulate minutes with congested schedules.
“The physical aspect [of this roster] isn’t quite the same anymore either, because three and a half years have passed,” he said. “The players have had a lot more playing time, minutes, in their legs. There have been many injuries, and there are many players arriving who aren’t in peak physical condition, due to fatigue.
“Also, there are some players that experienced a decline, they haven’t quite lived up to the level they reached three and a half years ago just from a football standpoint. Some players aren’t currently at their absolute best. That is something that Scaloni has said, it’s not just me saying that.”
Now, Argentina have entered their World Cup camp with several players facing injury concerns, raising questions about who will be ready for La Albiceleste‘s opening match on June 16 against Algeria.
Messi joined the Argentina camp after experiencing muscle fatigue that forced him to leave Inter Miami’s latest match in the 73rd minute, and attacking midfielder Nico Paz continues to train separately from the group while undergoing treatment for a left knee injury. Messi started in Argentina’s final friendly before the World Cup while Paz was a late sub.
But the big injury worries may be on the defensive side.
After all, Argentina’s title bid in Qatar was continually threatened by the tendency of the back line to crumble under pressure. It happened against Australia; it happened against Netherlands; and it came very close to costing them the World Cup when it happened in the final against France.
Since Qatar, Scaloni has had a look at a number of young defenders, but none have convinced. Instead, La Albiceleste are set to take the exact same defensive unit from 2022 to this World Cup — with extra injury worries.
Goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez broke a finger in the warm up before Aston Villa’s Europe League triumph, while center back Cristian Romero was ruled out of Tottenham’s battle against relegation with a knee injury. Both players should be ready in time, but Martínez did not feature in Argentina’s send-off and Romero played just one half.
The pair were once the missing pieces of the jigsaw, coming into the side just before the 2021 Copa America and significantly improving the defense. If the back line already looks a little suspect with Martinez and Romero, then Scaloni would be entitled to suffer sleepless nights pondering on how to get by without them.
On top of that, defenders Gonzalo Montiel and Nahuel Molina are also coming back minor injuries. Montiel played in Argentina’s send-off but Molina did not. And this expanded World Cup contains an extra knockout round — which can perhaps be seen as an extra possibility for a defensive collapse.
Can mindset propel Argentina in this World Cup?
Ruggeri isn’t too concerned about the impact of injuries or statistics on this current Albiceleste squad. The World Cup winner insists the hunger to win can carry this roster through its challenges.
“It’s not a matter of going against the statistics — Argentina already lived through the experience of reaching the final [after winning],” he said. “This squad has unique characteristics. We [in 1990] arrived in Italy with a lot of injuries. It’s similar to what this current squad is going through with the same number of injuries.
“We weren’t in great shape initially, but we gradually recovered as the World Cup progressed. Once you’ve already won, you’re left with that lingering taste of the experience you lived through, and of everything the fans made you feel. Looking at this squad, they know exactly what they are doing.”
And Tagliafico agrees. The left back stood there at Lusail Stadium in Qatar as Messi fell to his knees in tears when Argentina were declared champions of the world and says the happiness the team felt that day — with much of the 2022 squad returning — provides the necessary motivation to overcome any obstacles this year.
He cites Copa America as an example — after Argentina lifted the trophy in 2021 and went on to win the tournament for a second consecutive time in 2024.
“When this team has to compete, it does exactly that,” Tagliafico said. “… And that is what matters in the end, because if you get too caught up analyzing data and statistics, you risk trapping yourself in a mindset that doesn’t reflect reality.
“It’s especially true when you’re part of a national team that has had the opportunity to play in final after final and has repeatedly gone on to achieve the trophy. That track record gives you the confidence to say: if we did it once, we can do it twice; if we did it twice, we can do it three times. So, we’re approaching this with the mindset that we’re going to work incredibly hard, bringing that same competitive spirit we always possess.”
It may be revealing, then, to see the emotional tone of Argentina when they open their tournament. In the past, they have not found it easy to put their title on the line. There was a tinge of tragedy around their campaigns of 1982 and 1990, where the fear of losing their status as world champions added an extra layer of dark drama.
The example of 1990 is especially pertinent. That fear turned into fuel that powered a limited side to battle all the way to the final, circling the wagons against everything and everyone along the way. Most neutrals were not impressed, but the side’s battling spirit was greatly admired back home.
Can they do it?
For Scaloni, it’s an unenviable task, managing an Argentina side who are viewed as favorites when much of the tangible evidence says that shouldn’t be the case.
Although Scaloni has been managing Messi’s twilight years well, he is still forced to try to replace the irreplaceable. How can he fill the gap left by the international retirement of winger Ángel Di María, one of the outstanding (and surely the most underrated) players of the 21st century?
Di Maria, now 38, was lavishly talented, unusually selfless, versatile and intelligent — and, so often, the go-to guy on the big occasion. (He continues to be all those things for Rosario Central, only heightening the frustration at his absence from the national team.) This was evident as far back as the 2008 Olympics, and was confirmed with match-winning displays in all three trophy winning finals.
Despite this squad facing injuries, aging and absences, the truth is this Argentina side can play some glorious football. When they hit their stride in their possession game — with close little passing triangles and clever switches of play — it can be a joy to behold. But the question marks around the defense add undeniable doubt over their dreams of hanging on to their title.
What happens over the next few weeks will decide how Argentina’s class of 2026 will be remembered as they prepare for the World Cup with history in their sights.
