A nation still divided 10 years on from the Brexit vote

Hello and welcome to the working week.

This Tuesday marks the 10th anniversary of the referendum vote that began Brexit, the process of the UK leaving the EU. The commemoration will spark a range of emotions among Brits in a country still divided by its choice and the consequences of the resulting split. It has been linked with the rise of populist politics globally and decline nationally. The question, assessed in a series of FT articles, is what next? You can join the debate with my colleagues this Thursday in a subscriber webinar, Ten years after Brexit: can the UK deliver change? Register here and send us your questions.

Westminster politics will continue to occupy itself this week with the question of who will be running the country in a few months. Freshly elected Makerfield MP Andy Burnham could well be on the march to claim the keys to 10 Downing Street. Read the FT analysis to see what Burnham needs to do to get them. As I write, the incumbent Sir Keir Starmer is clinging on. Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, has signalled that he is prepared to trigger a leadership contest as early as this week. Brace yourselves.

We are midway through the calendar year, closing in on what should be a summer lull, but there is still a steady stream of economic and corporate news.

Semiconductor group Cerebras Systems will report its first-quarter results on Tuesday, and its first financial update since bursting on to the New York market with its IPO in May. Investors and analysts will be watching for updates on revenue growth and customer demand amid continued momentum in the AI market.

British fund manager Liontrust is expected to report lower annual profit after continued client redemptions, driven by ongoing outflows from its UK retail-focused funds. Focus will be on net flows, client sentiment and the outlook for assets under management.

The headline news on the economic front will be the US first-quarter GDP update, giving a better sense of the Iran war’s impact on the nation’s growth machine. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve announces its annual bank stress test results. The central bankers are back on the speaking circuit after the recent interest rate meetings in the EU, US, Japan and the UK. More details on these and other items below.

One more thing . . . 

The Great British Summer Savings scheme, UK chancellor Rachel Reeves’ attempt to get the nation’s families out spending money in time for the start of the school holidays, begins on Thursday. The headline deal is a temporary VAT cut from 20 per cent to 5 per cent on children’s meals, theatre and cinema tickets and family attractions. But there is also plenty of free stuff to do in Britain’s great cities. I’m in Edinburgh this week on a short break and I’m tempted by this FT Globetrotter walk from the castle to Canongate oyster bar.

Any other good value holiday trip suggestions? Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde appears at the European parliament Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs

• Canada: May consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data

• China: interest rate announcement

• EU: June Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator (FCCI) data

• UK: Blue Book published

• Earnings calls: Couche-Tard Q4/FY, Fervo Energy Q1, Metcash FY

Tuesday

• Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem speaks at an event hosted by the France-Canada Chamber of Commerce in Paris

• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Alan Taylor speaks at the Barclays and Centre for Economic Policy Research monetary policy forum

• Eurozone, France, Germany, India, Japan, UK, US: S&P Global flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data

• UK: CBI Industrial Trends Survey

• US: May State Employment and Unemployment figures

• Earnings calls: Bunzl pre-close trading statement, Cerebras Q1, CMC Q3, FedEx Q4/FY, Gear4Music FY, KB Home Q2, Korn Ferry Q4/FY, Severfield FY, Sunbelt Rentals Q4/FY, Telecom Plus FY

Wednesday

• Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at Centre for Central Banking Studies conference in London

• FT Live Global Insurance Summit in London and online. Register here

• Australia: May CPI inflation rate data

• Canada: minutes from last Monetary Policy Committee meeting

• Germany: ifo Business Climate Index

• Japan: summary of opinions from last rate-setting meeting. Also, May services producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• Earnings calls: Berkeley Group FY, Daktronics Q4/FY, Jefferies Financial Q2, Liontrust Asset Management FY, Micron Technology Q3, MillerKnoll Q4/FY, Novagold Q2, PayChex Q4/FY, ProCook FY, Worthington Enterprises Q4/FY

Thursday

• Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura speaks at a meeting with local leaders in Hyōgo

• Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Austan Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs Global Economy Dialogue Series

• Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams speaks at Crane’s Money Fund Symposium in Jersey City, New Jersey

• FT Live presents a subscriber webinar on Ten Years after Brexit: can the UK deliver change? Register here and send your questions

• Australia: May labour force statistics

• EU: European Central Bank General Council meeting and Economic Report

• UK: ONS housing statistics and BRC Consumer Sentiment Monitor survey

• US: Q1 GDP third estimate

• Earnings calls: Acuity Brands Q3, BlackBerry Q1, Bosideng Q4/FY, Darden Restaurants Q4/FY, Halfords FY, H&M HY, McCormick Q2, Methode Electronics Q4/FY, Moonpig FY, Serco pre-close trading update, SunRice FY, Synnex Q2, Vitasoy International FY, Volex FY, Winnebago Industries Q3, Wise FY, Worthington Steel Q4/FY

Friday

• EU: ECB Consumer Expectations Survey

• India: Muharram. Financial markets closed

• UK: Financial Policy Committee meeting, attended by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey

• US: University of Michigan June Index of Consumer Sentiment

• Earnings calls: Apogee Enterprises Q1, China Gas Q4/FY, Geely Q1

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Belgium: EU-Moldova summit in Brussels. The eastern European nation has opened the first of several negotiating clusters, covering some of the 35 accession chapters that set out the legal changes needed to align its laws with EU standards. Moldova’s bid is “coupled” with that of Ukraine, which has also started membership talks after Hungary lifted its veto on negotiations

• China: Beijing hosts the fourth China International Supply Chain Expo, starting today and running until Friday. A high-level Chinese official is expected to deliver a speech at the opening ceremony

• UK: IMF first deputy managing director Dan Katz visits London for meetings with representatives from the City’s financial sector and the Bank of England. In Westminster, the Public Accounts Committee takes evidence on the government’s intervention in British Steel

Tuesday

• Belgium: Japanese Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako on state visit

• China: World Economic Forum’s 17th annual meeting of The New Champions, Dalian, known as Summer Davos, begins in Dalian, running until Thursday

• France: Men’s Fashion Week begins in Paris, running to Sunday

• Japan: Okinawa Memorial Day, a public holiday observed in Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture annually to remember the lives lost in the second world war during the Battle of Okinawa

• UK: 10th anniversary of the EU referendum, in which a majority voted 52 to 48 per cent to leave the bloc. In Edinburgh, former Scottish National Party chief executive Peter Murrell will be in court to be sentenced for embezzling £400,000 from the SNP’s funds

• US: congressional primary elections held in Maryland, New York and Utah

Wednesday

• UN International Day of Women in Diplomacy

• UK: Treasury Committee takes evidence from leading voices in the consumer finance industry as the financial services and markets bill is debated in the House of Lords

• US: Federal Reserve announces annual bank stress test results

Thursday

• Poland: 2026 Ukraine Recovery Conference begins its two-day gathering in Gdańsk, part of a series aimed at mobilising international support for the economic stabilisation in the country after the 2022 Russian invasion

• UK: Great British Summer Savings scheme begins. Also, the British Chambers of Commerce annual conference is in Westminster with shadow chancellor Mel Stride, Reform UK Treasury spokesperson Robert Jenrick, Green Party leader Zack Polanski and Lib Dem leader Ed Davey among the speakers

Friday

• UK: Main draw announced for the Wimbledon tennis tournament, which starts next Monday

• US: John Bolton, former national security adviser, expected to plead guilty to one count of retaining classified information under a plea deal with the Department of Justice

Saturday

Sunday