In May, Republican voters in Louisiana delivered President Trump one of his most resounding victories of the primary season, ousting Senator Bill Cassidy at his urging.
Now, they are again weighing whether to elevate his preferred candidate as they head to the polls on Saturday for a runoff election that is expected to determine Mr. Cassidy’s successor in the deep-red state.
Mr. Trump’s pick, Representative Julia Letlow, beat Mr. Cassidy by about 20 percentage points last month. But Ms. Letlow did not win the majority of the vote needed to avoid the runoff.
Ms. Letlow is seeking to fend off State Treasurer John Fleming, a former congressman and longtime Trump loyalist who has appealed to primary voters by arguing that he is the more conservative option.
Mr. Fleming trailed Ms. Letlow by about 17 percentage points in May, and some expected her to glide to victory in the runoff. But limited public opinion polling suggests that the runoff could be close.
Analysts say the race has moved on from simply being a referendum on Mr. Cassidy, who angered the president and his base by voting to convict Mr. Trump in his 2021 impeachment trial. It is unclear if voters who turned out last month to oust Mr. Cassidy will return Saturday, said Lionel Rainey III, a Republican strategist in Louisiana.
“A Letlow loss would be inexplicable,” Mr. Rainey said, “but it is somehow possible.”
The winner of the runoff will be an overwhelming general-election favorite in Louisiana.
Here’s what to watch on Saturday.
Will Trump score another endorsement victory?
Mr. Cassidy’s defeat last month was part of a string of spring successes for Mr. Trump, who also backed primary challengers who defeated Representative Thomas Massie in Kentucky and Senator John Cornyn in Texas.
But if the president’s endorsement has appeared to be a golden ticket in some Republican primaries, it has come up short in others. This month, Republican primary voters rejected his choices in governor’s races in Iowa and Georgia. And Mr. Trump shifted to what many saw as a face-saving dual endorsement in South Carolina.
In an interview, Mr. Fleming contended that the dynamic in the Louisiana race had “completely changed” in the runoff, adding that voters were now saying, “I’m going for the guy who’s more Trump-aligned, not the one with the endorsement.”
Will voters pick an establishment-backed newcomer or a familiar face running without the establishment?
Ms. Letlow, 45, a former educator from Monroe, La., has a unique political history. She had never run in a competitive race before this year.
She first won her seat in early 2021, emerging from a special election to take the seat of her husband, Luke Letlow, who won it the previous November but died of complications of Covid-19 shortly before he was scheduled to take office.
She entered the Senate race at Mr. Trump’s urging — “RUN JULIA RUN!!!” he wrote on social media in January — and he has backed her aggressively.
“This election matters,” Ms. Letlow said in a virtual rally with Mr. Trump on Thursday. “We have a chance to send a clear message that Louisiana stands with President Trump, that we are done with weak career politicians.”
She is also backed by the state’s powerful Republican governor, Jeff Landry; its Republican attorney general, Liz Murrill; and the No. 2 Republican in the U.S. House, Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana.
A loss by Ms. Letlow on Saturday would offer a “jolt” to Louisiana’s Republican power structure, said Robert Hogan, a political science professor at Louisiana State University. But extremely low turnout could create the conditions for an upset, he said.
Mr. Fleming, 74, a Subway franchisee and family physician, is leaning on considerable political experience and a reputation as a conservative fighter.
He served four terms in Congress, helping to found the Freedom Caucus, a group of hard-line Republicans. Later, he was the White House deputy chief of staff under Mr. Trump.
In the interview, Mr. Fleming described Ms. Letlow as “woke,” citing positive comments she made about diversity, equity and inclusion programs when she interviewed to be president of the University of Louisiana at Monroe in 2020. (She did not get the job, and later said D.E.I. was “hijacked by the radical left and turned into indoctrination.”)
He has also sought to activate voters by focusing on a distinctly regional issue, attacking carbon storage projects that have boomed in the state, and which have divided Republicans. He says they waste money and damage the environment. (Ms. Letlow says she only supports projects that have community support.)
How will Cassidy respond?
Since losing his primary, Mr. Cassidy, long known for his mild-mannered style, has seemed to take on a somewhat more pugnacious persona.
He got into a shouting match with Mr. Trump on Capitol Hill. And he has posted pointed social media missives criticizing the president over the fragile deal he reached with Iran.
Mr. Cassidy has not endorsed a candidate in the runoff. Some Louisiana Republicans may be keeping an eye on Mr. Cassidy’s social media feed on Saturday — particularly if the president’s chosen candidate falls.
