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AP Moller-Maersk, the world’s second-largest container shipping line, has said it expects its full-year earnings to be at least $1bn higher than previously forecast due to strong demand from the Far East driven by new US tariffs.
In a statement on Monday, Maersk said underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation would be in the range of $8bn to $10bn for 2026, up from its previous guidance of $4.5bn to $7bn.
Freight shipping charges have surged in the past week as US retailers and consumer goods companies seek to stockpile inventory from China ahead of a new round of American tariffs.
The Trump administration is planning to impose tariffs of at least 10 per cent on dozens of countries from late July following a probe into forced labour practices. Further US tariffs on industrial goods are due to be announced next month.
As a result, freight shipping rates have risen to their highest levels since the Red Sea crisis in the late summer of 2024, when Houthi rebels in Yemen started to target vessels that had passed through the Suez Canal.
The rebels, who were acting in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, forced most western shipping companies to take the far longer route between Asia and Europe via the Cape of Good Hope.
Clarksons, the shipbroker, said on Monday the Shanghai containerised freight index, a standard measure for the industry, was now “just 13 per cent shy of the summer 2024 peak”.
Capacity constraints driven by “multiple factors” had played a role in pushing up rates both for freight and for chartering a container ship over a set period, the broker said. Rates for time charters, as they are known, had hit “a new post-Covid high”, it added.
The US-Israeli war against Iran has caused widespread disruption to the shipping industry, with several hundred vessels stuck near the Strait of Hormuz after the Islamic republic blocked the strategic waterway.
Maersk said it was upgrading its guidance thanks to “continued strong demand in the container market, particularly in the Far East, and a recent sustained increase in spot market rates”.
Volume growth for the global container market would now be about 4 per cent in 2026 compared to between 2 and 4 per cent as previously forecast, it added.
Increases in fuel costs, due to take effect at the beginning of July and stemming from the Iran war, have also served to increase demand for container shipping in the second quarter, according to industry executives.
