The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have inflicted deep economic pain on many countries and sent some industries into a tailspin as they struggled with higher prices for energy, fertilizer and chemicals.
It may also have given China a competitive edge.
While the energy shocks and supply chain challenges stemming from the war have posed some challenges for China, the country has largely managed to avoid the kind of inflation spike and cascading economic and political effects that have afflicted many other nations.
The reason: China’s oil and gas reserves and clean energy supplies have allowed it to avoid the worst of the effects, according to an analysis published Monday by The Asia Group, a Washington-based consulting firm. That is reinforcing the country’s position as a competitive place for manufacturing.
The firm looked at the effects of disruptions in the strait and how it affected Asian economies and politics. One main takeaway is that the crisis has demonstrated Beijing’s ability to use prices, export controls, subsidies and a managed currency to absorb shocks in its economy.
The disruptions spurred by the United States have also helped Beijing to promote itself to other countries as the stable partner of choice, and accelerated global demand for clean energy technology like solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, industries that China dominates.
“It’s hard not to come to the conclusion that China is a winner here,” said Kurt Campbell, the chairman and co-founder of The Asia Group and a former deputy U.S. secretary of state in the Biden administration.
Disruptions to energy production and shipping stemming from the war in Iran have raised the cost of oil and gas globally over the past three months. Asia, the world’s biggest manufacturing hub, is particularly dependent on the Middle East for energy and industrial products. Asia sources 80 percent of its oil and 90 percent of its natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz.
But the impacts have gone far beyond the energy market. The war has also impeded the production and movement of certain critical products — like naphtha, used to make plastics and chemicals; helium, used in semiconductor factories and M.R.I. machines; and sulfur, which is needed to refine copper, nickel and critical minerals needed in electric vehicle batteries and electrical systems.
The Trump administration says it has reached a peace deal, and traffic had been picking up in the Strait of Hormuz. But over the last few days, Iran and the United States have traded new attacks and threats. Even if the cease-fire were to get back on track, many analysts expect the consequences of the war to linger. The threat of future closures or damage to ships that traverse the strait will push up insurance costs for shippers, and encourage companies to find longer and more expensive routes to avoid it.
In China, factories that make products like chemicals, metals and synthetic fibers are still heavily dependent on foreign sources of sulfur, helium and naphtha that come through the Strait of Hormuz.
But China has managed to avoid the brunt of many other impacts from higher global energy prices by drawing on its energy reserves and imposing export restrictions and quotas on its oil refineries. China’s oil imports were down by more than 30 percent annually in May, leaving a large supply of global oil for other countries to purchase.
Recent supply chain disruptions pose much more significant challenges for other Asian countries, according to the report, which used A.I. to model numerous scenarios for how governments, companies and other actors would respond to various outcomes in the strait.
In India, rising prices for fertilizer, fuel and food have stoked political opposition to the government. Higher fertilizer costs, combined with prospects for a weak monsoon season, could weigh on the more than 40 percent of India’s work force that are employed in agriculture.
In Japan, where fuel subsidies are already equivalent to about half the defense budget, higher energy prices could also increase fiscal pressures on the government. Rising prices and shortages of aluminum and naphtha, which are used to make auto parts, have led to production cuts and delays for Japanese carmakers.
The political and economic repercussions are even keener in Southeast Asia, where many countries are net energy importers, and governments have turned to emergency borrowing and extended subsidies to buffer their economies.
The Philippines has seen labor strikes and declared a national energy emergency. In Indonesia, nickel producers short of sulfuric acid have cut their output, while tourism in Bali has fallen because of higher airfares.
Amid the energy shock, many Southeast Asian countries are looking to China to provide solar panels, battery energy storage systems and electric vehicles, and China’s exports of those products have soared.
The energy crisis could also erode the perception of Southeast Asia’s manufacturing competitiveness, slowing a trend where companies have tried to move their factories out of China and set up facilities in other markets, the group’s analysts said.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had a much more limited impact on the United States, given its energy production. But it could have some negative consequences in sectors like A.I. The Hormuz crisis has stressed Asian supply chains that make semiconductors, transformers, energy systems, copper and other materials, which are used to build U.S. data centers, the report said.
The biggest question now is how long the crisis persists.
Mr. Campbell said the impact on many countries and supply chains had been “deep and profound,” and could worsen if the crisis continues. Japan, South Korea and others have worked through many of the reserves that have so far buffered them from the economic effects.
“In many capacities, from jet fuel to a lot of diesel oils, we are basically almost running on empty,” he said.
