Every July 4, tens of thousands of people flock to New York’s Coney Island to watch professionals compete to down the most Nathan’s Famous hot dogs as they celebrate US independence.
But as the country gears up for its 250th birthday, the cost of celebrating with hot dogs and just about every other favourite dish will be higher than ever as prices soar on the back of President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the war with Iran.
“Pretty much everything is coming up,” said Stephen Gaffney, a manager at Paul’s Daughter, which sells sausages to lobster rolls on Coney Island’s famous boardwalk. “Food costs are increasing on everything.”
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The cost of enjoying America’s semiquincentennial is not just a headache for hot-dog eaters on Coney Island. It is also a problem for Trump, who was elected in 2024 on a pledge to “make America affordable again” and is facing crucial midterm elections in November.
In the year to May, consumer price index inflation was 4.2 per cent, while producer prices rose a staggering 6.5 per cent — the highest level since November 2022.
An FT poll last month found 68 per cent of registered voters disapproved of the US president’s handling of inflation and the cost of living in June, up 10 points from April.
Forty per cent of voters also described their financial position as “just getting by”, or finding it “somewhat” or “very difficult”, while two-thirds blamed the president’s policies for an increase in grocery prices.
Adding to the cost of living pressures are petrol prices, which are still well in excess of what they were before Trump bombed Iran, triggering a global energy crisis. A gallon now costs $3.85, according to AAA Gas Prices, compared with just under $3 in late February.
“Despite what a candidate for president might tell you, prices don’t go down,” said Zach Williams, a customer at Nathan’s Famous, the 110-year-old institution on Coney Island. “Our small pay cheque is being eaten up kind of notch by notch.”
“America is not going back [to like it was] before. Not only America, everywhere is the same,” said Christos Silevistas, a Greek food stall owner in Coney Island. “The people make less money, but the bill is bigger.”
Consumer spending has held up in recent months, boosted in part by bumper tax refunds under the president’s 2025 budget bill.
But consumer confidence, a measure of economic optimism, plunged to an all-time low in May according to the University of Michigan. It ticked up slightly in June but remained at the second-lowest level since the 1970s.
Many people are tightening their belts on Coney Island, where the screams emanating from the rickety Cyclone rollercoaster were among the few signs of life on a Friday afternoon in late June.
Store owners and ride operators say high prices have been scaring off customers.
“This is Coney Island, usually foods are more expensive here, but it’s going up more, at a more surprising rate,” said Alex, a worker at a stall in the amusement park.
“I can see more customers complaining about how prices are more expensive,” he said. “They come, ask the price and then walk away.”
In a world in which many Americans believe they have fewer dollars to spend, sales of hot dogs may be a cheap and cheerful July 4 option compared with more expensive alternatives, such as burgers, steaks and lobster rolls. Discount retailer Costco has kept the price of its all-beef hot dog and soda combo at $1.50 despite a surge in wholesale beef prices.
“I only came here because I wanted to go to the most famous Nathan’s that there ever was,” said customer Andrew Flory, who added he had paid almost $5 for a basic hot dog. “Otherwise I’d be at Costco eating their hot dog.”
Nathan’s Famous has blamed higher beef prices for its expensive franks (frankfurters), saying they cost 19 per cent more to make than they did last year.
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Wholesale beef costs have surged 40 per cent since the pandemic, as ranchers are hit by drought and screwworms, just as tariffs and the Iran war push up raw material costs.
“We are unable to predict the future cost of our hot dogs and expect to experience price volatility for our beef products during fiscal 2027,” the company said in its latest annual report.
The uncertainty was a prime reason why meat processor Smithfield announced it would buy the brand for $450mn earlier this year — part of a meat industry trend towards consolidation in response to rising costs.
Coney Island’s vendors are hoping the annual July 4 hot dog eating competition and the positive vibes of the New York Knicks’ first NBA finals win for more than half a century will bring in crowds despite the higher prices.
“It’s 250 years — it’s going to be a big one,” said Deno Vourderis, a manager of Deno’s snack bar. “Fireworks, outdoor eating contest — it’s what people look forward to, it’s Coney Island.”
Data visualisation by Eva Xiao in New York
