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Portfolio Strategy Guidelines
This year’s twists and turns threw typical portfolio dynamics some curveballs. A change of guard in the Fed, volatile geopolitics, the heated AI trade, and long-awaited IPOs all posed challenges and opportunities that left readers hungry for portfolio-level guidance. Analysts stepped up to the plate, delivering more portfolio strategy pieces addressing this year’s market volatility, satisfying readers’ increased interest in managing downside risk and capturing momentum. We’d like to take this opportunity to share some guidance about portfolio strategy must-haves, as well as ways to make your portfolio strategy stand out.
The purpose behind portfolio strategy pieces is to give readers meaningful, usable instruction on how to achieve a certain portfolio objective. Therefore, it’s important that portfolio strategy articles lead with their purpose, whether it’s a certain income threshold, maximizing gains, risk-adjusted returns, or another outcome. These outcomes should also be quantified so readers can validate the effectiveness of the strategy: Sharpe, Sortino, CAGR, max drawdown, reinvestment ratio for high-yield ETFs that experience NAV drag, correlations between assets, and other methods help readers understand what the strategy has done in the past. Examining these should also inform what you feel the strategy can do going forward, so using forward metrics, like forward standard deviation and forward P/E, for example, can support your view. Even all-weather strategies should let readers know what they can expect in the near term.
Though backward-looking analytics can help support a forward-looking use, they shouldn’t be solely relied on to prove how a strategy may play out in the future. You should explain what makes you believe prior performance should repeat, or change, in the environment ahead, as Cain Lee does in his article on SCHD. If you use a backtest, please be sure that you don’t formulate a future view based on this only, as it’s easy to select securities looking at markets in the rearview mirror. This incorrect use of a backtest isn’t helpful or instructive to readers, so please ensure that any backtests are used to test for some of the quantitative metrics you’d use, keeping in mind an application of your analysis to your view of what’s ahead.
Each portfolio strategy article should stand on its own, even if it’s an update to prior work on the same topic. Feel free to reference prior articles, but also present all the necessary information readers would need for their main takeaways.
As with other articles, a discussion of risks should include what could make the strategy not yield the desired outcome. This could reference both changes in the environment you foresee and asset-specific behavior. Peter Richman does this well in his article on valuations, which frames the current market through the lens of several qualitative and quantitative filters, giving readers a framework for the upcoming environment.
And lastly, given that the primary point behind portfolio strategy articles is delivering practical applications of investment insights, please avoid articles that heavily focus on proprietary methods or securities, in line with our black box guidelines. You don’t need to give away your trade secrets, but an overview of a purely black box method is not very useful for readers and can come off as overly promotional. Please be sure to include valuable insights and instructions readers can apply to their portfolios without having to purchase your service. One example of how this can be done is in this recent piece by Sungarden Investment Publishing, where a simple SPY/BIL strategy is used as a way to capture some of what the proprietary portfolio can accomplish.
Prediction Markets and Analysis: Best Practices
Love ‘em or hate ‘em – prediction markets are all the rage. Everything from wagers on clinical trials for biotechs to betting on streaming numbers for an on-the-rise indie music song is gaining attention, not only from everyday gamblers but also investors.
Our guidelines for articles:
We will allow analysts, on a limited basis, to cite statistics from prediction market bets to help support their analysis. But we emphasize that this should only be used as supporting information and not the sole focus of the article.
We will not allow recommendations on making a bet in prediction markets. And we ask analysts to disclose if they have placed a bet on a prediction market outcome.
Editors have discretion for the use of information on prediction markets in articles. Analysts can reach out to editors at submissions@seekingalpha.com with questions or ideas on how to use information on prediction markets.
Article Competition Is On! Best Industry Disruptor
Don’t forget Seeking Alpha’s latest article competition.
The Best Industry Disruptor Competition goes until Aug. 24, so you have plenty of time to submit an entry. We’re looking forward to seeing all the ideas.
Details can be found here.
Introductions: Some “Outside the Box” Ideas from Analysts
Along with summary bullet points and titles, introductions aim to “sell” an article to readers, outlining the unique, most important parts of an analysis. Each analyst may have a different approach with introductions, but that first paragraph should clearly set the stage for what comes next for readers.
Our top advice: Make sure an introduction outlines the forward-looking, actionable, investment-specific premise. Point out previous coverage. Mentioning a previous article does not necessarily need to be in the first paragraph. But previous coverage should be in the second or third paragraph (if not in the introductory paragraph).
While most analysts take the method outlined above, some analysts have established their own unique voice at the start of an article. Writing is a creative process. And we encourage analysts to find what may work best for their articles.
Some examples that stand out:
Present something relatable: Brad Thomas often talks about the “lessons learned” in his decades of experience. Treading Softly takes a different direction, offering something more personal (on consumer choices) but also potentially relatable to readers.
Offer an analogy: Use an example outside of investment analysis that helps set up your article. Hidden Opportunities, a supporting analyst for Rida Morwa, outlines how a song’s structure can resemble parts of an investment strategy.
Challenge the status quo: Offering some snarky commentary, presenting a contrarian opinion, or trying to challenge popular sentiment at the start may likely lead to stronger reader engagement. Bret Jensen often offers a cynical angle on the current macro picture that leads to a lot of comments (just keep in mind our article comment guidelines).
Keep it short: This is not something we recommend for every article. But a short introductory sentence may help entice readers to read further into the analysis. Joseph L. Shaefer takes this approach with this “lightning strikes twice” angle.
Whatever direction is taken, make sure there’s sufficient detail regarding your investment premise at the start. Editors often use the introduction (or the bullet points at the top) for article optimization purposes. And you want to establish what readers can expect at the top.
And don’t forget to create a strong conclusion. A strong finish generates more reader interest (think comments). And writing the conclusion first may help with the creation of an impactful introduction. More on the parallels between the introduction and conclusion can be found here.
Looking Ahead to August
The last week of July features a significant number of earnings reports from highly followed companies, and the momentum keeps going into August. The quantity and the importance taper off a bit in the back half of the month. We also see several themes each week during the month as it starts out tech-heavy and then shifts to a retail focus in week 3. Please keep in mind that as we get further out in the month, some of the earnings dates haven’t been confirmed by the companies yet, and these are estimated dates.
Seeking Alpha Earnings Calendar
Week 1 (August 3-7)
At this point all but one of the Magnificent 7 should have reported earnings, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some heavyweight reports still due. On Monday, highly followed Palantir (PLTR) will lead the charge, and it will be joined by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), and Marriott (MAR). Tuesday brings a mix of sectors with 11 different companies expected to report with market caps of more than $100 billion. The largest of them all is AMD (AMD), and it’s joined by another big tech name in Arista Networks (ANET). We will also hear from industrial powerhouse Caterpillar (CAT) as well as healthcare heavyweights Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), and Pfizer (PFE). Not to be left out, consumer discretionary will see Toyota Motor (TM) and McDonald’s (MCD) reporting.
Wednesday doesn’t show much of a let up as eight more $100B-plus companies are expected to report. Eli Lilly (LLY) is one of three trillion-dollar companies reporting during week 1, and it’s set to report before the open. Joining the pharmaceutical giant are tech firms Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Shopify (SHOP), and AppLovin (APP). Disney (DIS), Uber (UBER) and CVS Health (CVS) round out those with a market cap above $100B.
Thursday is the busiest day of the entire month of August (and all earnings season) with a total of 435 companies expected to report. The most anticipated report will come from the largest IPO in history, Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX), in its first report since going public. We all also expect to hear from energy giants Conoco Phillips (COP) and Petróleo Brasileiro (PBR). Two industrial names round out the reports for companies in the $100B club, Parker-Hannifin (PH) and Howmet Aerospace. Friday does see a drop-off in highly followed names reporting, with Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) being the biggest ones. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) is expected to report on Saturday, Aug. 8.
Week 2 (August 10-14)
Week 2 starts to see a bit of a let-up in terms of companies with market caps over $100B, as we don’t see any of these giants until Wednesday. Monday’s docket is led by Simon Property Group (SPG) and Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) as well as Circle Internet Group (CRCL), which has been gaining followers recently. Moving over to Tuesday, we see Asian-focused retailer Sea Limited (SE) along with Lumentum (LITE) and Cardinal Health (CAH) all expected to report.
Wednesday features the biggest report (in terms of market cap) with Cisco Systems (CSCO) reporting after the close. Another highly followed name reporting on Wednesday is Oklo (OKLO). Looking out to Thursday, we expect to hear from Applied Materials (AMAT) along with Alibaba (BABA). Coherent (COHR) is the only company reporting on Friday with a market cap above $50B.
Week 3 (August 17-21)
As we move to week 3, the total number of reports really drops off, but we start to see a shift in terms of sectors that dominate the reports. Monday shows that Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Zoom Communications (ZM) are the headliners expected to report that day. Tuesday brings us Home Depot’s (HD) report, and it kicks off a string of days where we expect to hear from members of the retail sector. Keysight Technologies (KEYS) is also expected to report on Tuesday.
Wednesday’s biggest report (in terms of market cap) comes from Analog Devices (ADI), and it’s joined by three big retail names: The TJX Companies (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), and Target (TGT). The retail theme continues on Thursday when we expect to hear from the world’s largest retailer, Walmart (WMT), as well as Ross Stores (ROSS). Deere & Company (DE), NetEase (NTES), and Intuit (INTU) are also expected to report. As for Friday, Baidu (BIDU) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) are the only two large caps expected to report.
Week 4 (August 24-31)
Looking at the last full week of August, the number of reports continues to wane. On Monday, Heico (HEI) is the only large cap expected to report. The software industry is in the spotlight on Tuesday with reports expected from CrowdStrike (CRWD), Autodesk (ADSK), and Workday (WDAY), and they’re joined by Affirm Holdings (AFRM), MongoDB (MDB), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and Best Buy (BBY), to name a few.
Despite the drop-off in reports, Wednesday is a huge day as we expect to hear from Nvidia (NVDA), and that may be the most closely watched report of the entire earnings season. We also expect to hear from Salesforce (CRM), PDD Holdings (PDD), Snowflake (SNOW), and Synopsis (SNPS), among others expected to report. Moving out to Thursday, we see a mix of tech names and retail names expected to report. Marvell Technology (MRVL) leads the charge along with HP Inc. (HPQ), Burlington Stores (BURL), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA). We also expect to hear from Chinese automakers XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) that day. The last two days of August don’t feature any companies with a market cap over $10B.
August Investor and Industry Events
August 1 – Chinese electric vehicle makers NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, and BYD report deliveries
August 1 – One-year anniversary of T-Mobile and US Cellular merging
August 1-6 – Black Hat USA conference
August 2 – OPEC+ online meeting of seven voluntary-cut producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) to review market conditions and set September production
August 3 – Fed SLOOS report expected
August 3 – Merck & Co., Inc. Business Update Call
August 5 – Costco reports monthly sales
August 6-9 – DEF Con security event
August 7 – Manheim Used Car Index report
August 7 – Approximate day Boeing and Airbus report monthly deliveries
August 9-11 – KeyBanc Technology Leadership Forum (includes AMD)
August 12-13 – JP Morgan Auto Conference
August 12 – WASDE report on major crops
August 12 – Google Pixel media event
August 12 – OPEC monthly oil report
August 13 – NFL Madden 27 releases
August 13 – SanDisk Corporation Investor Day
August 13 – IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. Investor Day
August 14 – 13F filings due from hedge funds
August 17 – FDA action date on Bristol-Myers’ Iberdomide
August 22 – FDA action date on Capricor Therapeutics’ Deramiocel
August 23 – Jefferies Semiconductor, IT Hardware & Communications Technology Conference
August 25-27 – The Six Five Summit: AI Unleashed event
August 27 – Gentex Corporation Investor Day
August 29 – College football season begins
August 30 – CrowdStrike inaugural Day Zero Threat Research Summit
August 31 – MSCI quarterly review
August 31 – VMware Explore
August 31 – Fed’s G.20 Finance Companies report
Major Economic Reports and Events
August 3 – ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending
August 4 – Trade Balance, Factory Orders
August 5 – ADP Employment Change, ISM Services
August 6 – Q2 Productivity, Unit Labor Costs
August 7 – July Employment Report
August 11 – Existing Home Sales
August 12 – CPI, Treasury Budget
August 13 – PPI
August 14 – Retail Sales, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
August 17 – NAHB Housing Market Index
August 18 – Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Pending Home Sales
August 19- FOMC Minutes
August 25 – Building Permits, S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Index, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales
August 26 – PCE Price Index, Personal Income Personal Spending, Durable Orders
