Good morning and welcome to FirstFT. In today’s newsletter:
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Much of SpaceX’s IPO valuation rests on ‘moonshot’ goals
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Hungary develops AI model to hunt Orbán corruption
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GSK and Nuvalent discuss potential merger
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The pick-and-shovel groups benefiting from the AI boom
We begin with SpaceX, where as much as $1tn of the company’s $1.78tn initial public offering rests on a series of ambitious “moonshot” goals that investors must bet will be achieved to justify Elon Musk’s lofty price tag.
The goals: According to people involved in the record listing, investor presentations and research circulated ahead of the IPO, much of the valuation rests on assumptions that SpaceX can reach Mars, put data centres into orbit and play a key role in developing AI.
Investors are also assuming that SpaceX can drive home its existing advantages by making Starlink the dominant communications network and its reusable rockets will help create new markets outside Earth.
Valuation debate: Analysts said that if the company achieved its moonshots, its target price would be justified, but on the basis of its current performance SpaceX was worth just $780bn.
Ahead of Friday’s IPO, some existing investors in the company have questioned the massive valuation, at which the lossmaking company would trade at 92 times last year’s revenue, a multiple that far outstrips that of other Big Tech companies.
However, others are more bullish, pointing to the company’s massive lead in making rockets, Musk’s technical record and AI’s untapped market opportunities. Some bulls, particularly Silicon Valley investors, have tens of billions of dollars riding on the outcome. Read the full story.
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OpenAI: The ChatGPT creator has filed to go public in a blockbuster listing likely to value the group at more than $1tn as it races rival Anthropic to Wall Street.
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More tech news: Apple has revealed a long-awaited AI overhaul of its voice assistant Siri, showing it aims to compete with chatbots such as ChatGPT and Claude.
Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:
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NB8 summit: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy joins Nordic and Baltic leaders in Estonia to discuss the impact of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
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US: Congressional primary contests will be held in several states in preparation for the November midterm elections.
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Economic data: Germany releases April production statistics, while the UK posts retail sales and mortgage lending figures. The US publishes April trade data.
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Results: Bellway and Oxford Instruments report earnings.
Five more top stories
1. Exclusive: ASML has warned the EU against intervening directly in semiconductor supply chains, arguing that reducing reliance on foreign technology requires building stronger companies on the continent. Read the interview with Christophe Fouquet, head of Europe’s most valuable company.
2. BP investors and former executives are concerned the UK oil major may lose momentum over the aggressive cost-cutting and restructuring plan driven by Albert Manifold before his abrupt exit last month. They pledged to continue with the ousted chair’s strategy but called for greater clarity.
3. Exclusive: GSK is in talks to buy US cancer drugmaker Nuvalent for more than $9bn, in what would be the FTSE 100 company’s biggest acquisition in more than a decade. The companies were locked in discussions late yesterday with the aim of agreeing a deal as soon as this week, said people familiar with the matter.
4. Hungary’s anti-corruption office has developed an AI model to track the money allegedly siphoned off during former prime minister Viktor Orbán’s 16 years in power. The country’s Integrity Authority said the new government led by Péter Magyar is keen to move fast on recovering an estimated €160bn in public funds that may have been improperly awarded.
5. Renault aims to cap revenue from drone manufacturing and other defence ventures at 5 per cent. The move highlights the French carmaker’s cautious approach to an industry-wide pivot to military contracts as the sector seeks to counter weak consumer demand and competition from China.
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Ajax boost: The UK will divert an extra £250mn to its troubled armoured vehicle programme over the next four years, with lifetime costs set to reach an additional £1bn.
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Fighter jet turbulence: Germany has told France it wants to quit a €100bn joint fighter jet project, proposing instead that partners focus on the “combat cloud” system linking aircraft, drones and satellites.
News in-depth
Intesa’s €30.6bn takeover bid for Monte dei Paschi di Siena is the latest twist in a consolidation saga that has engulfed Italian banking since the government returned MPS to private hands in 2024. Read more on the battle to break up the world’s oldest lender.
We’re also reading . . .
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How to argue with AI: Making a cognitive effort and forcing agents to critique their own thinking can make users sharper, writes neuroscientist Vivienne Ming.
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Britain’s ‘cathedral to nature’: Three factors explain record attendance figures for London’s Natural History Museum.
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Empty seats: Ticket touts face losses after nearly 180,000 World Cup passes remained available just days before the tournament kicks off.
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Special report: South Africa dominates the FT’s 2026 ranking of Africa’s fastest-growing companies as Kenya leapfrogs Nigeria and an Egyptian business takes the top spot for the first time.
Join FT journalists on June 25 for a subscriber webinar on ‘Ten Years after Brexit: Can the UK deliver change?’ Register here and send us your questions.
Chart of the day
The AI boom is lifting the fortunes of hundreds of industrial, utility and mining companies, including Europe’s Hochtief, Legrand, Iberdrola and Wärtsilä, as investors turn to the “picks and shovels” needed to build and power vast data centres.
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Take a break from the news
August brings two highlights of the astronomical year — a total solar eclipse that darkens Greenland, Iceland and Spain, and the Perseid meteor shower. Interior designers say interest in such celestial spectacles has prompted an increase in requests for spaces to connect with the night sky.
