There is good news and bad news for the No. 10 seeds in this year’s NCAA Tournament.
The good news: A No. 10 seed has beaten a No. 7 seed in each of the last 17 tournaments. The bad news: Just two No. 10 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in the past eight tournaments.
This year Missouri, Santa Clara, Texas A&M and UCF are the No. 10 seeds that will try to get past the first weekend. But they first must get past the first round.
No. 7 vs. No. 10 seed upset rankings
We’ll look at the matchups between this year’s No. 7 and No. 10 seeds and rank which upsets are most likely to occur. These are ordered from least likely to most likely.
4. Texas A&M over Saint Mary’s
Like the school’s football team last fall, the Texas A&M basketball team started off hot and faded down the stretch. The Aggies (21-11) began the season 17-4 overall and 7-1 in SEC play before losing seven of their last 11 and squeaking into the 68-team field.
Thursday’s game will be a contrast of styles. A&M plays at the 29th fastest tempo in the country (70.5 possessions per 40 minutes), which is a major reason the team averages 87.7 points per game (ninth in the nation). Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s ranks 298th in tempo (65.2 possessions per 40). Despite playing at a slower tempo—or perhaps because of it—the Gaels have a more efficient offense than A&M, averaging 120.4 points per 100 possessions to the Aggies’ 119.7.
Saint Mary’s, on paper, has a big advantage on the boards. The 12th tallest team in the country per KenPom, the Gaels rank fourth in the nation in rebounding margin (11.3 per game). By contrast, A&M is 228th in Div. I in rebound margin (-0.2). Rebounding and tempo are two reasons why Saint Mary’s limits opponents to just 64.6 points per game (seventh in the country).
In addition, the Aggies are prone to fouling; they rank 325th in the nation in fouls per game (19.3). That does not bode well against the Gaels, who lead all of Div. I in free throw shooting (80.5%).
3. UCF over UCLA
The Knights (21-11) are just 1-5 in five previous NCAA Tournament appearances but enter their first tournament since 2019 with some impressive wins: Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and BYU, among others. Led by speedy point guard Themus Fulks, the Knights like to push the ball, averaging 69.2 possessions per 40 minutes (79th in the nation). UCF will want to play the game at its tempo against a UCLA team that ranks 318th in possessions per 40 (64.7).
But the Knights are not playing their best basketball. They have lost four of their last five, and the only win over that time was an overtime victory over Cincinnati at home.
By contrast, the Bruins (23-11) have won four of their last five and six of their last eight. That stretch includes victories over No. 8 Michigan State, No. 9 Nebraska and No. 10 Illinois.
UCF’s chances to pull off the upset would be greatly enhanced if UCLA’s top two leading scorers, Tyler Bilodeau (17.6 points per game) and Donovan Dent (13.5), cannot return from the injuries that sidelined them last week in the Big Ten tournament. But Dent says he’s back to 100%, and coach Mick Cronin said that Bilodeau should return to practice this week.
2. Santa Clara over Kentucky
The $22 million team going down in the first round to a program that hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1996? It certainly would not be a surprise.
The Kentucky Wildcats (21-13) have been up-and-down in coach Mark Pope’s second season—mostly down if you ask a rabid Big Blue fan. But one thing that has been consistent is the team’s struggles shooting the ball from the perimeter. The Wildcats make just 34.1% from beyond the 3-point arc, which is 178th in the country.
What should also give the Santa Clara Broncos (26-8) confidence is their ability to force turnovers. Broncos opponents commit 14.1 turnovers a game, which is 31st in the nation. When Kentucky has committed at least 14 turnovers a game this season, the Wildcats have gone 2-4.
Christian Hammond leads Santa Clara is scoring (15.8 points per game), but the outcome on this game will hinge on the Broncos’ ability to get deflections and steals and turn them into points.
1. Missouri over Miami
How many times before tipoff will we hear that this game will be played in St. Louis? Despite being seeded No. 10 to Miami’s No. 7, the Missouri Tigers (20-12) will play a de facto home game on Friday night. That’s significant considering the Tigers were 15-3 at home this season and just 5-9 either on the road or in neutral-site games. But beware: the Hurricanes were excellent on the road this season, going 8-2 in true road games.
Missouri’s do-it-all star Mark Mitchell has been terrific all season but has been a monster down the stretch. With a 7-foot-1 wingspan, the frame of a Marine and above-average explosiveness, Mitchell leads the team in scoring (18.3 points per game) while also averaging 5.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists. In his last two games, he has gone off, averaging 32.0 points while shooting 58.5% from the field.
But despite his heroics, the Tigers enter the tournament on a three-game losing streak.
On Friday, Mitchell and Missouri will catch a Miami team that struggles shooting from the perimeter. The Hurricanes rank 293rd in the country in 3-pointers per game (6.6). In their most recent outing, a 22-point blowout loss to Virginia, they went just 4-of-20 from behind the arc.
If the Tigers can limit Miami’s points in the paint, they have a chance to send the crowd home happy.
