Sunday marks 100 days into the war that the United States and Israel launched against Iran.
But as fighting and ceasefire negotiations continue to grind on, the conflict remains overwhelmingly unpopular among the US public, making it a political liability for President Donald Trump and his Republican Party.
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Even before the war started, public opinion polls showed that most Americans opposed bombing Iran. When the fighting began, the numbers did not improve, with many US voters perceiving the war as unnecessary and detrimental to the country.
“What’s really clear is that few Americans think that this war with Iran serves American interests,” said Shibley Telhami, a professor of peace and development at the University of Maryland, who has conducted polling on the war.
The lack of public backing for the war is consequential, experts say, because it could weaken Trump politically at home.
Democrats are hoping to regain control of Congress in the midterm elections in November, which could derail Trump’s agenda for the rest of his presidency.
A University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll suggested on Thursday that only 16 percent of US voters think the US has won or is winning the war.
The findings show that the US public is not convinced by the president’s repeated claims of victory.
The survey also found that a majority of voters, including 33 percent of Republicans, say the war has had more negative than positive effects on US interests.
In comparison, only 12 percent of respondents, including 25 percent of Republicans, said the war’s impact has been more positive than negative.
Telhami called the results “stunning”.
“This assessment now that the war has become more detrimental to America’s interests among Republicans is a major turning point because it seems to hold for older as well as younger Republicans, and that I think spells trouble for Trump ahead,” he told Al Jazeera.
Persisting blockades
The US and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several top officials as well as hundreds of civilians.
Iran responded with missile and drone attacks against Israel and across the region. It also immediately shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping lane for energy products, sending oil and gas prices soaring.
A truce was reached on April 6, but skirmishes have continued to break out in the Gulf, and the Iranian blockade in Hormuz has persisted. The US has also imposed its own naval siege on Iranian ports.
Despite frequent assertions by Trump that the two sides are close to a deal, there has been no major diplomatic breakthrough to end the state of “no war, no peace”.
Since the ceasefire started, there has been no intense fighting, but that has not improved perceptions about the conflict in the US.
“It’s just a very unpopular war,” said Jonathan Guyer, a programme director at the Institute for Global Affairs (IGA), which has done polling about the conflict.
“It’s a little more popular among Republicans than Democrats, but still, there’s a quotient of Republican dissent that’s really interesting.”
An IGA poll last month showed 58 percent of respondents, including 21 percent of Republicans, disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war.
Only 24 percent said the conflict is making the US more safe.
While foreign policy rarely ranks near the top of voters’ priorities, the closure of the Hormuz Strait is hitting Americans in their wallets and fuelling inflation.
Americans seem to be keenly aware of the link.
The IGA survey suggested that 79 percent of voters, including a majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents, say the war “has affected the cost of living” in the US.
Telhami said the conflict is now an economic problem for the US, not just a foreign policy one, and that will play a major role in the midterms.
“It’s a pocketbook issue now,” he said. “It’s no longer just a foreign exercise. It’s no longer just something that’s taken place away from our shores.”
‘I don’t care about the midterms’
Trump has dismissed the economic fallout of the war, often pointing to recent stock market gains.
He has also argued that economic hardships are a small price to pay for achieving his goals in Iran — namely, preventing the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon, which Tehran denies seeking.
Last month, Trump suggested that domestic pressure does not play a role in his approach to the war.
“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody,” he said. “I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all. That’s the only thing that motivates me.”
He has also said that the November vote is not factoring into his Iran strategy. “I don’t care about the midterms,” he told reporters.
But Telhami believes Trump is trying to project nonchalance about the domestic implications, so that Iranians do not think he is desperate to end the war, which would weaken his negotiating position.
“He cares for a lot of reasons, one of which is legacy, particularly on economics,” Telhami told Al Jazeera.
He added that the war could turn into an economic disaster for the US, with oil prices going through the roof due to the blockades in the Gulf. That, in turn, could dent the Republican Party’s chances at the ballot box.
“It’s undoubtedly going to impact the midterm elections, and if the Republicans lose both the House and the Senate, then he’s going to be in a terrible position, unable to implement things and perhaps facing impeachment,” Telhami said.
With Americans struggling financially, critics say Trump’s dismissal of their woes may be hurting his case.
The US president also appears to be easily distracted. Posts on his Truth Social platform show interest in a range of subjects. One moment, he may post about the talks with Iran. In another, he might be attacking his opponents, criticising the media or stressing the need to build a White House ballroom.
“We have a wartime president who isn’t conducting himself with the seriousness of being a commander in chief,” Guyer said.
No build-up
Telhami also highlighted the short runway to the war. Before bombing Iran, the Trump administration did not speak to the US public about the imminent need to attack, and it did not present the issue to Congress.
If anything, the administration had been in the process of engaging in indirect negotiations over the future of Iran’s nuclear programme, with more talks planned at the time of the February 28 attack.
“In every war, presidents usually prime the public,” Telhami said. “In this particular case, there was no attempt to build up to a justification for the war.”
By contrast, then-President George W Bush and his aides spent months drumming up the supposed threat from Iraq before invading the country in 2003.
“That build-up included making a case for the war. Yes, it was a phony case, but they were making a case nonetheless. A lot of the public started believing it,” Telhami said.
The professor underscored that Trump has presented himself as a “peace” president, and he has vocally opposed past military involvements in the Middle East.
Trump’s anti-interventionist stance as a candidate may have helped get him elected. Polls have shown that the US public had grown weary of war after decades of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
For Guyer, that signals the unpopularity of the Iran war is not just about the economy.
He said the conflict may sway voters because it is linked to other issues that Americans care about, like Washington’s ties to Israel and the ballooning US military budget, which is set to hit $1.5 trillion.
“The unpopularity of Israel, the unpopularity of the Iran war, the unpopularity of US militarism — these have a lot of resonance and really seem to show that foreign policy is important to Americans,” he told Al Jazeera.
