The 2026 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 2 at 6:57 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., marking the beginning of Triple Crown season in horse racing. The 152nd Run for the Roses has Renegade listed as the favorite at 4-1 in the latest Kentucky Derby 2026 odds, and the horse is deserving of top billing after winning the Arkansas Derby. However, Renegade drawing the No. 1 inside post could push those betting on the Kentucky Derby to lean towards Further Ado (6-1), Commandment (6-1) or other contenders. Bet the Kentucky Derby with the exclusive TwinSpires offer code CBSSPORTS to receive up to $400 in bonus bets here, double what’s available to the general public:
Should you back Renegade despite his starting position and connections having bad luck in the Derby? Would Further Ado, Commandment or another horse offer more value, or is there a longshot in the field you would be best served putting your bets on? Before locking in any 2026 Kentucky Derby bets, you need to see the 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions and best bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing guru Jeff Hochman.
Hochman has shown a profit in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races. One example of his best picks was Big Brown in the 2008 Kentucky Derby at odds of 2-1. More recently, he swept the 2022 Triple Crown, capped off by Mo Donegal’s easy win in the Belmont Stakes. In 2023, he cashed the Preakness with National Treasure. In 2024, he successfully tabbed Straight No Chaser to win, place and show in the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship at odds of 3-2.
Hochman delivered exceptional handicapping results during the summer 2025 racing season at two of the country’s premier tracks, Saratoga and Del Mar. His combined 65.7% win rate across the two tracks represents elite-level performance that significantly exceeds industry benchmarks for professional handicappers.
Now, Hochman has handicapped the 2026 Kentucky Derby field and revealed his picks. Go here to see them.
Top 2026 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Hochman’s surprising 2026 Kentucky Derby picks: Cox brings two of the top favorites to this year’s race in Commandment and Further Ado, and both were listed at 6-1 odds, trailing only the favorite, Renegade, who is 4-1. Despite being viewed as a top contender, Commandment is not a horse that Hochman is high on this weekend.
The last time we saw Commandment was March 28 when he won the Florida Derby, edging out another top Derby Contender — The Puma, who ended up scratching from the Kentucky Derby Saturday morning. Despite Commandment emerging victorious in that race, Hochman has some questions, namely in terms of his overall speed.
“Commandment’s 1:49.99 race time is slow compared to recent winners,” Hochman says. “His peak came in the Fountain of Youth, posting a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, but he dropped to 96 in the Florida Derby.” See who to back at SportsLine, and you can sign up for FanDuel Racing here to get $25 in bonuses with a $5 wager:
How to make 2026 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Moreover, Hochman’s top pick is a horse with “remarkable finishing speed.” He also is high on a double-digit longshot who is “peaking at the perfect moment.” Hochman is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2026 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2026, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2026 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Hochman’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has a 65.7% win rate and has cashed in 22 of the past 39 Triple Crown races.
