Welcome to The Debrief, a Sky Sports column in which Adam Bate uses a blend of data and opinion to reflect on some of the key stories from the latest Premier League matches. This week:
- Watkins’ numbers becoming a concern
- Pope’s shot-stopping under scrutiny
- Why Garner is now Everton’s key man
What’s happened to Watkins at Villa?
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Highlights from Wolves’ match against Aston Villa in the Premier League
Given that Aston Villa were, Unai Emery has now admitted, in a Premier League title race until a month ago, it is perhaps surprising to note that their centre-forward Ollie Watkins is having his most difficult season since joining the club almost six years ago.
Watkins had a decent chance to give Villa a first-half lead at Wolves but was unable to get his shot away quickly enough after being put through on goal. Emery’s out-of-form side went on to lose 2-0 to the bottom club and have now dropped to fourth in the table.
Calls for Tammy Abraham to start are growing. Watkins has scored only once in his last 11 appearances. He might point to the absence of Youri Tielemans’ passes but his problems are twofold. His finishing levels have dipped and his dynamic movement is down too.
Throughout his five previous seasons at Villa, Watkins’ goal tally had tracked his expected goals numbers consistently. He had scored 75 Premier League goals with an expected goals figure of 75.11. An average of 0.44 goals per 90 minutes on both metrics in that time.
This season, his goals per 90 minutes tally of 0.34 is as low as it has been since being at the same level in the season that Dean Smith was replaced by Steven Gerrard and Villa finished 14th. Interestingly, his expected goals is also at its lowest since that campaign.
Why isn’t Watkins getting the same volume of chances? Emery needs to work on that with his team but one concern might be that Watkins, now 30, could be losing a little of the spark that set him apart. The intensity of his work up top is integral to his game.
His top speed this season is 33.12 kilometres per hour, which is down on last season, which was down on the season before that, which was down on his record high of 36.10 kilometres per hour in the 2021/22 season. A steady dip in speed that looks like a trend.
With more clever movement and improved service, it need not be catastrophic. Watkins can find a way. But his struggle to find the spaces that he once did coupled with a lack of confidence in front of goal has put the spotlight on him. Emery is still backing his man.
Asked how Watkins could turn it around in the press conference after the Wolves defeat, Emery said: “Hard work and looking forward. Working. Preparing the next game. And of course, he is going to score goals again.” Villa need that to be sooner rather than later.
Pope’s form is a problem for Newcastle
Eddie Howe blamed “avoidable mistakes” for Newcastle’s 3-2 home defeat to Everton, citing the concession of one goal, in particular, as the pivotal moment in the match. “The second one especially hurt us mentally,” argued Howe when speaking to the press afterwards.
There could be no denying who was responsible. It was Nick Pope who fumbled Dwight McNeil’s shot into the path of Beto. The error was his third of the Premier League campaign, according to Opta. No player has made more such errors leading to goals this season.
Nick Pope’s shots faced on target map for Newcastle this season
What will frustrate the Newcastle goalkeeper is that he himself has never made this many mistakes before in any season dating back to his Premier League debut for Burnley in 2017. It is the manner of the mistakes that is surprising given his hard-earned reputation.
Pope’s kicking has long been regarded as a weakness but his shot-stopping and handling of the ball have always been his strengths. This latest error was another that had nothing to do with his uncertainty with the ball at his feet. It is becoming a problem.
Howe will have been aware that there was always a trade-off with Pope. Others were more assured on the ball, but the Newcastle goalkeeper has consistently prevented more goals than expected – outperforming the expected-goals metric year after year.
This season, he has dipped below it, costing more goals than the average goalkeeper. With Aaron Ramsdale already sat on the bench and fans encouraging the club to buy a new goalkeeper in the summer, it is a tricky time for a player who turns 34 next month.
Asked to elaborate on Pope specifically, Howe added at the weekend: “I think it is difficult for me to comment on any one player or any one position. Just collectively, we have got to defend our goal better.” But Pope is surely under pressure to raise his levels again.
Why Garner is Everton’s key player
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Highlights from the Premier League match between Newcastle and Everton
It was Jordan Pickford’s stunning save that allowed Everton to leave St James’ Park with three points on Saturday. But it was the performance of James Garner that set it up with a dominant midfield display. He has been Everton’s best player this season.
In the second half, in particular, Garner screened the defence, providing protection with his interceptions. In total, there were six of them in the game. Nobody else made that many over the Premier League weekend. Nobody else in the game made more than one.
It is the intensity of his work in those defensive areas that catches the eye. For high-intensity pressures in central zones inside his own half, Garner ranks ahead of the similarly industrious Dominik Szoboszlai and Joao Gomes as the league’s standout player.
For overall distance covered in the Premier League, he is fourth. But Garner is more than a runner, he has shown quality in possession for Everton this season, not just tidy in his work but often the midfielder who takes responsibility for making those incisive passes.
James Garner’s minutes by position for Everton in the Premier League this season
David Moyes certainly relies on him. Speaking to the Everton boss after Garner scored a fine goal from left-back in the opening Premier League game at the club’s new stadium in August, he said: “He is really a midfield player. His versatility is so important to us.”
Thankfully for Garner, he has since moved to his favoured role and is flourishing. With Everton up to eighth, wider recognition could follow. Uncapped by England, he turns 25 later this month and timing is everything. Do not rule out that World Cup call just yet.
