Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: Cambodia and Thailand agree to arbitration over their maritime dispute, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra receives a royal pardon, the Malaysian central government feels the heat from two early state elections, and Singapore cracks down on vapes.
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Cambodia-Thailand Arbitration Masks Danger
Six months after fighting ended between Cambodia and Thailand, their relationship remains dangerously unsettled.
On June 5, Thailand said it will join the United Nations arbitration process launched by Cambodia to resolve the two countries’ maritime boundary dispute. At the same time, though, Thailand announced that bilateral efforts to resolve its contested land borders with Cambodia would be put on hold. Peace talks on the land border look stalled, and small skirmishes have taken place along the border. A third round of fighting looks unlikely—but certainly not impossible.
The cease-fire remains in place, but as recently as May, Thailand accused Cambodian soldiers of firing shots along the border. Cambodia has accused Thailand of occupying areas it previously accepted as Cambodian territory. Thailand has kept the border closed despite the economic cost. Now Thailand has an excuse to abandon the border peace talks it has been slow-walking for months. Association of Southeast Asian Nations attempts to keep Thailand and Cambodia moving toward a peace deal seem to have flopped. And without change, the border dispute will remain a frozen conflict, not a solved one.
Meanwhile, what of the maritime boundary dispute now facing arbitration?
The process now being launched is the compulsory conciliation provision of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). At stake is a stretch of water with an estimated $300 billion worth of energy resources under it, claimed by both Cambodia and Thailand.
The trigger to Cambodia launching this process was Thailand tearing up a 2001 agreement declaring an intention to agree on a framework to jointly develop any valuable resources in the area. The mechanism has only been used once before—also in Southeast Asia, to rule on boundaries between Australia and Timor-Leste in 2016.
Thailand has up until now tried to avoid international arbitration, feeling bilateral negotiations favored it. It has now said it will participate in the process, though it is clearly not thrilled about it.
“I told my Cambodian colleagues, ‘Why don’t we give talks a chance? Six months or something,’” Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow told Reuters.
Thailand has also said it rejects the discussion of resource sharing alongside the maritime border at the conciliation. But shared resources is a vital issue.
So, what is Thailand actually up to?
I have some hunches here. First, by participating, it might be hoping to assert some influence over the process—most obviously by trying to ring-fence the resource issue. Secondly, Southeast Asia as a region puts a lot of emphasis on the importance of international law. Phuangketkeow is a career diplomat, and conspicuous non-cooperation with international law might just be thought to look too bad. Lastly, even if Thailand feels the conciliation goes against its interests, this needn’t cost it anything. As the text of the UNCLOS annex on compulsory conciliation plainly states, “The report of the commission, including its conclusions or recommendations, shall not be binding upon the parties.”
Thaksin pardoned. On June 3, Thaksin Shinawatra, former prime minister of Thailand, received a royal pardon for corruption and conflict of interest.
Released on parole last month, Shinawatra will now return to Dubai, the city where he spent 15 years as a political exile. Many will take this as a tacit admission of defeat by the billionaire who for decades split Thai politics.
Elected in 2001, Shinawatra dominated Thai politics until he was toppled by a coup in 2006. He only returned to his home country in 2023.
Sentenced to eight years in prison shortly after his return, this was commuted to one year, which he spent mainly in a suite at Bangkok’s Police General Hospital. However, after the government controlled by his daughter fell last year, courts ruled the sentence had not been properly served and ordered him to jail.
Following February’s election, the power of Shinawatra and his dynasty has declined sharply. His party is now a junior coalition partner in a government led by a conservative populist who made deep inroads into former Shinawatra-loyalist areas.
State election time. Malaysia is facing two early state elections that could pile further pressure on the central government, which has hinted at an early general election.
Johor, one of Malaysia’s most important economic hubs, has to hold elections by July 31, having dissolved its state assembly on June 1. This action was launched by the United Malay National Organization (UMNO), which governs the state but is a junior partner in the national coalition.
In Negeri Sembilan, a small state, elections must be held by Aug. 4, with the state assembly having dissolved on June 5. The election here was triggered by Pakatan Harapan (PH), which runs the state and is the top partner in the federal government, in response to UMNO calling the Johor election. It is also wrapped up in an arcane constitutional struggle over an attempt to depose the sultan of the state.
The polls are a slugging match between nominal federal allies PH and UMNO. With PH looking weak, UMNO has decided the time to strike is now. State-level victories could strengthen its hand and propel it back to the top of Malaysian politics.
Just to add to the confusion, the opposition alliance, Perikatan Nasional, has split. In some seats we can expect to see up to four candidates running.
Earthquake hits Mindanao. An earthquake measuring magnitude 7.8 struck the southern Philippines island of Mindanao on the morning of June 8. Preliminary reports indicate that at least 35 people were killed, with more than 200 injured in the disaster.
Fourteen of those casualties were reportedly the result of a landslide that buried people in their homes at the base of a mountain in Glan municipality. Tsunami warnings were also issued. Thankfully, though, waves caused only limited damage in a few areas.
The Philippines has mobilized military units to conduct disaster rescue operations. Classes at all levels have also been suspended in disaster-affected areas. This earthquake struck just eight months after the Philippines suffered its deadliest quake in 12 years, which killed at least 79 people on the island of Cebu.
How the response is handled will be watched closely. The perception that the government botched its response to catastrophic floods last year combined with a corruption scandal could shake the government.
FP’s Most Read This Week
In Focus: Singapore’s War on Vapes
“What if I told you the evil that takes away our children doesn’t hide under the bed?” intones the narrator as ominous music plays and a young person walks blearily through a dark corridor. What you’re seeing is not an ad for a horror film but one component of Singapore’s all-out campaign against vapes. Vapes have been illegal in the country since 2018. And in March, the government further toughened up laws against them.
The punishments, in typically Singaporean style, are fairly ferocious. Users can be fined up to $7,800. Sellers can be fined more than $155,000 and face up to six years in prison. And people smuggling them into the country can be fined up to $233,000 and face a maximum of nine years in prison. In 2025, the courts even sent a 15-year-old caught repeatedly with vapes to a “boys’ home”—that is, a juvenile detention and rehabilitation center—for two years.
Why is Singapore so resolutely opposed?
The initial ban in 2018 was precautionary. While some governments embraced it as a lower-harm cigarette alternative, Singapore said it wanted to wait while it weighed evidence about the long-term effects on health.
Since then, its stance has hardened. Vapes can lure young people into becoming smokers, the government has argued. And they also carry another hidden risk, it says. A cigarette can be smoked and finished, the argument goes. A vape can be pulled on nearly endlessly—and is often packed with nicotine.
This may well be true, but there’s a whiff of a good old-fashioned moral panic, too. Attacks on K-pods, which are vapes laced with illicit drugs, have become a big part of the official anti-vape push.
