Call it the hornet’s nest of Hormuz. Since Iran shut the strait at the start of March, there have been so many contradictory announcements that no one knew whether trying to pass the crucial thoroughfare was shrewd or foolhardy. But now there’s a peace deal, one that U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social would “fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade.”
The moment that everyone had been waiting for has arrived. “Ships of the World, start your engines,” Trump wrote in the same post. Starting a ship’s engine is, alas, the easiest part (and the engines have been on all along). The question now is how to get all the trapped ships out of the Persian Gulf in a safe and orderly fashion—and what happens if some don’t make it out.
Call it the hornet’s nest of Hormuz. Since Iran shut the strait at the start of March, there have been so many contradictory announcements that no one knew whether trying to pass the crucial thoroughfare was shrewd or foolhardy. But now there’s a peace deal, one that U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social would “fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade.”
The moment that everyone had been waiting for has arrived. “Ships of the World, start your engines,” Trump wrote in the same post. Starting a ship’s engine is, alas, the easiest part (and the engines have been on all along). The question now is how to get all the trapped ships out of the Persian Gulf in a safe and orderly fashion—and what happens if some don’t make it out.
According to Trump’s proclamation, ships should immediately start sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, just as they had until the war started. Seafarers will be safe, and the world’s businesses and consumers will be rid of high oil prices and the specter of shortages—“Let the oil flow!”
Not so fast. Although Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf digitally signed a memorandum of understanding on June 15, the formal signing ceremony won’t take place until June 19. Until then, ships attempting to transit Hormuz will do so amid legal fog.
Hours after the deal was announced, some ships went ahead anyway. “Ships are starting to move,” Trump posted. “They are going along the Southern ‘Highway,’ which is totally safe, secure, and pristine,” he wrote, referring to the shipping route in Oman’s territorial waters.
But ship-tracking websites showed only a modest procession containing just a few oil tankers. Most others were unsurprisingly waiting for the cease-fire agreement to be officially signed. Until then, a myriad of questions remains, including whether the June 19 signing will really open the strait.
After arriving in France for the G-7 summit, Trump declared that the strait will be “completely open” on Friday, but Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that under the 14-point plan agreed upon by the United States and Iran, Hormuz will reopen not on June 19 but “within 30 days, under Iranian arrangements.” Even though some ships have safely made through out in recent days, such is the uncertainty that their success does not guarantee similar fortune for other ships.
Then there’s the risk of another flare-up. The United States, Iran, and Pakistan have said that the peace deal includes a cessation of violence in Lebanon, while Israel has said that its forces will remain there. On June 16, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran will consider any Israeli military attack on Lebanon and the continuation of its occupation a “violation of the MOU.”
If the U.S.-Iranian cease-fire does hold and most ships want to leave, then the first point of order is the order in which they should do so. Since the cease-fire only has a duration of 60 days, there is likely to be intense jockeying for slots. “Commercial pressures may also influence decisions,” said Svein Ringbakken, the managing director of the maritime war insurer DNK. “Oil, gas, and [petroleum] products coming out early bring the opportunity for significant profits. Fertilizer is valuable if delivered before the planting season but may lose value after that window closes.”
Who is in charge of determining the order of the maritime procession? Nobody knows.
“Iran is saying it’s them, while the United States is saying everyone is free to leave,” said Joshua Hutchinson, the chief commercial officer at the maritime security firm Ambrey. Indeed, some of the roughly 600 vessels stuck in the Gulf may not make it out during the 60 days, and they could face an even longer and more agonizing wait if the cease-fire isn’t followed by a permanent peace agreement.
Then there’s the question of what route to take, as the traffic separation scheme administered by Iran and Oman stopped functioning when the war broke out. Since then, what few ships have transited have used either a northern route along Iran’s coast or the southern route along the coast of Oman. The dual systems have effectively turned a two-lane road into a four-lane one.
“I believe the southern route up to now protected by the Americans will be popular, but it’s difficult to maneuver a lot of ships through both ways,” Ringbakken said. “This route can only take around 10 percent of the normal traffic volume in the strait.”
Some other ships, especially ships linked to Iran-friendly nations and ships carrying Iranian oil, will take the northern route, which is now administered by Iran’s new Persian Gulf Strait Authority. But, Ringbakken noted, “that’s really not an option for Western tonnage with today’s sanctions regime.”
That’s because Western sanctions prevent payments to Iranian authorities. Iran’s Fars news agency reported on June 15 that under the terms of the cease-fire agreement, Tehran will be able to impose fees on ships transiting through Iranian waters, and an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, told news media that “fees will be charged in exchange for the services that are provided.” That suggests that payments are permitted under the cease-fire agreement despite being banned under international sanctions. (Trump, meanwhile, told the New York Times that Hormuz would be “permanently toll-free.”)
Any shipowner considering transit also has to worry about mines. It’s unclear whether Iran knows where the mines it laid in the strait are and whether it has the equipment to swiftly remove them.
“Unless the Iranians communicate where there are mines, if they can, and some path is mine-cleared, there will be a situation where less risk-averse operators dominate early transits,” Ringbakken said. “Others will only join once proven safe.”
Indeed, Hormuz returning to normal does not just involve trapped ships getting to exit without hurdles: Traffic into the Gulf has to resume, too. If hostilities around Hormuz seem likely, shipowners will be reluctant to send ships to the Gulf.
And then there’s the matter of the “service fees.” For Western-linked ships to be able to pay such fees, the corresponding sanctions on Iran would have to be lifted. That would be a highly ironic outcome of this war.
