The morning after Ken Paxton, the hard-right, scandal-prone attorney general of Texas, handily won his state’s Republican runoff race for Senate, I asked supporters of his primary opponent, Senator John Cornyn, what they would do in the general election.
Line up behind Paxton? Consider the Democratic nominee, James Talarico? Sit out the election?
Readers who had supported Cornyn in the Republican primary, brimming with choice insults for Paxton, were ready to vent. It was a — highly unscientific! — reflection of the challenge Republicans face in “finding their kumbaya moment” after a bitterly personal primary contest, as my colleagues J. David Goodman and Lauren McGaughy wrote this week.
“Today’s Republican Party no longer reflects the values we hold dear. John Cornyn does. A good citizen, honest, hard working, a family man,” wrote in Kirk Bennett, 76, of Frisco, Texas. “May vote Democrat for the first time in my life. Character has to count.”
“I will hold my nose and vote for Talarico, the first Democrat I have ever voted for,” offered Neil Beck, 84, a retired international attorney from Missouri City, Texas.
For all of that anguish, will those sentiments actually translate into meaningful Republican-leaning votes for Talarico?
There are good reasons to be skeptical.
In these hyperpartisan times, many voters tend to return “home” to their respective political parties by Election Day, whatever their reservations about a particular candidate. Others may not vote at all in November.
Some readers noted that their priority was helping Republicans maintain control of the Senate, and others said they found Talarico, with his long history of progressive musings on social media, too liberal to stomach.
“I will still NOT vote for a Democrat, especially a left-leaner like Talarico,” wrote a reader, Kay H.C., 74, who wanted to be identified by her last initials. “Believe I am in the ‘reluctant Republican’ quadrant. I’ll vote for Paxton but will be holding my nose.”
And while there are ample signs that Hispanic voters, perhaps the most important swing demographic in Texas, have grown disillusioned with President Trump, that does not mean they will automatically embrace a Democrat. That’s especially the case for more socially conservative Hispanic voters, in an election where Republicans may spend a lot of money to try to disqualify Talarico on cultural issues.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office in a generation, either, and Paxton inspires loyalty among the conservative base.
Despite all of that, one top Republican strategist in Texas, who insisted on anonymity because of professional constraints, told me this morning that “as of right now, it looks like a very tight race.”
My colleague Shane Goldmacher had a helpful video explainer on why Democrats think they can flip Texas. Talarico is a powerhouse fund-raiser, they see Paxton as uniquely flawed, and Democratic energy is off the charts.
Talarico is also making explicit appeals to Cornyn supporters and other Republicans, both on social media and in person, and is campaigning in areas that typically favor Republicans. It’s part of his broader campaign strategy, an adviser told me, which includes efforts to run up the score in the cities, to heavily emphasize outreach to Black, Hispanic and young voters, and to overperform, for a Democrat, in rural areas.
There’s one Cornyn supporter I’ll be watching especially closely: the senator himself. He has said he intends to support the Republican ticket in the general election. But he also cryptically posted a fable today on social media about a stinging scorpion who was not to be trusted. (Was the scorpion Trump, who endorsed Paxton? Was it Paxton himself? Cornyn left it ambiguous.)
In another post, the angsty departing senator borrowed from Winston Churchill.
“Now this is not the end,” he wrote. “It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
quote of the day
“He said it would get bad because of tariffs, and he said it would get better. We’re still waiting.”
That was Owen Cheyne, 21, who listens to podcasts from influencers who supported President Trump in 2024 — like Joe Rogan and Theo Von — and has been disappointed by the president’s tariffs.
Propelled by economic worries, young men lurched to the right in the 2024 election — a 15-percent swing from 2020 — and helped Trump win the White House. But a year and a half later, some Gen Z men say they are disillusioned by his second term.
My colleagues Kellen Browning and Emma Goldberg have more.
One Number
43 percent
That’s the share of voters who are dissatisfied with both major political parties, according to a recent New York Times/Siena poll — the latest sign that the frustration that has built over the last decade will roil American politics for the foreseeable future, my colleague Ruth Igielnik writes. The malaise was especially prominent among young voters.
TAKE OUR QUIZ
This question comes from a recent article in The Times. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.)
Where did Thomas Massie, the Republican congressman from Kentucky who recently lost to a Trump-backed challenger, meet up with former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia to go fishing and have some “spicy” conversations about politics?
Taylor Robinson contributed reporting.
