Can UCLA steal the No. 1 overall seed from UConn after 51-point rout in Big Ten final?

INDIANAPOLIS — You could hear Lauren Betts and Kiki Rice coming long before they danced through the doors of the press conference room at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Sunday afternoon, an hour after dismantling Iowa, 96-45, to win the Big Ten Women’s Basketball Tournament. 

The joyous stars — Betts, the Big Ten Player of the Year, and Rice, the Big Ten Tournament Most Outstanding Player — were blasting Drake’s 2015 hit “Back to Back” from Rice’s portable speaker. Betts was on photo duty with her retro digital camera. Even off the court, they’re the perfect 1-2 punch. 

Their song choice was an unsubtle nod to their second Big Ten Tournament title in a row. This one was drama-free. Their 51-point margin of victory was the largest in the history of the storied conference’s tournament title game, and the biggest win ever by a Division-I team against a top-10 opponent. 

Statement wins don’t get any stronger, and the Bruins once again made their case that they’re the best team in the country and deserve the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The former will be decided on the court a month from now in Phoenix, but the latter will be decided over the next week by the selection committee. 

UCLA coach Cori Close is only concerned about what she and her team can control. 

“I don’t really care,” Close said when asked if her team had done enough to earn the top overall seed. “When you focus on things out of your control, it will adversely affect the things under your control. I think, if I put any energy towards that, I’m taking energy away from what it will actually take to get there. I think our focus needs to be on the how. How do we play our best basketball in March?”

Close may not care, but plenty of people outside the program do. Ahead of Selection Sunday, here’s a look at how the committee makes its decision and UCLA’s case to be No. 1 overall ahead of UConn. 

Tale of the tape: UConn vs. UCLA

The undefeated and reigning champion Huskies have been ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll all season long. They are also No. 1 in the women’s basketball NET rankings and were No. 1 in the selection committee’s top-16 reveal last week. Assuming UConn beats Villanova on Monday to win the Big East Tournament, all signs point to them being the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

But do the Huskies deserve that honor? Let’s take a look at each team’s resume. 

UConn may be undefeated, but UCLA has 10 more Quad 1 wins — their 18 Quad 1 wins are the most in the country — and six fewer Quad 4 wins. UCLA’s lone defeat came to then-No. 4 Texas in December.

Additionally, UCLA played the toughest overall schedule in the country this season, while UConn played the 58th-toughest schedule. The Huskies, to their credit, had the hardest non-conference schedule, and can do nothing about the Big East being down, but there’s no debate that UCLA played better competition over the course of the season. 

The teams had five common opponents: Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Tennessee and USC. Here’s a look at the margins of victory for each program in those respective matchups. UConn does have the edge in this department. 

Now, let’s examine some key metrics in Quad 1 games. UConn has a slight edge here, but there’s very little to differentiate the two teams statistically against the country’s best opponents. Furthermore, the stats have not yet been updated to reflect UCLA’s 51-point win over Iowa, which will give the Bruins a big statistical boost. 

Finally, UCLA is first in the country in Wins Above Bubble with a rating of 16.25, while UConn is fifth with a rating of 10.71. (Not including Sunday’s games.)

Here’s what CBS Sports Bracketologist Connor Groel, who has UConn projected as the No. 1 overall seed, had to say: “Long story short, UCLA has a better resume but based on the top-16 reveals and how dominant UConn is, I do not see an undefeated defending champion not being No. 1 overall.”

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Connor Groel

How does the selection committee make its decision?

Ahead of the 2020-21 season, the NCAA announced a new system called the NCAA Evaluation Tool — NET — as the primary modern ranking system used to assess team quality for NCAA tournament selection and seeding. 

NET evaluates a team’s opponents, game location, efficiency and results, and is based on two major components: adjusted net efficiency and team value index. Here is how those two components are calculated. 

Adjusted net efficiency

Measures overall performance using:

• Offensive efficiency (points per possession)
• Defensive efficiency (opponent points per possession)
• Strength of opponents
• Game location (home/away/neutral)

Team value index

Results-oriented metric that rewards teams for beating better opponents, and factors in:

• Opponent quality
• Game location
• Win/loss outcome

While NET is the primary ranking system, it does not solely determine the seeds. As of this season, the selection committee also uses Wins Above Bubble, another results-based metric that measures the quality of a team’s resume, including:

• A team’s wins compared with what a typical bubble team would be expected to have against the same schedule.
• It does not account for scoring margin or efficiency.

“For example, if an average bubble team was expected to win 19 games against Team A’s schedule, but Team A won 20, it would have a +1.0 WAB rating.”

Furthermore, the NCAA states that the committee also considers the following criteria when determining seeds:

• Bad losses
• Common opponents
• Competitiveness in losses
• Early vs. late-season performance
• Head-to-head results
• Observable components (eye test)
• Overall record
• Regional rankings
• Significant wins
• Strength of schedule

‘I’ve never thought about that’

UCLA’s players are in lockstep with their coach on the seeding discussion. 

Gabriela Jaquez was blunt after the team’s win over Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals on Saturday. “I’ve never thought about that,” she said. Gianna Kneepkens wasn’t much more expressive. “I don’t think we’ve talked about that one time. We don’t really care,” she said. 

On down the line, the message was the same. 

“We don’t talk about rankings or anything like that. It’s not something you can really control, so there’s no point in worrying about that,” Charlisse Leger-Walker added Saturday. “We’re very focused on what’s right ahead of us, whether that’s a 1-0 practice or a 1-0 game. When Selection Sunday happens and the rankings come out, we’ll deal with that when it comes.”

Ultimately, the No. 1 overall seed doesn’t matter all that much aside from bragging rights. UCLA is going to be a top-two overall seed, and will play the first two rounds at home before almost certainly heading to the Sacramento regional, just a few hours up the road from their campus. 

An easier path certainly helps, but true title contenders don’t worry about their seed or path. 

“We’re a great team. We’ve done all we needed to do,” Rice said Sunday. “The committee will make that decision, but we’re not focused on that.”