Commandment has won four straight races, capped by a victory in the Grade 1 Florida Derby. His best Beyer Speed Figure is 101, which is the second highest in the field. He is the co-second choice on the morning line at 6-1 and has a big shot to win the Kentucky Derby. So why have top jockeys Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat chosen to take other mounts for the Run for the Roses? Back Commandment at the Kentucky Derby using TwinSpires, where new users who click through our links get a supersized $400 sign-up bonus:
6 Commandment (6-1)
- Trainer: Brad Cox
- Jockey: Luis Saez
- Last race: First in the Florida Derby by a nose
- Career record: 5 starts: 4 wins
- Career earnings: $1,017,339
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure: 101 (Fountain of Youth Stakes)
- Sire: Into Mischief
Below, we’ll dig further into Commandment as part of our series profiling all the horses competing in the 152nd Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2. We’ll look back into his past performances, what questions need to be answered Saturday and analyze how the post draw affects his chances.
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What to know about Commandment
The legend of Commandment was born on Nov. 1 of last year. In a maiden race at Churchill Downs, this bay son of Into Mischief found himself looking through a narrow gap between two horses that was barely more than a rumor. Nonetheless, he put his nose between those two rivals and, like Derrick Henry splitting two hopeless defensive backs, bullied his way through. The result? A 5¼-length win in a race he had no business winning.
Over his next three starts, all wins, he again split horses in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, went inside horses in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and chased down The Puma and Chief Wallabee from last despite slow fractions in the Florida Derby.
The ability to run behind, inside and between horses often determines a Kentucky Derby winner, and Commandment certainly has it. He doesn’t just run from every conceivable position; he runs fast as well. He has two Beyer Speed Figures in the 100s. No other horse in the field has more than one.
And yet neither of his previous two jockeys has decided to stick around and ride him. Ortiz Jr., who has been aboard in three of five starts, elected to ride Renegade for trainer Todd Pletcher before Commandment even won the Fountain of Youth Stakes. And Prat, who rode Commandment in the Florida Derby in place of Ortiz, committed to ride Emerging Market for trainer Chad Brown. Such jockey defections are usually a bad sign but Ortiz and Prat ride regularly for Pletcher and Brown respectively, so perhaps handicappers shouldn’t read too much into those decisions.
Jockey Luis Saez, who crossed the finish line first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby aboard Maximum Security before being disqualified for interference, is a solid replacement. He is coming off a terrific meet at Keeneland in which he finished third in the jockey standings with 15 wins in 97 starts, behind Ortiz (22) and Prat (17) ironically.
Commandment is fast, tested against the best, versatile, game (he has won his last two starts by a neck and a nose) and consistent. And there’s a chance that he will leave the starting gate as the post-time favorite at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET. Use our jumbo-sized 1/ST BET offer by clicking here to get a $500 sign-up bonus:
Post draw analysis
Since he does his best work from off the pace, Commandment always will be at the mercy of a fair pace and a clean trip. He could always fall victim to a loose-on-the-lead winner, traffic issues and ground loss. But his post draw couldn’t have been better in post No. 6. He is a proven runner inside horses and if things break the right way, he could have an opportunity to pass horses along the rail much like Rich Strike did in taking the roses in 2022.
