Since a band of rebels led by Fidel Castro pushed out Cuba’s dictator in 1959, the island’s government has largely been defined by its defiance of its far larger neighbor to the north — and its ability to survive the intense pressure that friction has provoked.
But the current U.S. campaign, led by an effective oil blockade, is the most intense in a half-century. And it is pushing the Cuban government to the brink.
Tourism has cratered. The energy grid collapsed three times over nine days this month. And other than a single Russian oil tanker in March, Cuba’s allies have not been willing to test President Trump’s order that no fuel be delivered to the island.
Yet, more than six months later, the government is still intact, and Cubans are finding ways to get by.
This month we visited Cuba on an extremely rare journalism visa granted to The New York Times. In Havana, I interviewed Cuba’s deputy foreign minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, one of the Communist government’s interlocutors with the United States.
He said Cuba’s main strategy to escape the Trump administration’s ire was to enact a series of economic policy changes, including opening the country to foreign investment. Mr. Trump could even invest himself, Mr. Fernández de Cossío said.
White House and State Department spokespeople called Cuba a national security threat and accused it of harboring terrorists, which Cuba denies. They blamed Cuba for the energy crisis, saying it sold off fuel to enrich elites and failed to maintain its electric grid. And they said Cuba’s political and economic system are broken and must change, though U.S. officials have not clarified what would be required to lift the blockade.
The two sides acknowledge that their talks have made little progress. Many people, especially Cubans, are now watching closely for signs of what is next.
This interview was edited for clarity.
The Trump administration seems to be demanding changes to Cuba’s political system. Your government has said that is not on the table. What is?
I can be sure that the government of the United States would not negotiate its Constitution and political system with another government. So there should be no surprise that Cuba is not ready to discuss its internal political issues with the United States.
So what is the Cuban strategy then?
We introduced some changes in our economy a few weeks back. We believe they can allow us to cope.
Yet, if the United States is trying to provoke humanitarian difficulties in Cuba, unfortunately it has the power to. There’s nothing Cuba can do.
And if they lead to military action against Cuba, we will suffer thousands of deaths. Probably there will be a blood bath in Cuba. There will also be deaths of young Americans.
But after all this damage is caused, what is the goal gained by the United States? That is where we believe there should be some common sense within the American people.
Russia delivered a single tanker of fuel in March, but no other country has challenged Trump’s threats to not ship fuel to Cuba. Where are your allies?
The coercive arm of the United States has proved to be very successful. To tell a European, a Latin American, an Asian company that you cannot export your national resources to Cuba, it’s a new world order.
Do you expect more oil coming from Russia, Mexico or Brazil?
We do expect some oil to come from some part of the world. We believe that the capacity of the United States to isolate Cuba and deprive countries of their right to export their own products cannot be forever.
Trump has discussed “taking Cuba.” Is Cuba preparing militarily?
It’s absurd. What excuse can there be to carry out a military action that will cause death and destruction against a peaceful country?
Now, regardless of how irrational it is, we would be naïve if we did not prepare ourselves, if we did not update our military strategy, which is based on the involvement of the population as a whole. We understand the asymmetric reality in terms of technology and firepower, but our people will defend our country. We have weekly preparations for that.
There have been reports that an Emirati developer is building a luxury resort on a Cuban island and wants to pitch it to the Trump Organization as Trump Island. Is the Cuban government entertaining a Trump Organization project on Cuban soil?
We’re not entertaining specifically, I would say, anything like that. But we are trying to attract foreign investment from any country. And that does not exclude the United States.
Does it exclude President Trump?
If he wants to do it peacefully, we see no specific reason to exclude.
Have you heard of this Trump Island proposal on this part of Cuba?
I saw the news. There are many developments there already in place and some projected, and we’ve presented this to business people in several parts of the world. If somebody comes and says they have connections with important business people in the United States, we’re ready to engage. If it’s with the Trump administration, in principle, there’s no reason for us to say no.
What prohibits Donald Trump from investing in Cuba are U.S. laws. We don’t exclude him or his organization from doing business in Cuba, if it does it respecting Cuban laws.
