The Duke Blue Devils look to finish off their case for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament as they take on the Virginia Cavaliers in the 2026 ACC Tournament championship game. Duke is the top seed in the ACC bracket, while Virginia is the No. 2. These teams met one other time this season as Duke dominated on its home court in a 77-51 victory on Jan. 28, easily covering as a 10-point favorite in that game. Duke, however, will be without Caleb Foster (foot) and Patrick Ngongba II (foot) — two of the team’s top-four leading scorers — in this matchup.
Tipoff from Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C., is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Duke is a 7.5-point favorite in the latest Virginia vs. Duke odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 140.5. Before making any Duke vs. Virginia picks, check out the men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has simulated Duke vs. UVA 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for Duke vs. UVA:
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Duke vs. Virginia spread: |
Duke -7.5 |
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Duke vs. Virginia over/under: |
140.5 points |
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Duke vs. Virginia money line: |
Duke -329, Virginia +262 |
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Duke vs. Virginia picks: |
See picks at SportsLine |
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Duke vs. Virginia streaming: |
Fubo (Try for free) |
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Top Duke vs. Virginia predictions
SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (140.5 points). Virginia, who ranks 66th nationally in scoring offense (81 ppg), comes into this matchup off back-to-back 80-plus point performances in the ACC Tournament. The Cavaliers have seen their last three games clear the total. Duke, meanwhile, ranks 47th nationally with 82.5 points per game
The model is calling for three UVA players to score in double figures, while Cameron Boozer has a big offensive night for Duke, scoring 27 points in the simulations. The model projects 149 combined points as the Over hits 79% of the time.
How to make Virginia vs. Duke picks
The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Duke vs. Virginia, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.
