Voters in Maine will weigh in on one of the most consequential and high-profile Senate races in the country on Tuesday, when they are expected to cement a matchup between Senator Susan Collins, a vulnerable Republican, and Graham Platner, a scandal-plagued Democrat hoping to oust her.
Their likely face-off in November could determine control of the Senate, and political observers will be watching this week’s result closely to see if Mr. Platner’s many controversies have dampened voter enthusiasm for his populist campaign pitch.
Tuesday will also feature primary elections in South Carolina, Nevada and North Dakota.
Here’s what to know about the races.
How will Platner perform?
In an election cycle in which Democrats are eager for outside voices, Mr. Platner, a military veteran who operates a small oyster farm, seemed to offer an appealing, insurgent message. He held such a significant lead over Gov. Janet Mills, the pick of his party’s establishment wing, that she bowed out of the Democratic primary months ago.
But Mr. Platner has been dogged since the beginning of his campaign by controversies, including over a tattoo on his chest recognized as a Nazi symbol, and old social media posts with offensive comments about women and rape. (He has apologized for past comments and said he was unaware that the tattoo was a Nazi symbol, which he has covered.) The latest scandal broke last week, when The New York Times reported that several former girlfriends said that he had engaged in unsettling and at times physically threatening behavior.
Mr. Platner has vowed to remain in the race, and many Democrats are standing by him, but Republicans see vulnerability. Ms. Mills has reminded voters in recent days that she is still on the Democratic primary ballot.
Mr. Platner is still expected to easily win the primary, but any sizable support for Ms. Mills or a disparity in votes cast between Mr. Platner’s race and the Democratic primary for governor will be watched closely as a potential warning sign for his chances in November.
Who will emerge in key governor’s races?
Elsewhere in Maine, the race to replace Ms. Mills, who cannot run again because of term limits, has been crowded and competitive ahead of what is expected to be a tough general election.
On the Democratic side, the two leading candidates appear to be Troy Jackson, a logger and state senator endorsed by Mr. Platner, and Dr. Nirav Shah, who led Maine’s coronavirus pandemic response. On the Republican side, Bobby Charles, who worked in the Reagan White House and the second Bush administration, has an edge over a field that includes a Bush relative: Jonathan Bush, a cousin of President George W. Bush and nephew of President George H.W. Bush.
Jonathan Bush, a tech entrepreneur, grew up in Manhattan before moving to Maine. He is running as an outsider despite his family’s deep ties to the state, which is home to the Bush family estate.
In South Carolina, Gov. Henry McMaster also can’t run again because of term limits, and the Republican field vying to replace him in a safely red state is crowded. The race has shaped up to be yet another test of the strength of an endorsement from President Trump, who had a rare loss in Iowa last week when the candidate he backed in the Republican primary for governor fell short.
Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette of South Carolina has also received Mr. Trump’s support. She faces Rom Reddy, a wealthy former Exxon executive; Alan Wilson, the state’s attorney general; Representative Nancy Mace, a high-profile member of Congress; and Representative Ralph Norman, a champion of the far right. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will advance to a runoff on June 23.
In Nevada, the field is essentially set for what is likely to be one of closest governor races in the country this fall. Voters are expected to finalize a matchup between Gov. Joe Lombardo, a relatively moderate Republican battling a stubbornly stagnant economy, and Aaron Ford, a Democrat who is the state’s attorney general. Mr. Ford faces Alexis Hill, a county commissioner, in the Democratic primary, but he is expected to easily prevail.
Can Republicans cut into Democratic turf in House races?
Republicans are mostly playing defense in their effort to maintain control of the House of Representatives. But they see a likely pickup opportunity in Maine’s Second Congressional District, a region that went for Mr. Trump in 2024 and that has been represented by Jared Golden, a moderate Democrat and military veteran, who announced last year that he would not seek re-election.
Former Gov. Paul LePage, a Republican running unopposed in the primary, is the front-runner in November. Four Democrats are vying to face him: Matt Dunlap, the state auditor; Joe Baldacci, a state senator; Jordan Wood, a former congressional staff member; and Paige Loud, a social worker.
Republicans have more of an uphill battle in Nevada, where all three of the state’s Democratic representatives in the Las Vegas area won re-election in 2024, even as Nevada voted for Mr. Trump. But they see the most opportunity in the state’s Third District, where Representative Susie Lee is running for re-election. Marty O’Donnell, a video game music composer who has run for Congress before, has Mr. Trump’s endorsement in the Republican primary race to challenge her.
In the state’s relatively rural and safely Republican northern district, Representative Mark Amodei is retiring, setting up a competitive G.O.P. race to replace him. The two front-runners are James Settelmeyer, a former state senator, and David Flippo, a military veteran and small business owner backed by Mr. Trump.
Can Lindsey Graham avoid a runoff?
Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a prominent Republican, has Mr. Trump’s endorsement in his primary contest. But the two men have had a rocky relationship over the years.
A decade ago, Mr. Graham was one of Mr. Trump’s toughest critics, calling him a “demagogue” and a “race-baiting xenophobic religious bigot.” Mr. Trump, in turn, referred to Mr. Graham as “a disgrace” and “one of the world’s dumbest human beings.” Like many Republicans, Mr. Graham has come around on the president since then.
Now, Mr. Graham is hoping to avoid the fate of Senators John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy, who both lost their Republican primary races this year after Mr. Trump backed their challengers and said they had been insufficiently loyal. Though Mr. Graham has the president’s support, his popularity is mixed among the Republican base and he has occasionally even received boos when introduced at Trump events. Being forced into a runoff — most likely against Mark Lynch, a businessman — would be an embarrassment for Mr. Graham, a four-term senator.
