Europe rules out joining Trump’s Hormuz armada

Good morning. News to start: Spain has defended the EU’s landmark carbon trading system, with the country’s energy minister warning it would be “irresponsible and a big error” to dismantle the ETS in the name of alleviating the energy price shock from the war in the Middle East.

Today, I report on the European rejection of US President Donald Trump’s demand for countries to join that conflict, and our energy correspondent reveals research into the significant cost increase for combustion engine cars from the ongoing Iran conflict.

No, non, nein

The EU has thrown Trump’s demand to help clean up the consequences of his war in the Middle East back in his face, in the bloc’s most forthright opposition to the White House since the height of the Greenland crisis.

Context: Trump launched a war against Iran on February 28. Tehran’s retaliation included blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas transited. On Sunday, Trump demanded European allies join his naval mission to reopen the strait by force, or face “a very bad future” for Nato.

At a meeting of EU foreign ministers yesterday, there was an overwhelming response: no.

“This is not Europe’s war,” EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas said after the meeting. “Nobody wants to go actively in this war. And of course, everybody is concerned what will be the outcome.”

That followed a raft of rejections from the bloc’s foreign ministers, calling out “blackmail”, reminding Trump that Nato was “defensive, not interventionist” or mocking the idea that the US navy wasn’t able to get the job done by itself.

“The Americans chose this path, together with the Israelis,” German defence minister Boris Pistorius told reporters. “We did not start this.”

But for all the collective nose-thumbing at Washington’s predicament, the closed strait and resultant high energy prices present a clear and present danger to EU governments, who are yet to come up with a coherent counterproposal to Trump’s pitch of a multinational armada to police the waters.

Kallas came out of yesterday’s meeting admitting that “for the time being, there was no appetite” from the 27 ministers to change the mandate of the EU’s existing naval protection mission in the Red Sea, called Aspides, to allow it to protect shipping around Hormuz.

That said, the head of the International Maritime Organization told the FT that naval escorts will not “100 per cent guarantee” the safety of the strait, and that military assistance was “not a long-term or sustainable solution”.

Yet Trump himself maintained confidence yesterday that some allies could still answer the call — including France.

When asked if French President Emmanuel Macron was prepared to take part, Trump said he was hopeful.

“Yeah, I have spoken to him. He’s been, on a scale of zero to 10, I’d say he’s been an eight. Not perfect,” he said. “But it’s France: We don’t expect perfect.”

Chart du jour: Derailed

An ambitious high-speed rail project linking Poland and the Baltics will be delayed by about a decade, as capitals prioritise fixing existing lines amid fears of a Russian attack.

Expensive ride

As environment ministers take stock of the European Commission’s rollback of its combustion engine ban today, new analysis highlights the price shock drivers face if they continue driving on petrol while the Middle East crisis continues, writes Ian Johnston.

Context: In December, the Commission backtracked on its Green Deal ambitions to phase out combustion engines in 2035 by instead allowing carmakers to reach a 90 per cent limit. Ministers will dissect the new proposals at today’s environment council in Brussels.

Electric vehicles have yet to seduce Europeans en masse but with petrol prices surging, they could look more attractive.

New analysis by Transport & Environment, a lobby group, shows that if energy prices remain elevated because of the Iran conflict, this could have a five times higher impact for drivers of petrol cars than EVs. Drivers would pay €3.85 more per 100km, compared with a €0.7 more per 100km for electric cars.  

The calculations are based on petrol prices remaining as high as they did in the three years after the 2022 energy crisis, with T&E assuming an average oil price of €70 per barrel over three years.

Some car executives have said that consumers are not buying as many electric cars as they expected, as some people are put off by the higher cost of the vehicles. This has prompted some manufacturers to push for more time to decarbonise their fleets.

T&E’s analysis, however, shows that maintaining the Green Deal targets on combustion engines and incorporating more ambitious targets on corporate fleet electrification would save €24bn in oil imports, compared with the Commission’s December proposal.

What to watch today

1. EU environment ministers meet in Brussels.

2. EU general affairs ministers also meet.

3. German foreign minister Johann Wadephul hosts his Greek counterpart Giorgos Gerapetritis in Berlin.

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