Climate change is pushing more games beyond safe limits for players and fans.
Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images
- A new study has found that a quarter of 2026 World Cup matches face dangerous heat risks.
- Researchers found that the rising likelihood of these dangerous conditions is directly linked to human-caused global warming.
- Dr Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London, says the World Cup Final itself faces a “non-insignificant risk” of being played in “cancellation-level” heat.
- For more climate change news and analysis, visit News24 Climate Future.
Climate change is projected to increase dangerous heat conditions at the FIFA World Cup 2026, with more matches expected to be played in conditions considered unsafe for players and fans alike.
Even more pointedly, the World Cup final faces a “non-insignificant risk of being played in ‘cancellation-level’ heat.”
This is according to a group of scientists at World Weather Attribution, an international scientific collaboration that analyses and communicates the possible influence of climate change on extreme weather events. The collaboration includes researchers from Imperial College London, the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), and partner institutions worldwide.
The FIFA World Cup 2026 is set to run from 11 June to 19 July 2026 across three host countries: the US, Canada, and Mexico, with matches held in 16 cities.
Climate change at the World Cup
World Weather Attribution
Researchers analysed the risk using the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), a measure that combines heat and humidity to assess the risk to the human body during physical activity.
According to the scientific report, 26 matches – nearly a quarter of all matches – are expected to be played in conditions exceeding 26°C WBGT, a level at which heat strain becomes a risk, compared to 21 matches at the 1994 World Cup in the US.
Of those, nine matches will be held in stadiums without cooling, up from six in 1994.
Five matches are expected to exceed WBGT of 28°C or higher, considered unsafe for play, compared with three in 1994.
Rising heat risk
World Weather Attribution
Guidance from the global players’ union FIFPRO states that matches should include cooling breaks at 26°C WBGT and be postponed at 28°C WBGT. However, current FIFA regulations only consider postponement at 32°C.
“We know high temperatures influence players’ performance and that it can affect their health negatively. In some cases, excessive heat can lead to heatstroke, so this is an area where FIFPRO logically remains proactive and progressive,” Dr Vincent Gouttebarge, FIFPRO’s Medical Director, said in a statement at the end of last year.
More recently, Gouttebarge said: “The calculations to estimate the likelihood of 2026 FIFA World Cup games being played in high WBGT conditions are in line with FIFPRO’s calculations published in 2023. These estimations justify the need for – and implementation of – a series of mitigation strategies with a view to better protecting players’ health and performance when they are exposed to hot conditions.”
Dramatic climate shift in 32 years
Strikingly, the researchers found that the rising likelihood of these dangerous conditions is directly linked to human-induced global warming.
“The observed increases in the likelihood of extreme WBGT conditions can thus be confidently attributed to anthropogenic climate change,” the authors of the scientific report write in one section.
Dr Joyce Kimutai, Research Associate in Extreme Weather and Climate Change, Imperial College London, said: “Around half of human-caused climate change has occurred since the World Cup was last hosted in North America in 1994.
As a result, the climate that the tournament is being played in today has fundamentally shifted in just 32 years.
“While organisers have attempted to reduce the risk by scheduling some games in high-risk, uncooled locations like Miami and Kansas City later in the day, there’s a very real risk that we’ll be faced with games taking place in conditions that are unsafe for players and fans.”
Dr Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London, added: “Our research shows that climate change is having a real and measurable impact on the viability of holding World Cups during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The 1994 World Cup may not feel particularly distant to many adults today, yet half of human-induced climate change has happened since then.
“That the World Cup Final itself – one of the biggest sporting occasions on the planet – faces a non-insignificant risk of being played in ‘cancellation-level’ heat should be a wake-up call for FIFA and fans, highlighting the urgent need to realise that there is no aspect of society not affected by climate change.”
FIFA, for its part, said in a media statement in December that players at the tournament “will benefit from three-minute hydration breaks in each half of games as FIFA prioritises player welfare throughout next summer’s tournament.
“In a streamlined and simplified version of the breaks used at some previous tournaments, including the FIFA Club World Cup 2025, the referee will stop the game 22 minutes into each half to allow players to rehydrate. There will be no weather or temperature conditions in place, with the breaks being called by the referee in all games, to ensure equal conditions for all teams, in all matches.”
