Remember when President Trump promised his supporters that “there will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER?” The deal he just made does not read like a surrender document. It leaves the Islamic republic not just intact but feeling empowered.
The war has cost the United States billions of dollars, killed thousands and sent gas prices surging. It has angered American voters. It has led to divisions within Trump’s usually hyper-loyal MAGA camp. And it has given plenty of fodder to Democrats ahead of midterm elections in November.
How much will the Iran deal hurt Trump?
It seemed odd that when the Iran deal was announced with some fanfare on President Trump’s birthday, none of the details were released.
Now we can guess why: The text is basically a list of concessions to Iran with little — if anything — concrete to show for it on the U.S. side, for now.
There’s no mention of regime change, no limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles or its support for proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program are supposed to be worked out in future negotiations.
Instead, there are lots of promises of money. Iran gets to resume oil exports immediately. If the talks go well, the U.S. will also lift sanctions, unfreeze assets worth tens of billions of dollars and help create a $300 billion fund for reconstruction and development. The deal sets up a 60-day cease-fire for more negotiations, and fighting could flare up again.
Over the past four months, the Iran war has become a major political headache for Trump at home. Voters didn’t like it; his approval ratings are at record lows. Many in his own MAGA camp didn’t like it, either.
But the potential end of the war comes with its own headaches. Republicans who did support the war are now balking at the agreement; an unpopular war is ending with what, for many, will be an unpopular deal.
All of this would seemingly point to a crisis in the Trump camp and a potential defeat in the midterm elections in November, the next big political test. But I spoke to my colleague Robert Draper, who covers Republican politics, and he said it might not actually damage him all that much.
“There is no universe in which the whole Iran misadventure can be spun as a net positive for this administration and for the Republican Party writ large,” Robert said. “Not in 2026, not in 2028. It’s not going to help at all. Just how much it hurts is harder to tell.”
A MAGA split?
The Iran war ran counter to two of Trump’s core campaign promises: avoiding foreign entanglements and lowering the cost of living. U.S. gas prices dipped after the deal was announced but remain well above their prewar level. Inflation is expected to linger.
It has been a tricky issue for Republicans to navigate. A number of hard-core MAGA evangelists, like former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, opposed what she called a “totally unnecessary” war from the start.
Some, including the right-wing media personalities Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson, went so far as to accuse Trump of doing Israel’s bidding and demand an end to the close U.S.-Israeli alliance.
And several Republicans who stayed on-side and supported the war now take issue with the deal to end it. “Giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea,” said Senator Ted Cruz, one of the party’s most outspoken hawks.
The tension inside the party is real, Robert told me, and comes on top of other divisive issues, like the Epstein files. But for now at least, the noisiest critics are mostly figures inside the MAGA camp who have already largely been sidelined — or have announced their retirements.
“The reality is that the MAGA coalition is largely still intact, with some very glaring and loud exceptions,” Robert said. “That’s because there’s such an abiding commitment to the personality and the persona of Trump.”
In other words, there are cracks, but not a crisis. When the midterm elections come, they, too, are likely to be painful for Republicans. But they might also be less disastrous than the fallout from the war might suggest.
The Fox News bubble
For one thing, there are still more than four months to go. That’s a long time in politics. If Iran disappears from the news, so might voters’ agitation over it. One question is whether gas prices have enough time to recede to prewar levels; another is whether the war flares up again.
“Not for nothing did Trump do all that he could to end the war months before the election,” Robert said.
As for the deal and the way it favors Iran, many Republican voters might never hear about that. Right-wing news outlets like Fox News are not zooming in on anything that makes the Trump administration look bad, Robert said. Viewers will hear that the fighting has stopped, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and gas prices are likely to decline — but not how Iran stands to benefit.
Another reason the negative impact for Republicans might be limited? There aren’t actually all that many seats up for grabs. The House of Representatives has 435 seats, but because many states have redrawn their Congressional districts in partisan ways, only about 20 are competitive. That could still be enough to flip the House — but it caps the potential impact.
There could still be some surprises. But for now, it all adds up to what Robert called “a sobering lesson in the realities of American politics.”
“When you look at the fallout from the war, you might think, How can Trump not be thrashed by the voters as a result of this?” he said. “And part of the answer is, well, structurally, he’s got a lot of advantages.”
More on the war:
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BEFORE YOU GO …
We had a Bring Your Kids to Work Day at the London office this week. One of my daughters and my son went on a scavenger hunt around the newsroom. Made a podcast interviewing my boss. Danced to K-pop. Ate way too much pizza.
Now they’re convinced that my job is all fun and games!
(My husband once told me about a friend’s son who visited his very fun YouTube office. The boy said: “Dad, when you die, can I have your job?”)
It’s great to show your kids where you work. It’s also important. It is, after all, the thing that competes with them for your time and attention.
Many years ago, when my oldest was a toddler and cried every time I traveled for work, I asked a charismatic French chief executive with three children, “How do you do it?”
“I tell my kids I love my work,” she said. Her reasoning was simple. If you tell kids that you wish you could stay with them, they will think “well, why don’t you, then?” It’s confusing. But if work is important to you and makes you happy — they might just accept it.
