It’s finally official: Fernando Mendoza has been taken first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The former Indiana Hoosier completed 72% of his passes last season for 3,535 yards and 41 touchdowns with just six interceptions, adding another 276 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns on 90 carries, all while leading the team to an undefeated season and a national championship.
Mendoza’s got polished mechanics, good arm power, quality toughness, underrated mobility, and of course, surgical accuracy … when he’s not pressured. When he did get pressured, his accuracy and passing efficiency dipped, not to the point where he was a bad thrower, just to the point where he was more inconsistent.
A lot of quarterbacks are the same way, including Kirk Cousins. In fact, Mendoza is a lot like Cousins in terms of stature, delivery, etc. So it was no surprise to see Cousins signed in early April by the Raiders to a one-year, $20 million contract with the idea that he’ll be the team’s Week 1 starter — and stay there until the Raiders feel Mendoza is ready to play. That might come in Week 8, it might come sooner, it might come in 2027.
Obviously, the non-guaranteed role for Mendoza disqualifies him from being picked in any one-QB redraft league this fall. That would change if he catches fire in August and outplays Cousins in camp, though even then, he might not be in high demand.
Other formats — two-QB leagues and all Dynasty/keeper leagues — will have a very different take on Mendoza.
Superflex/two-QB redraft formats: Late round pick as a potential starter for the second half of the season. I bet a lot of folks will draft Mendoza and Cousins with back-to-back picks around the Round 6/7 turn.
Keeper formats: He’ll be at least mildly appealing in long-term leagues because he should be the Raiders starter for a long time. That will put him in the late rounds.
Dynasty rookie-only drafts: In both one-QB and Superflex/two-QB, it’s manager-dependent: Mendoza will get taken by the first manager who is really desperate for a quarterback. I suspect Mendoza will be a borderline Round 1 pick in one-QB leagues and a top-three pick in Superflex/two-QB.
The impact on other Raiders
First off, it’s vital for the Raiders to get their offensive line as strong as possible. It was a beat-up O-line that sabotaged a lot of their receivers’ numbers last year because then-QB Geno Smith was always under siege. Only twice all season did a Raiders receiver score more than 15 PPR points in a game; Bowers had at least that many three times (six with 14-plus). Fortunately, the Raiders unloaded a pallet of cash in Tyler Linderbaum’s driveway to get him to play center, Spencer Buford was added from the 49ers, and a number of other starters who got hurt last year are healthy now. This helps.
Brock Bowers will be a second-round pick in 2026 Fantasy leagues because of the upside he offers at a position without a lot of superstars. Unless the Raiders make a heavy splash at wide receiver post-draft, it’s safe to assume he’ll be their target leader. It also helps that Mendoza was attracted to any of his receivers when they were in a one-on-one matchup last year, and Klint Kubiak should scheme Bowers into plenty of those. Cousins made magic with Kyle Pitts as recently as the second half of last season, so even when he starts, it should be good news for Bowers. As long as the third-year tight end stays healthy, he should dominate.
The offensive line matters more for Ashton Jeanty than the quarterback situation. A painful reminder: Jeanty had zero or negative runs on 26.7% of his carries and averaged 0.6 yards before contact (both either last or second-to-last among qualifiers), two stats that tell the story about just how bad his O-line was. He still averaged 14.4 PPR points per game because of a good role in the passing offense. That could change: Mendoza threw to his running backs on 6.9% of his dropbacks last year at Indiana, and 9.5% over the course of his college career. Under Kubiak in Seattle last year, Sam Darnold threw to his running backs on 13.5% of his dropbacks. That’s bad, but keep in mind that prior quarterbacks with Kubiak calling plays had much higher rates — Derek Carr was at 26.3% in 2024, and Cousins was at 19.4% in 2021, each of whom had a great pass-catching running back and O-line issues that necessitated getting the ball out quickly. If the O-line is bad, Jeanty should fall into more targets; if it’s not, then Jeanty’s targets could decrease, but his rushing efficiency would rebound. Sounds like a win-win either way. Jeanty remains a top-10 Fantasy running back worth an early Round 2 pick in PPR leagues and a Round 1 pick in RB-friendly half- and non-PPR leagues.
At the time of this writing, the Raiders wide receiver room is headlined by ex-Vikings wideout Jalen Nailor, third-year receiver Tre Tucker, and second-year wideouts Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton Jr. I’m genuinely unsure whether any of these guys will matter for Fantasy in 2026, but the natural instinct managers will have is to draft Nailor, the newcomer with a late-round pick, and hope for volume. Nailor’s role in Minnesota wasn’t big — slot-leaning receiver with some long routes. He flashed a quick burst off the snap that helped him get a step on his coverage, and he’s adept at running plenty of the timing routes that are friendly for quarterbacks like hitches, outs, and crossers with some go-routes mixed in. Nailor figures to be the only Raiders receiver who would benefit from the upgraded accuracy that Mendoza will eventually deliver (he can be solid with Cousins, too). I bet he ends up as a Draft Day bargain while the rest of the Raiders receivers fall off of Fantasy benches.
