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David Purdum
Multiple Authors
Betting interest on the World Cup exploded during the first week of the tournament, fueled by highlight performances from the game’s biggest stars, an impressive opening win by the U.S. that dinged sportsbooks and a flurry of draws that helped the hard-luck bookmakers recover quickly.
Sportsbooks and prediction markets reported record action, as Hard Rock Bet said the betting on the World Cup is on pace to eclipse the Super Bowl and March Madness combined. Saturday, which featured Game 5 of the NBA Finals and three World Cup matches, marked the first time prediction market Kalshi surpassed $1 billion in volume in a single day, according to DeFi Rate, a site that monitors prediction markets. Kalshi reached the $1 billion milestone again Sunday.
DraftKings also touted increased action on its prediction market over the past week.
“A lot of days, we’re kind of doubling what we’ve done in the past,” Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ sportsbook director, told ESPN, pointing to the company’s ability to offer trading in California, Texas and Florida as the reason for the surge.
The U.S.’s 4-1 win over Paraguay on Friday, unsurprisingly, was the most-heavily bet match of the first week. BetMGM said the US opener attracted 1.5 times more betting than the next-closest match (Brazil-Morocco). Hard Rock Bet said the match drew more individual bets than any soccer match in company history and was a boon for bettors, with more than 90% of the money wagered on the match backing the Americans at sportsbooks.
Since Friday, the U.S. has attracted more bets to win the World Cup than any other team at BetMGM.
The books bounced back in a big way Monday, with all four games on the day ending in draws — including Cape Verde’s stunning 0-0 result against heavily-favored Spain.
“This was a significant result for the trading floor, with Spain heavily backed by bettors across both straight bets and parlays,” said Mark Bickerdike, head of soccer for Caesars Sportsbook.
Caesars Sportsbook reported that a bettor in Kentucky won $11,646 on a $20 four-leg parlay that had all four matches ending in draws Monday. Even so, the sportsbooks had a big day, with bettors, as usual, shying away from betting matches to end in draws.
The betting public backed three superstars to score Tuesday and were rewarded with Lionel Messi, Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé each finding the net. Messi recorded a hat trick, after being at +1750 to record a hat trick at Caesars Sportsbook. Haaland and Mbappé, who were each odds-on favorites to score, recorded braces Tuesday.
Mbappé scored his second goal in stoppage time of France’s 3-1 win over Senegal. The late clinching goal completed a lucrative parlay for one Hard Rock Bet customer. According to the sportsbook, a bettor in Florida placed a $25,000 three-leg parlay that paid $522,112.50. The final leg was France to win by two or more goals.
France remains the favorite to win the World Cup, listed around 4-1.
On Thursday, the U.S. was a -170 favorite to beat Australia in Friday’s match at DraftKings. Australia was a +340 underdog. U.S. star Christian Pulisic had not been a full participant in training this week, recovering from being kicked in the back of the leg in the Paraguay match.
Dom DeBonis, who oversees soccer odds for Circa Sports in Las Vegas, said he anticipates Pulisic to be available in some capacity for Friday’s match. “I’m not really overreacting, especially since I won’t struggle to write U.S. money,” DeBonis told ESPN.
On Wednesday, BetMGM reported that 92% of the money that had been bet on the U.S.-Australia game was on the Americans.
ESPN’s Doug Greenberg contributed to this story.
