Flawed France still have edge over rivals before Six Nations finale

In the lead-up to the Six Nations England were touted by some as Grand Slam winners in waiting, as well as serious contenders for the World Rugby No 1 ranking.

At that stage, it seemed likely that the highly anticipated meeting between the Springboks and England on 4 July would double as a showdown between the Six Nations and Rugby Championship champions – as well as the ideal start to the inaugural Nations Championship.

Fast forward to the present, where the actual Six Nations results have made a mockery of most pre-tournament predictions, and have altered the narrative around the north’s challenge for the No 1 ranking.

While joint favourites France may yet win the title, their dreams of a Grand Slam went up in smoke last week, after they lost 50-40 to Scotland in Edinburgh.

Few would have seen that result coming, given France’s complete dominance of Ireland, Wales and Italy in the preceding rounds. On the day, France’s formidable attack was contained by a determined Scotland defence in the first half, while the Les Bleus’ defence leaked seven tries over the course of the contest.

For all the pre-tournament hype, England have delivered one of their worst campaigns in recent memory, and are in danger of finishing this year’s competition in the bottom half of the table.

Steve Borthwick’s charges have already made history for all the wrong reasons. Shortly after losing 31-20 to Scotland in Edinburgh, England suffered a record 42-21 defeat to Ireland in London, before sustaining their first loss to Italy, in Rome.

As a result, England have slipped down the World Rugby rankings to sixth place. Local media have highlighted the team’s myriad issues in recent weeks, with the leadership as well as the discipline and defence coming in for the harshest criticism.

The official word from the Rugby Football Union is that Borthwick will have the coming match against France as well as the first three Nations Championship matches against the Boks, Fiji and Argentina to turn things around.

If England fail to win the bulk of those fixtures or show a marked improvement in the problem areas, Borthwick may be shown the door.

In that event, the Rugby Football Union will be forced to appoint a new coach a year out from the 2027 World Cup. Borthwick himself was hired nine months before the 2023 global tournament, after the RFU fired Eddie Jones.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for England ahead of the final clash of the Six Nations, and in the lead-up to the three Nations Championship matches in July.

In terms of the title race, France, Ireland and Scotland remain in the running for the Six Nations crown, although the destiny of the Celtic teams is in English hands.

Why France have the advantage

Scotland’s bonus-point win against France last Saturday boosted their overall log tally to 16 points.

Thanks to a late flurry by France, Les Bleus also finished the round with 16 log points, and retained their lead at the top of the table by virtue of their superior points difference (79 to Scotland’s 21).

Scotland will improve their chances of winning their first title in the Six Nations era if they beat Ireland in Dublin on Saturday afternoon.

It will take something special to clear that first hurdle, when you consider that Ireland have won the past 11 match-ups.

Even if Scotland prevail, they will need England to beat France in the later clash to finish ahead of Les Bleus in the final standings.

France, of course, will have a clear idea of what’s required before kick-off. Whether they need a one-point win or a bonus-point victory, the odds are in their favour, thanks to home advantage and the fact that England are struggling for form.

Ireland will move up to 18 points if they claim yet another win against Scotland. If England beat France and stop Les Bleus from banking two losing bonus points, then Andy Farrell’s side will win the Six Nations.

That would be a remarkable turnaround, given how France thrashed Ireland 36-14 in the opening round. Apart from the big win in London, Ireland haven’t been at their best in this tournament.

Italy cannot win the Six Nations, but they’ve already beaten Scotland and England, and will complete a clean sweep of the UK teams if they down Wales this Saturday.

Depending on the result of the earlier game in Dublin and the margin of a potential win in Cardiff, the Azzurri could finish the tournament in the top half of the table.

It’s been a historic campaign for Gonzalo Quesada’s charges, and they will be desperate to cap it with another statement performance.

Wales, of course, should be just as desperate, having lost their past 15 Six Nations matches – their previous win coming against Italy in March 2023.

What it means for the Boks

Rassie Erasmus and company will be watching this weekend’s Six Nations battles closely, since the Boks will face each of these teams over the course of the Nations Championship in the coming months.

There’s been a lot of noise around Scotland and Ireland in recent weeks, but the fact is that one of the Celtic teams is going to finish the campaign with an underwhelming record of three wins and two losses. The other is going to extend their winning streak to four matches and – if things go their way in Paris – potentially clinch the Six Nations title.

Erasmus has already spoken about his respect for Italy, who he considers a rising power. The Azzurri should beat Wales to claim their third win of the 2026 campaign, but the Dragons have shown some improvement in recent weeks and might punish the visitors if they fail to replicate the intensity that earned them a shock win against England just last week.

Exactly how good are France, and how bad are England?

The Bok coaches may find an answer when the two teams collide in Paris in the final clash. It may not be the decider that most predicted at the start of the tournament, but it will show how both teams are tracking ahead of the inter-hemisphere matches in the Nations Championship.

England have the template to be a success, as they showed across their recent 12-game winning streak. Whether they have the physical and mental capacity to lift themselves up after three damaging losses remains to be seen.

France appeared to be cruising towards a Six Nations Grand Slam until the loss in Edinburgh. That defeat highlighted a few physical and mental vulnerabilities, and coach Fabien Galthié has copped a lot of flak for some of his selections.

France will have the opportunity to set the record straight this Saturday and to secure their second consecutive title. If they fall short, many will wonder how they let the opportunity slip, and some may go so far as to call it a choke.

That outcome would increase the pressure on Galthié ahead of the Nations Championship, and ahead of the marquee fixture against the Boks in Paris this November. DM