Stay informed with free updates
Simply sign up to the Oil myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.
Global oil reserves plunged at a record pace in April, as the conflict in the Middle East strains supplies and raises the risk of a further sharp jump in prices ahead of the summer travel season.
Stockpiles of crude fell by nearly 200mn barrels, or 6.6mn barrels a day, estimated S&P Global Energy, even as higher prices triggered a collapse in demand of about 5mn b/d, the sharpest ever fall outside of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“This is massive, it is far above the usual range,” said Jim Burkhard, head of crude research at S&P, adding that in a normal month, global stocks fluctuate by between a few hundred thousand and a million barrels. “An inevitable market reckoning is coming,” he said.
In total, the oil market has lost 1bn barrels of crude due to the Iran war so far and while demand is falling fast, it is being “outstripped by the loss of supply”, he added. “Higher crude oil prices are still to come.”
Oil prices have surged since the start of the war in late February as both Iran and the US have restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway, and strikes have damaged energy infrastructure in the region.
However, traders have warned that prices are likely to surge much higher once global stocks dip below critical levels, with some predicting that such a “tipping point” is weeks away.
On Tuesday, the price of benchmark Brent crude settled 4 per cent lower at just under $110 a barrel as the ceasefire between the US and Iran held despite a series of attacks a day earlier.
The S&P data includes all oil stored both by governments and companies, as well as that currently on board tankers at sea. The fall includes oil released by the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve in response to the energy crisis from the war.
While total global oil reserves amount to some 4bn barrels, said Burkhard, a large share of that is tied up in running day-to-day operations, such as keeping refineries running smoothly and pipelines pressurised, limiting the volume that can be readily drawn down.
Global oil stocks are now approaching their lowest level in eight years, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank added that there is only 45 days’ supply of refined products, such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel left worldwide, noting particularly large declines across Asia and Africa.
“The speed of depletion and supply losses in some regions and products is concerning,” Goldman Sachs researchers said.
In northern Europe, stocks of jet fuel fell to a six-year low in April, according to pricing agency Argus, while in the US stocks of gasoline are on course to hit their lowest-ever level in summer, during the key driving season.
Despite average pump prices nearing $4.50 a gallon, US drivers have yet to significantly curb consumption, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank estimates that one in every 11 barrels of oil is used by American motorists and forecasts that US inventories could fall below 200mn barrels by the end of August, the equivalent of roughly one week of demand.
Nevertheless, the US has yet to feel the full effect of the crisis, said Burkhard, noting that its crude stockpiles remain higher than they were at this time last year. The majority of the global fall in stocks has been reported in Asia, he added.
He said a sharp drop in US stockpiles could be the trigger for wider alarm. “The worst of the crisis is ahead of us,” he said.
