After a dark Tuesday around the NHL, the first conference final starts tonight with the Western Conference matchup of division winners as the Colorado Avalanche host the Vegas Golden Knights with an 8 ET puck drop. They are the last two Stanley Cup champions from the West. The Avalanche won the regular-season series 2-0-1.
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Golden Knights vs. Avalanche same-game parlay
- Avalanche Money Line
- Alt Under 7.5
BetRivers same-game parlay: -103
Colorado of course won the Presidents’ Trophy in the regular season with the most points, and the last team to win the Cup after taking the Presidents’ Trophy was the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks. The Avalanche are the third instance of a PT winner reaching the conference finals since the NHL divisional realignment in 2013-14. The other two were the New York Rangers in 2015 and 2024, and they failed to win in this round.
The Avs are +130 Cup favorites, with the Golden Knights at +600. I would imagine Scott Wedgewood starts in the Colorado net in Game 1. He is 7-1 with a 2.21 goals-against average in these playoffs, seven of those starts. After struggling in Game 3 of the last round vs. Minnesota, Wedgewood didn’t start Game 4, with Mackenzie Blackwood playing well in the victory. Blackwood also got the start Game 5 but was pulled after one period after allowing three goals on 13 shots. Wedgewood replaced him and stopped all seven shots. He is 4-0 with a 2.19 GAA in his past five games (four starts) against the Golden Knights, including playoffs.
That was quite the comeback for Colorado last Wednesday to advance, as it trailed 3-0 after one and 3-1 with just under four minutes left in regulation. But Jack Drury cut it to a goal and superstar Nathan MacKinnon, the +180 Conn Smythe Trophy favorite, tied it at 18:37. Defenseman Brett Kulak won it at 3:52 into overtime. That was Kulak’s first goal since Jan. 19 when he was with the Penguins, which also was his only goal of the regular season.
MacKinnon has now scored a goal in 46.2% of all playoff games he has played in (48 of 104). That’s the fourth-highest goal rate in Stanley Cup playoff history (minimum 30 games). MacKinnon is the -110 anytime goal-scoring favorite Wednesday and has a six-game goals streak. He looks to become the ninth player in the expansion era (since 1967-68) to score in seven consecutive playoff games. MacKinnon had a goal and three assists in the regular season vs. Vegas.
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Meanwhile, John Tortorella replaced the fired Bruce Cassidy as head coach with eight games remaining in the season for Vegas. Torts attempts to tie Larry Robinson (1999-00) for fewest regular season games coached (eight) by a Stanley Cup winning head coach. The Knights try to become the eighth team to win the Cup after changing coaches midseason and first since the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues. Tortorella is now 15-4-1 as the head coach, obviously including playoffs.
Star Vegas forward Mitch Marner used to take the brunt of the blame when he played for Toronto and the Maple Leafs flopped in the playoffs like they usually do. The Golden Knights have won two playoff series this year, which was the same number of series wins Marner had in nine appearances with the Maple Leafs.
He has a playoff career-high and NHL-high 18 points and seven goals in these playoffs after seven in 37 previous postseason games. He’s +210 to find the net here. Marner’s average of 1.5 points per game is the fifth-highest by a player in his first postseason with a franchise in Stanley Cup playoff history (minimum 10 games).
There is no doubt that it will remain Carter Hart in the Vegas net, and he is 8-4 with a 2.37 GAA in these playoffs. Hart, who only took over as the No. 1 late in the regular season, was 1-0-1 against the Avalanche during it with a 3.33 GAA and .901 save percentage.
Oftentimes, it comes down to 5-on-5 success in a playoff series. Colorado has been the much better team in this postseason in that regard in outscoring its foes 23-13 in nine games. Vegas has scored 25 goals but allowed 25 in its 12 games.
There is one key forward in question on each side. Colorado’s Arturri Lehkonen missed the final two games of the last round. He has six points and is plus-9 in seven playoff games. Vegas captain Mark Stone missed the final three of Round 2. He has seven points and is minus-1 in nine postseason games.
On the series line, the Avalanche are -260 and Golden Knights +210 and their prices are the same to win the West. The only previous playoff meeting was in the 2021 second round, when Vegas won in six despite trailing 2-0 after two. That remains the Knights’ only series win when trailing 2-0, and it was only the fourth time Colorado blew one. I lean Avalanche in six at +370.
Note that it was a very high-scoring Round 2 overall with 6.5 goals scored per game, the second-highest rate in the past 32 years. We shall see if that carries over. In addition, 45% of games in the second round were comeback wins, the second-highest rate in the past 10 years.
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Colorado hasn’t lost at home in these playoffs and did so only seven times in regulation during the regular season, so it has to be the Game 1 choice. As high-powered as the Avalanche can be, only one of their nine playoff games has had more than seven total goals scored. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
