With help from Eli Okun, Irie Sentner and Makayla Gray
On today’s Playbook Podcast: POLITICO’s Megan Messerly and Eli Stokols discuss President Donald Trump’s visit to Nevada and Arizona — and whether an off-ramp could be in sight for the war in Iran.
Good Friday morning. This is Ali Bianco in the driver’s seat today. Get in touch.
FRIDAY LISTEN: Steve Hilton, the Republican running for California governor who secured Trump’s endorsement this month, spoke with Dasha for this week’s episode of “The Conversation,” where the two discussed the latest drama in the race.
On Eric Swalwell dropping out: “Until Swalwell dropped out, I was saying, ‘Look, on the Republican side, we gotta be careful that we are not boxed out, that in the next month you could see Swalwell moving up, [Tom] Steyer moving up. And so we on the Republican side have to get behind one candidate in order to make sure that Californians have a real choice.’ And so that’s why I always argue that the Trump endorsement was incredibly important for Republicans.”
On the idea that Kamala Harris could jump in: “Oh my goodness. Talk about flogging a dead horse. Um, well, good luck with that. … I’d love to run against her.” Listen and subscribe on Apple and Spotify
In today’s Playbook …
— One of MAGA’s swingiest voting blocs is up for grabs.
— Democrats net another big election overperformance.
— House Republicans again punt the fight to renew spy powers.
President Donald Trump is on a high-stakes swing through the Sun Belt — a set of states that could determine the future of Republicans’ coalition.
Nevada and Arizona are ground zero for this cycle’s swingiest Latino voters, a bloc that proved pivotal to Trump’s 2024 victory and are on the margins of some of the biggest toss-up House races. It’s the Sun Belt where the demographic growth of Latinos is booming. And it’s where the GOP stands to lose as much as it gained nearly two years ago.
Republicans will have to reckon with whether they can “staunch the bleeding” of Latinos now, or potentially lose out after one of the biggest openings with the swing group in decades, Mike Madrid, a GOP strategist who specializes on the Latino vote, told Playbook.
And whichever way they swing — “they will decide the makeup of the Congress,” longtime Republican strategist Stan Barnes said in an interview.
Trump is in both of these states to hype up what should be the party’s marquee midterms win, the “Working Families Tax Cuts” and his “no tax on tips” policy. He spent yesterday in the heart of the service industry in Las Vegas, and today he’ll headline a Turning Point USA event in Phoenix. Nearly one in five Nevada voters is Latino, and in Arizona it’s closer to one in four. But polling shows Trump’s approval on the economy underwater among Latinos, and recent elections show them starting to flip back to Democrats or sitting out altogether.
The ongoing war in Iran, rising gas prices, housing costs and the hit to tourism are all factors making this a harder fight with the Latinos who vote with their pocketbooks in a state like Nevada, strategists and campaign operatives told Playbook.
It’s a problem that will run downstream to the GOP’s rank and file.
“For the first time, it’s not something that Trump has said,” one GOP operative granted anonymity to speak candidly told Playbook. “It’s his own actions” that are turning off some Latino voters. “I think ultimately, if this doesn’t get resolved, I think we see a lot of those Latinos who have been trending our way just stay home.”
Trump’s swing-state trip is part of the White House’s efforts to shore up support with the base, putting him front and center for those voters who may be tempted to sit out an election without him on the ballot. But the GOP’s biggest battles won’t be won with the MAGA faithful alone.
“This is not a base election. This is a persuasion election,” another GOP operative working on Arizona races told Playbook. “You need to be able to speak to voters who split their ticket.”
In 2024, a segment of Latinos in Arizona did just that, voting for Trump, Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Juan Ciscomani. And in Nevada, perhaps more than anywhere else, there’s an intersection of working class Latino men who increasingly don’t align with either party.
“In order for Republicans to hold the House, they’ve got to be almost 50 percent with Hispanic men — they’re not anywhere near that,” Madrid told Playbook. “This is a second, third, fourth generation, English-dominant, blue-collar, non-college-educated worker, U.S. born. Listens to Joe Rogan, not Ranchero music. That’s who they’re losing … That’s who they need to get back.”
This is the confluence of factors staring down at-risk Republican candidates as they figure out how to win these high-variance voters with campaigns dialed in on the economy and affordability — something campaign operatives describe as an increasingly Sysephian task.
They need Trump’s support to turn out the base, but they’ll have to put enough daylight to keep winning the Latino voters on the margins, Barnes told Playbook. A candidate like Ciscomani, who faces one of the tightest races this cycle, “has to prove to that middle-ground voter that he’s not owned by Trump, that he’s his own man, but he is a Republican and he supports the president,” Barnes said.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said Trump has “always been clear about temporary disruptions” because of the war. But he defended the tax cuts and said “the Administration hasn’t lost focus on delivering on our affordability agenda at home.”
But inevitably, the disapproval numbers among Latinos are clouding these key races, even in a state like Arizona where Republicans hold a notable voter registration advantage.
“All the issues that are front and center, that are either damaging to President Trump or help him out, are all intersected,” in the Sun Belt, the GOP operative told Playbook. “How we do there will be a bellwether for everything else.”
TRAIL MIX
ABOUT LAST NIGHT: Another week, another Democratic overperformance in a special election. Analilia Mejia will be the next member of Congress from New Jersey’s 11th District, triumphing over Republican Joe Hathaway by roughly 20 points, POLITICO’s Madison Fernandez reports. Mejia’s victory in these affluent suburbs was striking both for its size — the margin constituted a sizable swing from the 2024 presidential election — and because she pulled it off as a staunch progressive. (Moderate Mikie Sherrill was the district’s most recent member.) It was a smaller shift toward Democrats than other special congressional elections this cycle; notably, some heavily Jewish towns swung significantly to the right.
ANTHONY KENNEDY’S WORLD: This week’s first-quarter campaign fundraising reports didn’t just reveal which candidates are in strong positions. They also laid bare a new reality: Gobs of money are pouring into powerful super PACs — at levels unforeseen just a decade ago, and often from industries that barely existed then — with the potential to reshape American politics. POLITICO’s Jessica Piper breaks it down this morning: Seven super PACs already pulled in more than $50 million, a mark only five groups reached during the entirety of the 2018 cycle. Pro-cryptocurrency and pro-AI groups are huge, of course, but keep an eye on emerging players like the sports betting industry ($41 million).
None of them can touch Trump: MAGA Inc. is still No. 1 in the super PAC landscape.
Book club: FEC filings show California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s PAC helped inflate sales of his memoir, NYT’s Shane Goldmacher reports.
Primary colors: At least 10 congressional Democratic incumbents, many facing younger challengers, were outraised by primary competitors, NBC’s Bridget Bowman and colleagues report.
JUST VANCE: “Ahead of 2028, Vance Collects Cash, Chits and Contacts,” by NYT’s Teddy Schleifer and Shane Goldmacher: “[H]e has also been on a more under-the-radar campaign trail at more than two dozen R.N.C. breakfasts, lunches and dinners that are estimated to have raised more than $60 million.”
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Ad it up: The DCCC is going up with Spanish- and English-language digital ads hitting GOP incumbents over gas prices, with a focus on Latino voters. The Facebook and Instagram spots will target the districts of Reps. Monica De La Cruz (Texas), Cory Mills (Fla.), Laurel Lee (Fla.), María Elvira Salazar (Fla.) and Carlos Gimenez (Fla.).
IN THE WILDERNESS: “Democrats want the full 2024 election autopsy released — no matter the findings,” by NBC’s Natasha Korecki and Jonathan Allen
BEST OF THE REST
SCOTUS WATCH: It’s opinion day again at the Supreme Court, which means we could get a much-anticipated gutting of the Voting Rights Act at 10 a.m., or another major ruling … or not!
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: The FISA fights will continue until morale improves. In the wee hours this morning, the House passed a 10-day clean extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, after Republican infighting tanked a longer renewal Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson were pushing. It’s another big blow to Johnson and GOP leaders, who hope the extension buys time to negotiate, but it’s unclear how much they can do by April 30, per POLITICO’s Inside Congress. “The measure now heads to the Senate, where most members have gone home for the weekend. Passing the legislation before Monday’s expiration of the program would take unanimous buy-in. The House also canceled Friday votes.”
How’d we get here? House Republicans of various competing factions on FISA largely pointed fingers at the White House for not weighing in and unifying the party more quickly, POLITICO’s Meredith Lee Hill and colleagues report. (The White House said they’ve been briefing lawmakers on this for months.) Behind the scenes, DNI Tulsi Gabbard told Trump two months ago she wanted reforms to Section 702 and had privacy concerns, POLITICO’s John Sakellariadis scooped. She was unsuccessful in swaying him.
BAD REPUTATION: The U.S.-Israel war with Iran has damaged perceptions of the U.S. around the globe, particularly in the Muslim world, and could harm diplomatic ties, POLITICO’s Nahal Toosi scoops this morning. She obtained cables this week from U.S. diplomats in Azerbaijan, Bahrain and Indonesia who ask for the ability to rebut rising anti-Americanism more quickly online. Their missives “painted damning portraits of an America under siege in multiple media spheres by pro-Iranian actors that are exceptionally agile in the digital space.”
OUT LIKE A LYON: Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons will leave his role at the end of next month, CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez scooped. He’s expected to go to the private sector. It’s a big shift for one of the linchpins of Trump’s mass deportation project; the agency hasn’t had a Senate-confirmed director in nine years.
BACK TO THE FUTURE: Cameron Hamilton — ousted as acting FEMA director last year after breaking with Trump’s push to eliminate the agency — is back in line to be nominated for the role, NYT’s Tyler Pager and colleagues scooped. That’s another significant change in the works under new DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin.
TAKING SHOTS: Erica Schwartz is Trump’s new nominee to be CDC director, an apparently establishment pick who could mark an administration shift away from anti-vaccine policies. The former deputy surgeon general has supported vaccines, infuriating some MAHA figures, NYT’s Apoorva Mandavilli reports.
More health news: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be back on the Hill today for the next in a bevy of hearings, testifying before the House Education and Workforce Committee at 9 a.m. (Yesterday featured some striking clashes between Kennedy and Hill Democrats over vaccines, budget cuts and more.)
POLITICO HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: On Tuesday, April 21 at 9 a.m., administration officials, policymakers, industry leaders and experts will convene for conversations on the MAHA movement, mounting pressure over rising health care costs, the impact of AI, how health care will play into the midterms and more. Key speakers include: CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz, Mark Cuban, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Stephen J. Ubl, FDA Deputy Commissioner Kyle Diamantas, Marvin B. Figueroa, Marc Boom, Cathy Grason, and more. Register here to attend in person or watch the livestream.
THE WEEKEND AHEAD
FRIDAY PROGRAMS …
POLITICO “The Conversation”: Steve Hilton.
C-SPAN “Ceasefire”: Dana Stroul and Kirsten Fontenrose … T.W. Arrighi and John McCarthy.
PBS “Washington Week”: Leigh Ann Caldwell, Stephen Hayes, Jonathan Lemire and Michael Scherer.
SUNDAY SO FAR …
Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Harmeet Dhillon … Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) … Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas).
NBC “Meet the Press”: NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani … Emma Grede … Steve Kornacki with a new poll. Panel: Ashley Etienne, Sara Fagen and Jonathan Martin.
NewsNation “The Hill Sunday”: Steve Hilton. Panel: Jason Willick, Chuck Todd and Julia Manchester.
CNN “State of the Union”: Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.).
FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Daniel Cameron … Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) … Brent Sadler. Panel: Francesca Chambers, Sarah Isgur, Reince Priebus and Kevin Walling.
PBS “Compass Points,” guest-moderated by Lisa Desjardins: Curt Mills … Matthew Kroenig … Heather Conley … Jeff Rathke.
NEW IN THE MEDIA WORLD — NOTUS officially announced its rebranding plans: The rapidly growing news site will become The Star in early June, NYT’s Katie Robertson scooped. The newsroom update will include new coverage of local news and local sports, making up in part for mass layoffs at WaPo, with the journalist headcount expected to reach 95 by year’s end. Billionaire founder Robert Allbritton plans to contribute $30 million to boost the emerging outlet; the new name is also a nod to his father’s 20th-century newspaper, The Washington Star.
PLAYBOOK DESIGN SECTION — Trump’s big D.C. construction plans had a mixed day yesterday. A federal judge again blocked work on the White House ballroom, earning a Truth Social lashing from the president, per POLITICO’s Aaron Pellish and Kyle Cheney. Judge Richard Leon said the administration had been “brazen” and “disingenuous” in flouting his previous order.
Better news for Trump: His handpicked members of the Commission of Fine Arts gave the green light to the design for his skyline-altering, gilded Independence Arch near Arlington National Cemetery, per POLITICO’s Heather Richards and Rylan DiGiacomo-Rapp.
SPEAKING OF PRESIDENTIAL ARCHITECTURE — When Barack Obama’s presidential center opens in Chicago in June, its $30 adult entrance fee will make it the most expensive in the nation, WSJ’s John McCormick reports.
KENNEDY UNCENTERED — “What I Saw Inside the Kennedy Center,” by Josef Palermo in The Atlantic: “I spent 10 months working at the institution because I thought I could help protect it. What I observed there is far worse than the public knows.”
NOT GOING TO THE COTTAGE — Former first lady Jill Biden bid $35,000 — and lost! — to try to get a guest spot on the second season of “Heated Rivalry,” Variety’s Marc Malkin reports. It was part of an auction at the NYC LGBT Community Center’s Center Dinner.
OUT AND ABOUT — Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.) sat down with Leigh Ann Caldwell at a Puck Power Breakfast yesterday at Ned’s Club, hosted by the American Association of Railroads, to talk about the Iran war and renewing the surface transportation bill. SPOTTED: Ian Jefferies, Tammy Haddad, Chanse Jones, Billy Rielly, John McCarthy, Firas Ibrahim, Seval Oz, Erin Billings, Kelly Bourne, Brian Bartlett, Jay Driscoll, Matt Mowers and Cody Sanders.
— SPOTTED at Ford Motor Company’s reception honoring the military and veteran community yesterday evening in the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee chamber: Reps. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), Mark Messmer (R-Ind.), Cory Mills (R-Fla.), Jack Bergman (R-Mich.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) and Tom Barrett (R-Mich.), Jessica Carter, Caroline Morales, Joe Provenzano, Andre Welch, Alec Rogers, Robyn Jackson, Deanne Millison, Ben Khoshbin, Brucie Mish, Scotty Wofford, Lindsey Taylor, Penny Bolden, Joseph Lemay, Naomi Mathis, Kevin Miller, Jon Retzer, Leigh Edmonds, Tiffany Del Rio, Heather Kelly and Grace Shike.
— Bank of America hosted an event last night at the National Portrait Gallery to celebrate its role as a founding sponsor for the Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library, set to open July 4 in the North Dakota Badlands. It also showcased efforts from the bank and museum’s partnership to conserve up to 110 portraits from the America’s Presidents collection. SPOTTED: Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-N.D.), Brian Moynihan, Larry Di Rita, Jessica Oppenheim, Ed O’Keefe, Will Cappelletti, Greg Baer, Amanda Eversole, Adrienne Arsht, Linda Douglass, Peter Cook, Capricia Marshall, Sam Feist, Patrick Steel and Mark Lima.
TRANSITIONS — Alison Hirsh is joining Protect Democracy as chief impact officer. She most recently managed Brad Lander’s NYC mayoral campaign. … Michael Zetts is joining Levi Strauss & Co. as head of global policy and advocacy. He previously worked at Bully Pulpit International, and is a Tim Ryan alum. …
… John Gibbs is joining the Heritage Foundation as director of the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies. He most recently worked at HUD. … Robert Barron has joined Anera as its first policy and government relations adviser. He previously worked at the U.S. Institute of Peace.
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Colin Campbell, a freelance editor and Yahoo News and Business Insider alum, and Sarah Jorgensen, homepage programming editor at CNN, welcomed Cooper Lane Campbell on Saturday. Pic … Another pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.) and Brad Knott (R-N.C.) … Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte … NYT’s Julie Hirschfeld Davis … Sean Dalton … Dean Lieberman of DKL Strategies … Jim Acosta … POLITICO’s Andres Picon and Angelica Botlo … Shaunna Thomas … Leslie Dach of Protect Our Care … Chris Durlak … Dickinson Wright’s Jim Tyrrell … Ed Gilroy … Jane Oates of WorkingNation … Greg Lemon … Jackie Whisman of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation … Annie Coulson of Rep. Dwight Evans’ (D-Pa.) office … Jennifer LaTourette … Dylan Peachey of House Ways and Means … Axios’ David Lindsey … Jon Simons … Eric Sayers of Beacon Global Strategies … former Rep. George Holding (R-N.C.) … Bloomberg’s Jeffrey Horst … Alex Kellner … National Endowment for Democracy’s Franklin Bonner … Ken Jost … Marty Obst of MO Strategies … Jolie Libert of the Progressive Policy Institute
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Correction: An earlier version of Playbook misspelled Cameron Hamilton’s name.
