There are six matinees around Major League Baseball on Thursday – meaning first pitch before 3:40 p.m. ET – and on the surface, I wasn’t sure I liked any of them enough to make a play in this space. But then I did a deeper dive on struggling Guardians pitcher Slade Cecconi with him on the mound for a 2:10 ET first pitch in Kansas City in a series finale, and now I like the Royals.
Guardians-Royals FanDuel parlay (+120)
- Royals money line
- Alt Under 10.5
It has been a great week already for Cleveland in regards to its chances of repeating in the AL Central (+220 to do so) because preseason favorite Detroit lost two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal for up to three months due to elbow surgery. The Tigers have fallen to pieces in the few games since with that news, so the Central is there for the taking. No team in the division has a winning record as of this writing, but no club is more than 2.5 games out of first. Sometimes parity is fun.
The Guardians are winning how they usually do: Not really with their mediocre lineup (hitting a collective .230), but the rotation, bullpen and defense. That rotation is 11-13 with a 3.95 ERA, which obviously isn’t all that great, but those numbers are being hugely weighed down by Cecconi.
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The righty was a solid surprise last year at 7-7 with a 4.30 ERA in 23 starts, but the 26-year-old is 1-4 with a 6.56 ERA in seven starts this year. If you had bet $100 on Cleveland to win each of his starts, you would be down $485. That’s among the worst in the Show. The Guardians had been 0-6 in his outings before winning last Saturday in Sacramento, but Cecconi still allowed five runs and 10 hits (two homers) over 5 1/3 innings and was bailed out in the sixth by his bullpen.
Cecconi has allowed at least four earned in three straight starts and five of seven overall – his 26 earned runs allowed are among the most in the majors. He has surrendered eight homers among his 43 hits in just 35 2/3 innings. Last year, Cecconi was able to go at least five innings in 18 of his 23 starts and had two outings where he went at least eight. And since his MLB debut last May 17, Cecconi’s 32 homers allowed are among the most in MLB. Cleveland is 8-14 when he allows a home run and 5-3 when he does not.
There are a lot of issues, but Cecconi’s curveball has been a big one. Last year, batters hit only .141 with a .272 slugging percentage against that pitch. This year, they are batting .300 with a .600 SLG. Cecconi tries to keep that pitch low and below the strike zone, but it’s not going there often.
Perhaps Guardians manager Stephen Vogt should use an opener Thursday? Cecconi has a 7.71 ERA in the first inning but a 1.29 ERA in the second. His only career start vs. Kansas City was a memorable one last Sept. 8 at home as Cecconi took a no-hitter into the eighth. He finished eight scoreless with one hit allowed in a victory. For this one, the SportsLine Projection Model forecasts him at 5.9 innings, 4.3 strikeouts, 4.4 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs. That would be an upgrade.
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The front four of the Cleveland rotation is very solid in Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee (although he has struggled some), AL Rookie of the Year candidate Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo.
Thus, Thursday might well be Cecconi’s last chance to keep the No. 5 spot with Logan Allen perhaps waiting in the wings. The southpaw was optioned to Triple-A Columbus at the end of spring training, where Allen really struggled. But he made 29 big-league starts last year and had numbers comparable to Cecconi.
Kansas City goes with its best starting pitcher so far in veteran righty Seth Lugo (1-1, 2.68 ERA), who features a good 7-8 different pitches. He was crushed two starts ago by the Angels in a fluke but otherwise hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in an outing. Lugo generally goes six innings and provides a quality start. He took a no-decision in his lone 2025 start vs. Cleveland and is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in 26 career innings vs. the club. Guardians star Jose Ramirez is 2-for-12 off him with no extra-base hits.
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The model has Kansas City winning 4.2-3.6, and I’m a little surprised the money line is so cheap. I’d be fine with just that, but I know some of you don’t like numbers even -145 high, hence the alt total addition. Winds will be blowing out some and thus wanted to get Over 10 for a win in a 6-4 game. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.
