We are living in a moment in which big powers are finding it harder to subdue smaller, weaker adversaries and win wars. Russia expected the war in Ukraine to last 48 hours. President Trump banked on Venezuela-style regime change in Iran.
Neither of those worked out.
Now Israel is finding that its war in Lebanon, far from dealing a definitive blow to the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah, might be strengthening its resolve. Today I write about how, just as in Ukraine and Iran, drones have proved to be a headache for the country with the overwhelming military power — and what that means for Hezbollah now.
A missed opportunity, a failing strategy — and drones
Disarming Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed group that Israel considers a persistent threat, has long been Israel’s declared goal. And until earlier this year, my colleagues write, there was a window in which this could have happened.
The wars in Gaza and Lebanon that followed the Oct. 7 attacks on Israel left Iran’s regional allies, including Hezbollah, severely weakened. That gave Lebanon’s leaders — who would also love to see the group disarmed — scope to edge toward a deal. Under the terms of a 2024 cease-fire, Hezbollah would gradually surrender its weapons in exchange for an end to Israeli military operations in the country. It was the most promising moment for a reset in years.
Then the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.
Within days, Hezbollah was back in fighting mode, launching rockets toward Israel in support of its patron. Israel responded by marching into Lebanon with promises of eliminating the threat from Hezbollah “once and for all,” as the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, put it.
Now, three months on, Israel, despite a devastating offensive, is finding itself in a deadlock. Hezbollah is looking more capable than it did when the war began, not least because of its widespread use of drones.
And the window for disarming the group? That seems to have closed.
A longstanding headache
For decades, Hezbollah had operated as a state within a state in Lebanon. Its armed units were a rival power to the official Lebanese Army. It was a threat to Israel, intermittently firing rockets across the border. It was also a headache for successive Lebanese governments.
Hezbollah had long ruled out laying down its arms. But it was shaken after Israel killed the group’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, exploded thousands of pagers used by its members and decimated the group’s weapons stocks.
Talks about disarmament began in late 2024 as part of a truce between Lebanon and Israel. They accelerated after a new president and prime minister took office in Lebanon in early 2025, vowing to make disarmament a priority. Then, last August, the Lebanese military was instructed to draft a plan for dismantling Hezbollah’s arsenal by the end of the year.
I spoke to my colleague in Beirut, Abdi Latif Dahir. He told me that as recently as February the stars seemed aligned. “Western and Middle Eastern governments saw a rare opening to make disarmament happen,” he said.
Then the Iran war derailed the process.
From Israel’s perspective, it had other ways of achieving disarmament. It would do by military means what hadn’t been accomplished through diplomacy and politics.
But it hasn’t worked out that way.
The drone factor
The prospect of invading Lebanon “had Israeli leaders sounding almost giddy back in March,” my colleague David Halbfinger writes from Jerusalem. They’d be “sending their mighty tanks and infantry in to crush a weakened, vulnerable and somewhat rudderless Hezbollah.” They’d occupy a fat strip of Lebanese territory, which would serve as a buffer zone, pushing Hezbollah back beyond the range of its antitank missiles.
But they weren’t prepared for the one thing that has proved decisive in other recent wars: drones.
Hezbollah has used drones to hunt down Israeli soldiers and commanders both in Lebanon and in Israel, documenting the strikes in videos it then posts on social media. The result is a kind of stalemate, in which Hezbollah looks more capable than it did when the war began, David writes, and Israel Defense Forces soldiers can sometimes look “startlingly helpless.”
Abdi also told me that for Hezbollah supporters, the Israeli invasion has only reinforced the idea that the group is a crucial resistance movement to Israeli occupation.
Will the stars align again?
Israel isn’t the only party that wants to see Hezbollah disarmed. Lebanese supporters of the idea argue that the state should have a monopoly on the use of force, Abdi said. That could create more political stability at home and, crucially, prevent Lebanon from being dragged into regional conflicts.
Lebanon has been caught in the middle of power politics in the Middle East for decades. My colleagues have chronicled a familiar feeling among the Lebanese this week, as they found themselves following the back-and-forth between Israel, Iran and the U.S. that would determine their fate: the sense that decisions of war and peace are more often shaped by outside powers than by the Lebanese government or the Lebanese people.
There was a brief moment in which Lebanon might have been heading toward a future in which it controlled its own destiny a little more. Now, who knows when that moment will come again.
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Poaching salmon is a remarkably foolproof way to prepare a flavorful dinner. In this curry recipe, the salmon cooks in a pot of rich and fragrant coconut milk with sweet cherry tomatoes, chile and ginger. Serve over rice and garnish with herbs.
