After small military gains last year, Russia is now not only spinning its wheels in Ukraine but is actually worse off than before, pummeled by a combination of battlefield losses and economic hardship.
As it struggles on the battlefield, some experts warn that Russia may seek to regain the initiative by leaning into some of its most provocative tactics, such as sabotage in Europe and drone incursions into NATO territory.
After small military gains last year, Russia is now not only spinning its wheels in Ukraine but is actually worse off than before, pummeled by a combination of battlefield losses and economic hardship.
As it struggles on the battlefield, some experts warn that Russia may seek to regain the initiative by leaning into some of its most provocative tactics, such as sabotage in Europe and drone incursions into NATO territory.
On the front line, Ukraine is killing more Russians than Moscow can recruit. In May, Ukraine’s defense ministry counted 35,200 dead or seriously wounded Russians for the month of April based on battlefield video. That’s about as many as Russia recruits in a given month under a costly recruitment program that cannot be easily expanded without tough political choices. In recent months, Ukraine has also begun choking off Russian logistics through the use of new, intermediate-range explosive drones that prowl deep behind Russian lines.
Russia’s economy and society are also showing signs of stress. Weighed down by military spending, Ukrainian strikes on energy, and the diversion of the labor force into the military or defense industry, Russia’s economy is stagnating, raising the possibility of further centralization of the economy. An attempt to more tightly control the internet, meanwhile, has left many Russians angrier than they have been in years.
Russia has gained some economic relief thanks to higher energy sales on the back of the Iran war. But the war has also distracted the United States from its role as mediator between Ukraine and Russia, with Russia now left frustrated about the lack of progress.
This stagnation, in turn, is pushing the Russians to think about ways they can shift the balance in their favor, said Andrew Peek, a former senior director for European and Russian affairs at the Trump administration’s National Security Council: “They’re looking for ways they can regain escalatory initiative, if not the war initiative.”
Some signs suggest Russia may already be trying to seek new ways to intimidate. On June 2, Russia unleashed a massive attack on Kyiv, apparently seeking to increase fear by prominently telegraphing the attack and then hitting the Podilskyi district of the city, a historic neighborhood that is not typically targeted.
It’s unclear to what extent this may be part of a new trend of strikes. In an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested Russia might be planning to lean more on ballistic missiles, writing, “We also know that you hope ballistic missiles will achieve for you what everything else has failed to achieve.” Ballistic missiles are one of the few weapons Moscow possesses that Ukraine cannot easily shoot down, thanks to a lack of interceptors.
In a separate move, on May 29, a Russian attack drone slammed into a Romanian building near that country’s border with Ukraine, injuring two people and partially destroying an apartment. The drone was part of a wider attack of 43 Russian drones, which are frequently used to strike grain-exporting ports along the Ukrainian-Romanian border.
It is uncertain so far whether the strike was intentional, although Russia has previously flown unarmed drones through Poland. “I think it’s probable that they think that they’re indicating to Europe that this could get worse,” said Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Side by side with military escalation, Russia has also seemingly attempted a renewed charm offensive against the United States and Europe. Earlier this month, right-wing commentator Candace Owens as well as the man overseeing U.S. President Donald Trump’s ballroom, Rodney Mims Cook Jr., went to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, a marquee economic forum organized by the Russian government’s most senior members.
Owens has since posted multiple glowing accounts of Russia, getting an approving reaction from former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene: “We should be friends, allies, and trading partners with Russia,” Greene wrote.
While in St. Petersburg, Cook spoke at a roundtable and conveyed a “good hello” from Trump to Putin. A White House spokesperson referred Foreign Policy to the State Department when asked if Cook was attending the conference as Trump’s representative, as described by forum organizers. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress that he was “not aware” of an official U.S. delegation.
British activist Tommy Robinson and social media influencers Andrew and Tristan Tate also separately visited Russia in June. They gave similar rationales for visiting the country, with Robinson telling the Guardian that “I’ve come to see how this country got itself so well on to the straight and narrow,” and a Tate representative telling NBC News that they came to “see how the country works, understand how people live.”
Still, some experts doubt that Russia has much room to escalate at this point—and if it did, how much impact it would even have. “I’m not sure what that next step is out there,” said Steven Pifer, an expert at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank.
Within Ukraine, Russia is already hitting the country hard, Peek said. “They don’t really have much more vertical escalation left to go.” While Russia could increase ballistic missile strikes, its production capacity is limited, with no more than 50 to 70 strikes possible per month.
In Europe, Russia could lean more into the intimidation tactics that it is already using, like drone incursions or sabotage. Russia could also step up attempts to influence Europe politically, with a presidential election coming up in France next year.
However, Russia’s chances of success may be slim, with three recent separate elections, in Armenia, Hungary, and Moldova, ending in defeat for Kremlin-backed candidates. Meanwhile, Europe, spurred by U.S. political shifts, has doubled down on support for Ukraine with the recent implementation of a more than $100 billion loan.
Russian outreach to conservatives may also increase, Bergmann said. “What’s very clear is [the Russians] are trying to gain an audience with the [U.S.] president.”
Again, though, Russia faces a potentially difficult path. “There may be a charm offensive, but I’m not sure it’s at a particularly receptive audience,” Pifer said, noting the decrease in high-profile world leaders attending this year’s St. Petersburg forum relative to past years.
Owens’s visit generated intense criticism from other prominent right-wing media figures, such as Laura Loomer and Mark Levin, with Loomer separately posting about Russian influence operations and sending an employee to Kyiv to report on Ukraine.
In his public letter to Putin, Zelensky projected confidence. “The world has not grown tired of Ukraine, as you long hoped it would. But there is growing fatigue with Russia,” he wrote.
