For decades, people in the wealthy Gulf Arab nations watched the wars of the region unfold on their televisions. War happened to their neighbors — in Yemen, in Syria, in Gaza — but not to them.
That illusion was shattered by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. It upended these countries’ sense of security, hobbled their energy-rich economies and pushed them to reconsider defense strategies. The American military bases on their soil — rather than shielding them from any harm — had made them the targets for thousands of Iranian missiles and drones.
The fighting appears to be over, at least for now, and yet many in the Gulf countries worry that the deal emerging between the United States and Iran will do little to alleviate the threat that Iran poses to them, analysts say.
In a tacit acknowledgment of the Gulf’s concerns, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with several of the region’s Arab leaders this week, seeking to reassure them. He told reporters in Kuwait on Wednesday that the United States was “not going to do anything that undermines the security of our allies.”
Yet with their vulnerabilities exposed, the Gulf countries have been forever changed by the war. Many are now intent on boosting their hard power, spending more on military hardware and defense. The new mood is a palpable shift from the grand and optimistic projects that defined the region’s past decade.
“It’s left a big wound,” said Khalid Al-Jaber, executive director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, a research institute in Qatar. “It’s going to take a long, long time to recover.”
The scenes that unfolded over the past few months in Gulf cities like Dubai and Doha, including massive explosions and smoldering luxury towers, were once unthinkable to most residents.
Parents huddled with children in hallways as incoming missile alerts blared on their phones. In the Emirates, schools closed for weeks and some wealthy foreign residents fled. The only historical comparison that many in the region could draw on was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, more than three decades ago.
While the Gulf countries were able to intercept the vast majority of Iran’s missile and drone attacks, more than 30 people were killed and scores were injured.
Mohammed Baharoon, the head of B’huth, a research center in Dubai, said that the war set dangerous precedents in the region, arguing that actions by the United States, Israel and Iran had created a “facile type of attitude toward using brute power.”
“It’s almost like the Wild West now,” he said, pointing out that a cease-fire was several times “broken easily, without raising an eyebrow.”
As each government pursues its own approach toward Iran, the war appears to have widened differences between some Gulf countries, rather than unifying them.
The Emirates has doubled down on its alliances with the United States and Israel. Qatar has worked as a key mediator in efforts to negotiate a U.S.-Iran deal. Saudi Arabia has sought to keep its options open, trying to steer the Trump administration’s decisions while also maintaining channels with Iranian officials.
And Oman has drawn the ire of President Trump by engaging in talks with Iran over potentially imposing service fees in the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which Gulf states export oil and gas.
One of the most seismic shifts has come from Iran’s effective closure of the strait. The threat that Iran may one day close it again now hangs over the region and, as a result, the Gulf nations are rethinking how oil, food and other goods get in and out of their countries.
The Emirati government is pursuing a strategy of “zero Hormuz dependency,” expanding its ports outside the strait and building oil pipelines and railways, the country’s trade minister recently told Bloomberg. And the typically sleepy nation of Oman — which has ports on the Arabian Sea, hundreds of miles outside the strait — has become a crucial logistics hub for its neighbors, trucking goods to them overland.
The question looming above all of these shifts is whether the conflict is really over..
“We are terrified that this is going to be an ongoing war,” said Mr. Al-Jaber, the scholar in Qatar.
In public, Gulf leaders have welcomed the agreement to end the fighting, which had proved so catastrophic for their countries that few wanted it to continue.
At a Group of 7 gathering last week in France, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the powerful leader of the Emirates, delivered a message of gratitude to Mr. Trump.
“Thank you for your support, your commitment, to your friends,” he said, leaning forward in his seat. “It means a lot to us, and you showed us who is the real ally.”
Yet behind the scenes, analysts say, many Gulf officials feel a mixture of frustration and disappointment with their longtime allies, including the United States.
The preliminary deal between the United States and Iran made little mention of Gulf governments’ concerns, such as Iran’s missile and drone arsenal or its support for regional militias.
And on Monday, the Trump administration temporarily lifted oil sanctions against Iran, which could provide the country with an economic boon.
In a recent column in Asharq Al-Awsat, a newspaper, Abdulrahman al-Rashed, a Saudi writer who is close to the kingdom’s leadership, argued that the U.S.-Iran agreement “rehabilitates Tehran’s regime as a regional power.”
The financial benefits that it could confer “will make Iran a greater monster than it was before,” Mr. al-Rashed wrote.
American officials have also suggested that the Gulf states could contribute to a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, an idea that has received a frosty reception in the region.
Mr. Al-Jaber said that it feels like the Trump administration is looking at the Gulf “as an A.T.M.,” and that “bothers a lot of people.”
Mr. Rubio’s trip this week to the Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain underscored those tensions, even as he sought to emphasize that American officials were keen to take on board the points of view across the region.
“While we want a deal, we don’t want a deal at any price,” he said.
On Thursday, after a meeting with Gulf foreign ministers in Bahrain, Mr. Rubio told reporters that they had “shared with us some very concrete concerns,” and that he had pledged that their governments would be included “every step of the way” during the negotiations with Iran.
In his discussions, he did not raise the idea of Gulf governments contributing to the $300 billion fund, he said. Instead, Gulf officials told him that it was “of great interest to them” to receive their own funding for reconstruction, Mr. Rubio said.
In a speech during a meeting with Mr. Rubio, Abdullatif al-Zayani, Bahrain’s foreign minister, said that the region welcomed an end to hostilities “after the grave challenges we faced.”
“Today we see a glimmer of hope,” he said.
Still, postwar, “there’s a perception in the Gulf that deterrence against Iran has reduced,” said Mahdi Ghuloom, a Bahraini researcher — meaning that American and Israeli threats against Iran could be less effective going forward.
While Iran was battered by the bombing campaign, its government ultimately survived, and learned that it could deploy powerful tools like its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result, Mr. Ghuloom said, it is time for the Gulf countries to engage in their own, separate talks with Iran, potentially pursuing a nonaggression pact with their neighbor.
There could be a “silver lining,” he added, in the way the war has pushed Gulf countries to toughen up and adapt.
“We’ve proven to ourselves to be already more resilient than we thought we would be,” he said.
