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Coal-based steelmaking capacity has risen, driven by major investments in India that threaten to undermine a shift to cleaner production elsewhere.
More than 300mn tonnes a year of new coal-based blast furnace production has been announced or is under construction to date, a 5 per cent increase in the past year, according to a new report by Global Energy Monitor, a non-governmental organisation that tracks fossil fuel and renewable energy projects.
Refurbishments will keep 80mn tonnes of existing blast-furnace capacity in production, as manufacturers seek to extend the life of their assets.
The figures outstripped the 141mn tonnes of capacity currently due for retirement, said GEM’s annual steel report, published on Monday.
Global annual blast furnace capacity is more than 1,500mn tonnes.
Steel and iron production accounts for 11 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions and 8 per cent of overall greenhouse gas emissions, according to consultancy Global Efficiency Intelligence.
The sector has become a focus of efforts to tackle climate change as countries try to meet ambitious 2030 emissions-cutting targets.
Steel is traditionally made using coking coal to power blast furnaces that reduce iron ore to molten iron in the first step, but some companies are shifting to lower-carbon production methods such as electric arc furnaces, which melt down scrap steel using high-voltage electric currents. Others are exploring alternative ways to reduce overall emissions such as carbon capture and storage.
But progress on decarbonising the sector has been slow and requires billions of dollars of investment.
Electric arc furnace capacity increased 1 per cent in the past year to 34 per cent of total global production, up from 31 per cent in 2022, according to the GEM report.
A major expansion of steel production in India has been the main driver of growth in blast furnace capacity. According to Global Efficiency Intelligence, blast furnace processes account for 88 per cent of the sector’s total emissions.
India, the world’s second-largest steel producer after China, unveiled expansion plans in 2025 as part of its national steel strategy. The country has set a target of more than 400mn tonnes a year of steel production by 2035, up from some 200mn tonnes currently. Of this, blast furnaces will account for roughly 84 per cent of the initial ironmaking capacity in the process.
According to the GEM report, India is responsible for 60 per cent of blast furnace development globally and 11 per cent of electric arc furnace projects.
Astrid Grigsby-Schulte, the report’s author, said that India’s expansion plans had “the power to reverse any progress and entrench blast furnace-based steelmaking for the coming decades”, making it the biggest threat to decarbonisation in the sector.
The war in the Gulf had made a “strong case . . . for speeding up renewables-based green steel development globally to avoid supply chain disruptions . . . and to increase industry resilience”, she said.
Commodities data provider Fastmarkets last month cut its global crude steel production forecast by 42.8mn tonnes, citing supply disruptions caused by the conflict.
