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India has more than doubled import tariffs on gold and silver in an effort to shore up the rupee and mitigate the economic disruption caused by higher energy prices and the Iran war.
Rising oil prices are putting pressure on the Indian currency and foreign exchange reserves.
The government’s decision to increase the import duty for both gold and silver from 6 per cent to 15 per cent comes just days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked Indians to curtail spending, especially on fuel, foreign travel and gold, all of which contribute significantly to India’s growing import bill.
“A duty hike was going to happen after the prime minister’s announcement,” said Surendra Mehta, national secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, anticipating this would reduce demand for gold in one of the world’s biggest buyers by 10 per cent.
“The duty increase brings immediate relief to the government,” he said. “If they have to stop the falling rupee overnight, this is the only measure.”
The rupee, already weak, has fallen 5 per cent against the US dollar since the US and Israel began bombing Iran at the end of February.
It is now trading below 95.5 rupees to a dollar, despite multiple interventions by the central bank.
The central bank’s dollar reserves fell by $40bn in the first month after the war. India’s gold imports totalled $72bn in the year to March 31, up almost a quarter in terms of value on the previous year. The value of silver imports rose by nearly 150 per cent to $12bn in the same period.
Despite the weaker rupee, “India remained a key driver of global gold demand, ranking second in both jewellery and investment segments,” in the March quarter, the World Gold Council said in April.
India’s trade deficit for the year to end of March ballooned to $120bn from $95bn the previous year, buoyed by the rising cost of imports of energy, fertilisers and gold.
The rise in import duties would probably push domestic prices of gold up, analysts at Jefferies wrote in a report.
“While it is difficult to gauge the full impact, key implications could include: an impact on customer demand due to a further rise in gold (to the extent of a duty hike); and concerns about gold smuggling, especially from larger jewellers.”
Goldman Sachs estimated in a report in October that Indian households held gold worth nearly $3.8tn, equivalent to almost 90 per cent of India’s GDP. Gold was trading at just over $4,000 per ounce in October and has since risen to $4,700 an ounce.
“Its significance as a store of value, hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset have made it an invaluable asset for the Indian household,” Goldman Sachs said in the note.
Shares in listed gold merchants, such as Kalyan Jewellers and Thangamayil Jewellery, fell more than 5 per cent on the news while gold ETFs offered by ICICI Prudential and Nippon India, among others, jumped by more than 4 per cent.
