Iowa vs. Nebraska prediction, odds, spread, time: 2026 NCAA Tournament picks from proven model

The ninth-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes take on the fourth-seeded Nebraska Cornhuskers in a 2026 NCAA Tournament South Region Sweet 16 matchup on Thursday. Iowa is coming off a 73-72 last-second victory over defending national champion Florida on Sunday in the second round, while Nebraska defeated Vanderbilt 74-72 on Saturday. The Hawkeyes (23-12), who finished ninth in the Big Ten Conference at 10-10, have won two in a row. The Cornhuskers (28-6), who tied for second in the Big Ten at 15-5, have won six of eight.

Tip-off from Toyota Center in Houston is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The teams split their two regular-season matchups, with the home team winning each. The Cornhuskers are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Iowa vs. Nebraska odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 131.5. The Cornhuskers are at -129 on the money line (risk $129 to win $100). Before making any Nebraska vs. Iowa picks, check out the Iowa vs. Nebraska predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated Iowa vs. Nebraska 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Nebraska vs. Iowa:

Top Iowa vs. Nebraska predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Iowa vs. Nebraska, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (131.5 points). The Over has hit in seven of the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The Over has also hit in three of the last five Iowa games. Iowa is 5-5 against the spread in its last 10 games. Nebraska, meanwhile, is 6-4 ATS in its last 10.

The model projects the Hawkeyes to have three players score 9.8 points or more, including Bennett Stirtz, who is projected to score 19.8 points. The Cornhuskers are projected to have four players score 10.9 points or more, led by Pryce Sandfort, who is projected to score 18.6 points. The model is projecting 146 combined points as the Over clears in 68% of simulations in an A-rated pick. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Nebraska vs. Iowa picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Nebraska vs. Iowa 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Nebraska vs. Iowa, and which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Iowa vs. Nebraska spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.