Malinowski, who has not conceded the race, now trails Mejia by around 500 votes, with some outstanding votes left to be counted for the affluent, suburban seat.
AIPAC’s interventions in the New Jersey special election for Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s House seat was the first test of the group’s muscle ahead of the 2026 primary season, when they are expected to spend millions on Democratic primaries across the country. AIPAC’s super PAC is expected to weigh in on House primaries, starting in Illinois’ March primaries. Democratic candidates and strategists are also bracing for them to potentially wade into contentious Senate primaries in Michigan and Minnesota.
And their first foray of 2026 backfired spectacularly.
Matt Bennett, the co-founder of the center-left think tank Third Way, called their efforts “one of the greatest own-goals in American political history,” and warned that “It hurt everybody in the moderate movement” as they head into a competitive primary season.
Even steadfast allies are frustrated. Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), a longtime AIPAC supporter, said its moves in the New Jersey primary, held Thursday, “raised eyebrows this morning.”
“There’s a chance that it’s not going to be a New Dem that’s in that seat,” Schneider said, referring to the New Democrat Coalition, the centrist caucus he leads in the House. “As we do the analysis, a lot of factors play into that, but certainly any group spending against a candidate that would’ve been a New Dem and instead electing a far-left candidate … Come on, guys, this is not what we were hoping for here.”
Former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), another AIPAC supporter who led House Democrats’ campaign efforts in 2012 and 2014, said he “wasn’t privy to AIPAC’s strategy and I certainly wouldn’t have advised it,” but “they are not the first group to make a bet that didn’t pan out on election day.”
Malinowski said AIPAC’s attacks on him sent a clear message to “other mainstream Democrats.”
“They are now demanding 100 percent fealty,” Malinowski said. “On some level, they may have preferred to elect an anti-Israel progressive versus a mainstream Democrat, who departs from their hard line in a small way.”
A spokesperson for UDP said in a statement shared with POLITICO: “The outcome in NJ-11 was an anticipated possibility, and our focus remains on who will serve the next full term in Congress.” The spokesperson added that UDP will “be closely monitoring dozens of primary races, including the June NJ-11 primary,” which will be held ahead of the November 2026 general election, “to help ensure pro-Israel candidates are elected to Congress.”
Progressives, meanwhile, took a victory lap. Justice Democrats communications director Usamah Andrabi said AIPAC’s spending in primaries “is becoming a kiss of death” because “of the work our movement has done to expose them.” Mejia told reporters on Friday that she’s “glad that New Jersey 11 voters got to see the terrible tactics so that we could reject it in the future” and denounced AIPAC’s heavy spending.
Sanders, who rallied for his former adviser Mejia on the eve of the election, said Democrats are starting to realize that “not only is [AIPAC’s] policy bad, but it’s going to hurt me politically,’” and predicted candidates will start throwing the AIPAC spending back at them.
“I think you’re going to see a lot of candidates saying, ‘I’m being attacked by AIPAC. You should vote for me for that reason alone,’” Sanders said. “They’re going to turn it around because AIPAC is increasingly unpopular.”
Much of UDP’s playbook in the New Jersey primary has been deployed by them before — attacking candidates on issues unrelated to Israel. The group hit Malinowski in TV ads for a 2019 vote he took, along with most House Democrats at the time, that, in part, provided funding to Immigration and Customs Enforcement. ICE funding is a particularly hot-button issue, after President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown in Minnesota led to two fatal shootings of protesters by federal agents.
There are signs that AIPAC is already getting involved in Illinois. Two super PACs, Elect Chicago Women Now and Affordable Chicago Now, are now supporting three Democrats in House races with six-figure TV ad buys — which some of their primary opponents have publicly accused the groups of shell groups.
The super PACs were formed last month, so they have not yet been required to disclose any information yet with the Federal Elections Commission. UDP’s spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on these super PACs.
“We’re bracing [for AIPAC’s spending], yes, and it is alarming in a cycle where five seats are open, which almost never happens in Illinois,” said a Democratic strategist working on Illinois races, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “AIPAC is actively trying to buy three or possibly four seats.”
The winner of Thursday’s special primary election in New Jersey will face Joe Hathaway, a Republican councilmember from Randolph, N.J., on April 16, to fill the remainder of Sherrill’s term. Then, Democrats will hold another primary on June 2.
Though some centrist Democrats fretted that Mejia’s potential victory could hurt their chances to hold on to the seat, pollster Patrick Murray said a Republican victory is highly unlikely, both in the special general election in April or in November.
“It’s just so anti-Trump now,” he said. “We saw in the 2025 general election that there was more motivation among Democrats than Republicans. And that mood still holds.”
Of the upcoming primary season, where dark money from an array of outside groups is expected to saturate Democratic primaries, Malinowski called it “a significant challenge to the Democratic Party that needs to be addressed.”
“My election was the beta test,” he said.
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated the month in which Illinois holds its primaries.
Madison Fernandez and Matt Friedman contributed reporting.
