Have you caught your breath yet? The group stage of the 2026 World Cup was packed with memorable moments (how about Cape Verde?), and it’s hard to believe that it was merely the appetizer for three weeks of knockout international soccer on the world’s biggest stage.
After several days of head-spinning permutations and uncertainty about matchups, the bracket is now fully set. That means it’s the perfect time to judge some overreactions to the potential games in store for us, taking stock of which teams are is set up for success and which might be tumbling out of the tournament earlier than expected.
Let’s dive in, starting with the United States.
Jump to:
USMNT must make quarterfinals?
Argentina now tourney favorites?
End of the road for Mexico?
Thrilling round of 32 ahead?
1:55
How would Belgium fare in a potential Round of 16 clash vs. USA?
It’s quarterfinals or bust for the USMNT
Pay no attention to the final group loss to Türkiye — the United States played a starting XI made up almost exclusively of backups. When looking at the first two games, there’s not much to dislike. The first match, against Paraguay, featured some of the most breathtaking attacking play we’ve seen from the U.S. men ever. The win over Australia showed a different side to Mauricio Pochettino’s squad, one comfortable with building a lead and holding on to it without allowing even the slightest thought of a comeback.
Expectations and confidence have understandably skyrocketed for the U.S., and the FIFA algorithm awarded them one of the easiest possible opponents for the round of 32: Bosnia and Herzegovina. The DTAI Sports Analytics Lab out of KU Leuven, a research university in Belgium, gives Bosnia and Herzegovina the fifth-lowest Elo rating (a figure that captures the relative ability of each team based on recent results and strength of opponent) of any team in the knockout rounds.
Belgium stand as the Americans’ most likely opponent in the round of 16 (as they face Senegal), and though they have talent, anything less than a U.S. run to the quarterfinals would be a disappointment at this point.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
If Belgium hadn’t thumped New Zealand in the final matchweek to win their group, the path to the quarterfinals for the U.S. would’ve been even clearer. If both teams win their next matches, they’ll face each other in the round of 16. Even though keeping winger Jérémy Doku and midfielder Kevin De Bruyne in check would be an immense test for the U.S. defense, with the self-belief that appears to be coursing through the U.S. base camp in Irvine, California, they’d consider themselves more than capable of getting past the Belgians.
Could the U.S. go even further? It’s not out of the question. But if the first two rounds go as expected, it will have to go through tournament co-favorites Spain to reach the semifinals. That would require the Americans to play not only the best soccer of their lives but also a different style. Paraguay and Australia were happy to cede control of the game — the U.S. had 65.0% and 61.1% possession against those teams, respectively. Proving they can win without the ball, and applying the requisite pressure to Spain’s many superb technicians, would be an entirely different challenge.
2:07
How do you defend against Messi and Argentina?
Messi and Argentina are now favorites to win it all
Before the tournament, we asked 19 of our writers to make their predictions for World Cup champions (among many other things). All but three picked France or Spain — and none of those three picked Argentina. In fact, only eight of 19 expected Argentina to reach the semifinals.
Um, what was everyone thinking? Was it seriously impossible to think the reigning world champions wouldn’t be in contention right to the very end? They finished first in South American qualifying for the tournament and brought back most of the key players who made that 2022 title possible.
Six goals from Lionel Messi later, no one is sleeping on Argentina. And since the Albiceleste find themselves on the opposite side of the bracket from the two European pre-tournament favorites, it looks like a spot in the final is theirs to lose. (England and Brazil might protest, but neither have looked nearly as impressive, and Argentina would only have to face one of them en route to the final.)
Verdict: OVERREACTION
This is an overreaction less because of anything related to Argentina and more because France simply look so good.
In Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué, they have easily the most intimidating attacking quartet at the World Cup, and they played like it in the group stage. Four goals for Mbappé, three from Dembélé, Olise pulling all the strings with defense-splitting passes … it will take an epic defensive performance to shut down Les Blues. One notable stat: Their 18 through balls was the most by any team in the group stage, and through balls are the most dangerous passes in the sport.
France’s knockout round path isn’t the smoothest: They could easily run up against Germany, Netherlands and Spain even before reaching a potential final against Argentina (what we wouldn’t give for a rematch that lives up to the 2022 final!). But none of those teams would be looking forward to facing France in the least.
Still, Argentina should be considered at least solidly in second place among the favorites. And let this be the last time we underestimate a 39-year-old Messi — after many years of coveting the ultimate prize in international soccer, he could easily add a second-straight World Cup trophy to his cabinet.
1:37
Herculez Gomez: This was a perfect group phase for Mexico
Mexico won’t make it out of the round of 32
You have to feel for Mexico. Their tournament has gone as well as any El Tri fan could have hoped, as they won all three of their group-stage matches for the first time. It hasn’t always been smooth sailing — Czechia offered stiff resistance through 45 minutes, and South Korea actually won the xG (expected goals) battle 0.91 to 0.53 against Mexico — but it’s hard to complain about three straight clean sheets. We were even gifted with a late cameo from legendary 40-year-old goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa in the Czechia game, as he walked onto the pitch for his sixth World Cup to raucous applause.
Their reward for all their success so far? A round-of-32 match against Ecuador. The South American team had one foot on the plane home until a 77th-minute game winner off a set piece (facilitated by a surprising mistake from Germany goalkeeper Manuel Neuer) sent the squad back into the airport and out through the arrivals terminal.
The DTAI lab gives Ecuador the 14th-highest Elo rating in the tournament (Mexico are 12th), which is the highest of any third-place team that made the knockouts and better than any team Mexico have faced so far. They couldn’t have had much worse luck.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Two words: Estadio Azteca (sorry, “Mexico City Stadium,” per FIFA’s curious rules around branding).
The home advantage that the iconic stadium bestows upon the Mexico national team is well-known — in nine World Cup games Mexico have ever played at the stadium, they haven’t lost a single one. It’s considered one of the most intimidating fortresses to be a visiting player at for a reason.
The altitude of the venue plays a key role. At 7,300 feet above sea level (about 2,000 feet higher than the Denver Broncos’ Empower Field at Mile High), the Azteca can be an absolute nightmare to play at if you haven’t adjusted to the conditions, sapping stamina and leaving you gasping for air. Ecuador are far better equipped than most teams, as their home stadium, Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in Quito, has an elevation even higher than the Azteca (8,970 feet), but only two members of their squad play their club soccer in Ecuador.
Is a team that couldn’t put a single goal past Ivory Coast and Curaçao really going to be the one that finally beats Mexico at the Azteca? I wouldn’t count on it.
1:43
Burley: Cape Verde reaching knockout stages is a ‘great story’
The round of 32 might actually be … great?
Before the World Cup, there was a reasonable worry that the expansion of the tournament from 32 to 48 teams might cause unnecessary bloat. Through the group stage, at least, that fear seems totally off base.
Raise your hand if you foresaw Cape Verde finishing second in their group, ahead of Saudi Arabia and two-time World Cup champions Uruguay. No one? Sounds about right! Or what about South Africa sneaking into an automatic qualification spot, or Egypt reaching the knockout round for the very first time?
The takeaway is that more teams didn’t noticeably reduce the quality of matches overall — the most unbalanced matchups this year seem about the same as those from 2022. And there’s little reason to expect the round of 32 to be any different. France-Sweden and Argentina-Cape Verde are going to be a heck of a lot of fun, even if they might not have happened with the previous format
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The round of 32 is the biggest round of knockout games we’ve ever seen. It’s just math: More games means a greater chance of some surprise results. So not only will we get our standard knockout round excitement, we’re more likely to see a dramatic early departure of a Portugal or Brazil caliber of team. And if you prefer a more conventionally thrilling pairing of two strong squads, Netherlands-Morocco and Brazil-Japan are a pair of delightful matchups on paper.
If there’s anything we’ve learned at this World Cup so far, it’s that no team should be overlooked or taken for granted.
