After disastrous elections for Labour in England, Scotland and Wales last week, the mood in Britain’s governing party is so rebellious that calls are growing for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign.
Mr. Starmer, who won a landslide victory in 2024, has not only rejected that idea from some in his party, but, in an interview with The Observer newspaper, suggested he could stay in power for 10 years.
But one Labour lawmaker and former minister, Catherine West, has called on the cabinet to mount a putsch against the prime minister, warning that, if it fails to do so, she could attempt to trigger a leadership contest herself.
Britain has changed its prime minister five times in a little more than a decade. Could it be about to happen again?
What prompts a Labour challenge?
The center-right Conservative Party has frequently replaced unpopular prime ministers, but it has rules different from those of the Labour Party, which has done this rarely. The last time was in 2007, when Tony Blair was forced out, but that was after he had been 10 years in Downing Street, and he ultimately agreed to step aside.
To trigger an election to replace the prime minister under Labour’s rules, a challenger would need the support of 81 Labour lawmakers, 20 percent of the total. Mr. Starmer would automatically be on the ballot, and the final decision would be taken by party members.
Ms. West does not so far seem to have the numbers in Parliament and is not presenting herself as a credible alternative prime minister. Her idea appears to be to force the pace of change, either by prompting a cabinet rebellion or by flushing out other potential successors to Mr. Starmer and forcing them to make a run against him.
But if neither of those two things happen, she seems willing to run as a so-called stalking horse candidate — if she can get enough support.
Mr. Starmer is scheduled to make a speech on Monday, and Ms. West says that if what he says is a disappointment, she will approach other Labour lawmakers to ask for their backing.
Could Mr. Starmer survive?
If the contest were against Ms. West, the cabinet remained loyal and credible contenders did not break cover, Mr. Starmer could expect to thwart the challenge.
In 2016, Jeremy Corbyn, then leader of the then-opposition Labour Party, survived a leadership contest with Owen Smith, who moved against him after his party’s lawmakers overwhelmingly backed a motion of no confidence in Mr. Corbyn.
Confronted with internal feuding, a Conservative prime minister, John Major, precipitated a leadership election himself, in 1995, and won it.
But facing any sort of contest risks denting a prime minister’s authority. In 1989, the Conservative prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, was challenged by Anthony Meyer, a political figure so little known that he was derided as a “stalking donkey.” Mrs. Thatcher won, but one year later, she was forced out.
Who are the realistic contenders?
The political momentum is with Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, in northern England, and the only senior Labour figure who seems significantly more popular with voters than Mr. Starmer, according to opinion polls. The snag is that he would have to win a seat in Parliament before mounting a challenge.
In his absence, Angela Rayner, the former deputy leader, is probably the favored candidate of the left of the party. She resigned last year, however, over a tax imbroglio, which is still unresolved.
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, has support on the right and is an effective communicator. But he has been damaged by links to Peter Mandelson, who was fired as Britain’s ambassador to Washington when the depth of his friendship with the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was revealed.
Other possible contenders include Ed Miliband, the energy secretary; Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary; Yvette Cooper, the foreign secretary; and John Healey, the defense secretary.
Why do some favor a delay?
Most analysts say Mr. Starmer is so unpopular that he is unlikely to lead Labour into the next general election, which must take place by 2029. But whether now is the right time to make a change is a different question.
Mr. Burnham’s supporters want to delay any challenge to give the Manchester mayor time to win the Parliament seat he needs to become a contender. Even some neutrals say it would make little sense to have a contest to replace Mr. Starmer without Mr. Burnham.
Another reason for a delay could be the volatile global situation. While Mr. Starmer has made a succession of domestic policy errors, his handing of the Iran war has been popular with voters. The crisis in the Middle East has hit Britain’s economic prospects, giving any potential successor prime minister a difficult inheritance.
And while top opposition politicians have called on Mr. Starmer to quit, if he were to do so, they would point out that his successor had no mandate from the voters. Calls would grow for a snap general election, which Labour looks ill-prepared to fight right now.
