Lose UCL playoff, and Simeone’s Atlético reign could be over

The last time Diego Simeone lined up an Atlético Madrid side in the Champions League, he was in touching distance of that coveted top-eight finish which would have earned his club a succulent €18.2 million bonus and saved them two deeply unwelcome and risky extra knockout matches.

Exactly three weeks later, when the Argentine coach lines Atleti up against Club Brugge on Wednesday for the first leg of their playoff to reach to round of 16, it’s arguable that the future of the most successful coach in Los Rojiblancos’ history is in real jeopardy.

Here’s why: Atleti have stunk the house out in 2026.

Evidence? Two wins out of six in LaLiga, the last three without scoring — two of which were against relegation teams. Now Atleti are 15 points behind the leaders Real Madrid.

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In the Champions League, that top-eight finish was begging them to gobble it up, earn the aforementioned €18.2 million bonus and avoid dangerous knockout matches — but Atleti fluffed their lines, took one point from six, and were left with their noses pressed against the window marked “Elite.”

Worse, the embodiment of that embarrassment was one of their most humiliating European performances, losing 2-1 to Bodø/Glimt in Madrid.

Had they beaten the novice Norwegians 4-0, Atleti would have finished in the top eight and barged Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City off the high table in the process. It would have been a huge boost; invaluable to club coffers and allowed vital respite for tired players. But, despite leading 1-0, Atleti collapsed against Bodø/Glimt — humbled by a club from a 48,000-population city in its debut Champions League campaign.

Set against that is Simeone’s team winning 5-0 and 4-0 against Real Betis and Barcelona, respectively, in the Copa del Rey. Results that grab your attention and, temporarily, demand respect. But Atleti, with the consistency of their competitive mentality about as strong as a wet paper bag, backed up their thrashing of Betis in Seville by losing 1-0 at home to the very same team three days later for the equivalent LaLiga fixture.

And that stirring dismantling of Hansi Flick’s Spanish champions in the Copa semifinal first leg? That was immediately followed by a performance of craven surrender when Atleti faced third-bottom Rayo Vallecano (15 places and 23 points lower than Simeone’s team) but slumped to a 3-0 defeat — registering their worst loss to Rayo since 1981.

It’s revealing when most the damning words for such Jekyll-and-Hyde performances, which would make any team, not just Atleti, look extremely badly coached and inefficiently led, come from your own goalkeeper. But Jan Oblak, clearly still stunned and fuming at the quality of his teammates’ display against previously hopeless Rayo (in the relegation zone before kick-off) didn’t hold back on Spanish TV on Sunday afternoon.

“After this, it looks like we’ve tossed any chances of winning the league away,” he said. “You can’t lose matches in this manner.

“You can’t put in that kind of match display. Performing like this it’ll be difficult for us to be competitive.

“You can’t pick and choose matches in which to perform. You need to play to your maximum all the time and we haven’t done that here. Congratulations to Rayo — they were much better than us — we deserved to lose.”

Note the “will be extremely difficult for us to be competitive.” Oblak was referring to challenges to come in the Champions League and Copa del Rey semifinal second leg. They are some deeply pessimistic words from a guy who is playing his 102nd Champions League match on Wednesday.

What made matters worse was that his coach, Simeone, immediately argued that the big Slovenian was talking rubbish: “I don’t agree with what Oblak said. The team doesn’t choose matches; we played poorly, and when the rival plays better, and is superior they beat you.”

Well, that’s alright then Diego! It’s only that your team plays poorly and the rivals are better. Phew! No problems there. What a chancer.

Somehow, Simeone still gets away with trotting out that kind of banal nonsense. It’s a great mass-hypnosis act to argue that the only problem you have is playing poorly and being out-done by your opponent and, using that tactic, somehow turn attention elsewhere. Those are the very pieces of evidence which, at any other club, gets you sacked.

To put things in context, particularly given that Atleti are alive and kicking in two knockout competitions, let’s look at where Simeone’s team is currently, compared to the last decade in LaLiga. Only twice in the last 10 years have Atleti been worse statistically than they are right now.

Those were after Matchday 24 in 2020 and Matchday 24 in 2022 — the first just as the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, and the second at a time when Simeone subsequently admitted that he began to believe that his time was up.

A few months after that 2022 trough, the Argentine was asked by Diario AS: “In those weeks before the last World Cup, did you feel like the cycle was ending?”

Simeone responded: “Without a doubt, it was the worst part of all my years at the club. I’m not stupid. I saw, just like you, that the team was playing badly, that it lacked identity, commitment, effort, and that its passing didn’t inspire confidence.”

Rather like now, in fact. Reliable word has it that, ath the time, the Atleti directors were getting ready to say: “Thanks for the memories!” and “Adiós!” to Simeone until his team revolutionised itself, upped its performance level and started surging up the table.

Fast-forward to today, and Simeone remains a hot topic around Atleti’s ownership, media and fans.

He’s the longest-serving coach of a Spanish club in history but — after a blitz of trophies when he arrived, when the side was buzzing with vitality, standards were higher, and Simeone was able to coach his defence into extreme stinginess — the club’s habit of lifting silverware has been traded for settling for being a cash-cow.

No trophies in the last five years, just one in the last eight — but, for example, €85 million filling the coffers from the revamped Champions League cash-printing machine last season when Atleti made it to the last 16.

It was after that otherwise disappointing season finished that Simeone admitted to Spanish radio in June 2025: “One or two friends advised me that this was the time to leave Atlético.”

Why? Well, there’s a new broom coming at the club. Atlético Madrid are in the process of drastic ownership change, thanks to share purchase from US investment company Apollo Sports Capital — and their financial stake will have been based on actuarial calculations about the future, not on Simeone’s once-glorious past.

Simeone has a new, sceptical, boss in the shape of Mateu Alemany, who’s widely understood to be weighing up the candidacy of both Villarreal’s Marcelino and Atleti legend Fernando Torres, who is currently in charge of their B-team.

What hasn’t changed, what never changes, is that the club feeds off Champions League progression and the vast financial injection they require that to bring them.

Maybe this season brings a trophy-lift for Simeone; someone, who so often “Houdinis” his way out of a bind.

Alternatively, should Simeone’s team “play badly” and be “out-performed by their rival” in Bruges this midweek, it’ll be treated far more seriously than the unpalatable but oh-so “seen-it-all-before” defeats to Bodø/Glimt, Betis and Rayo these past few weeks.

Simeone’s reputation and job are on the line.