“Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu” got off to a strong start at the box office, analysts said on Sunday. The movie was on pace to collect about $102 million from Thursday through Monday in North America, easily enough for No. 1.
But this was never just about selling tickets.
“The Mandalorian and Grogu,” a PG-13 fantasy, marks a reboot of sorts for the “Star Wars” franchise, which has been absent from movie screens for nearly seven years. Disney decided in 2018 that it had pushed too hard when it had tried to make a “Star Wars” movie every year; the fandom was not expanding as the company had hoped, particularly among children.
But hitting the brakes resulted in a slowdown in crucial related businesses, notably sales of themed merchandise like toys, bedsheets, clothes and collectibles.
In looking to breathe new life into the franchise, Disney decided that “The Mandalorian and Grogu” was its best option. Grogu, colloquially known as Baby Yoda, had been a merchandising star when first introduced in a Disney+ series in 2019. The little guy (he stands 14½ inches tall) could also help Disney attract children to theaters in larger numbers, the company said. Studios periodically try to “age down” movie franchises in an effort to appeal to new generations of consumers.
“The Mandalorian and Grogu” could also renew interest in “Star Wars” theme park rides, the company decided. In recent weeks, the characters were added to the Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run attractions at Walt Disney World in Florida and Disneyland in California. (In the words of MickeyVisit, a site unaffiliated with Disney that focuses on theme park vacation planning: “Grogu waves. It’s adorable.”)
Critics were not particularly impressed by “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” which was directed by Jon Favreau. The Mandalorian, an intergalactic bounty hunter, wears a face mask during most of the movie, which some critics said made emotional connection difficult. Also off-putting to some: Baby Yoda, while high on the cute scale, mostly speaks in gibberish.
But ticket buyers seemed to like it. The Rotten Tomatoes audience score stood at 89 percent positive on Sunday, the highest for any “Star Wars” movie since Disney took over the franchise in 2012. In exit polls conducted by PostTrak, a film industry research service, 54 percent of children under 12 gave “The Mandalorian and Grogu” a rating of “must-see right away.”
The movie cost Disney roughly $300 million to make and market worldwide. Overseas, “The Mandalorian and Grogu” was on pace to collect an additional $63 million opening weekend, for a global total of roughly $165 million.
Comparisons with other Disney-made “Star Wars” movies are difficult because theaters as a whole lost about 20 percent of their customer base during the Covid-19 pandemic. The previous “Star Wars” movie, released in 2019, was also the culmination of a nine-movie series, which boosted its performance.
The best comparison may be “Solo: A Star Wars Story,” which arrived on Memorial Day weekend in 2018 and featured a young cast in an attempt to appeal to younger ticket buyers. It took in $103 million over its first four days in domestic theaters, or about $138 million after adjusting for inflation.
“Solo” cost about $400 million to make and market, or about $537 million in today’s dollars, making “The Mandalorian and Grogu” a far better return on investment for Disney.
For the weekend in North America, “Obsession,” a low-budget horror movie from Focus Features and Blumhouse, was expected to place No. 2 at the box office. It was on pace to take in a robust $28 million from Friday through Monday, for a two-week total of about $59 million.
“Michael,” the Michael Jackson movie from Lionsgate, was expected to place third in its fifth weekend in theaters, generating an estimated $26 million in ticket sales and lifting its domestic total to $320 million.
